John Cluverius

politicalwire.comTroy Jackson Slightly Ahead in Maine Senate Race

6.6 MoE marist what are you doing baby

Taegan Goddard@politicalwire.com

Troy Jackson Slightly Ahead in Maine Senate Race https://politicalwire.com/2026/10/27/troy-jackson-slightly-ahead-in-maine-senate-race-2/?ap=b

like maine is tough tough tough to poll. i get it. but at some point idk trim the weights and pray?

goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.comAnti-trans campaign ads are a bad strategy. Social scientists should say so.If we care about democracy, we should not tolerate this

13h

100% agree with Dr. Azari on both points here. I've tried, as a social scientist, to give my best read of the opinion data on trans rights. But I will co-sign any of this.

Julia Azari@juliaazari.bsky.social

Social scientists have lent our names to calls for electoral system change and rule of law, because of the findings of our disciplines. We should do the same for anti-trans ads, which have dubious benefit and demonstrable harm. My latest at GP/BP goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/social-sci...

15h

Cyndi Lauper's assertion that more people vote for American Idol than vote for president is incorrect. The Season 10 final holds the record for the most votes at about 122 million; a year later 129 million people cast votes for president.

15h

i fucking love Cyndi Lauper though. All covers of Cyndi Lauper songs are *bangers*

15h

no pub sub for you, buddy

Olúfẹ́mi O. Táíwò@olufemiotaiwo.bsky.social

"Under Brazilian federal law, all legislators have immunity...To run for President, Bolsonaro decided not to run for his Senate seat. Now, after losing the Presidential election, he no longer has legislative immunity when his Senate term expires in January 2027." Very Special Episode of no amnesty

i *want* elected Democrats, Dem candidates, and Dem consultants to hear the truth about trans rights and public opinion. I am extremely unsure of the best way to get them to hear that message.

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they won't hear that in 2026, polling data shows that 1) most americans trust Democrats more on trans issues, 2) the people who care most about trans issues are democrats by a 2-to-1 margin, and 3) most Americans hold contradictory positions on trans rights, a sign they don't have clear preferences

so...what will they hear from this election? I genuinely don't know. it took mainstream Democrats 18+ months to hear that Dem voters didn't like AIPAC, and that a majority of Americans favored a ceasefire and arms embargo.

i *want* elected Democrats, Dem candidates, and Dem consultants to hear the truth about trans rights and public opinion. I am extremely unsure of the best way to get them to hear that message.

they won't hear that states that were saturated with "she's for they/them" went better for Harris, relative to 2020, than states that didn't.

they won't hear that in 2025, Abigail Spanberger didn't even flinch at a bunch of blistering anti-trans ads. she took the moderate position, which is let states and governing boards figure things out.

People forget that Brexit was non binding. They could have held a do-over.

one dozen bats at a keyboard@panasonicdx4500.bsky.social

Brazil’s results tonight are a big endorsement for the idea that every country should have a second “are you you sure about that” election a couple weeks after the first one for the important stuff

I genuinely wonder whether the opinion turn in the U.S. on this is about affordability.

David Brauer@dbrauer.net

Lula won in part by banning online gambling

A strong socialist missing a finger has won the presidency in Brazil, which portends the rise of a neoliberal shill missing only half of one in the United States. Rahm 2028.

Attention candidates feel free to throw pollsters and pollsters under the bus to protect the dolls

BeshearStan@beshearstan.bsky.social

Kansas Dem Sen. nominee Adam Hamilton on trans rights: “I don’t think we should take a small group of people and bully them, pick on them, and hurt them. I understand one thing really clearly when it comes to transgender people, and that is Jesus told me I was to love my neighbor as I love myself”

Just in case everyone forgot, the Medicaid cuts hit after the election.

This is a weird question to ask @dieworkwear.bsky.social but…can moth damage be repaired by a professional and how, other than cedar block hangers, can I keep moths from making a buffet of suits and sweaters?

You never know where the red line is until you cross it.

Asawin Suebsaeng@swin24.bsky.social

An understandable response I’ve seen to this is “oh so THAT’s where they draw the line?” and as awful as other things have been, with this candidate/party/president, ok yes: this actually seems like a fine place to draw a moral red line

Important correction from @forhanforohio.bsky.social : 2) is not correct it’s Dems who care most about trans issues by like 2:1 in the same pew poll that shows 3)

John Cluverius@johncluverius.bsky.social

1) very few people know trans people personally, so very few people care that much about trans issues 2) most people who care a ton about them are GOPers who don’t trust any Dem on trans issues. 3) yet the public broadly trusts Dems more on trans issues 4) Dems don’t win votes by being anti-trans

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Especially bc they don’t need Turek to win the Senate. If this were the obvious pivot seat sure, but Dems have a big map to play on

Thanks again to @forhanforohio.bsky.social for setting me right on this my head is so far up my own polls right now that I’m admittedly not reading new stuff as thoroughly as I should.

Important correction from @forhanforohio.bsky.social : 2) is not correct it’s Dems who care most about trans issues by like 2:1 in the same pew poll that shows 3)

John Cluverius@johncluverius.bsky.social

I’ve long asserted that Dems can choose their own adventure on trans issues and not win or lose votes, so it’s a moral question. That may still be true, but the risk of demobilizing your own voters (to say nothing of volunteers and donors) looks more and more present to me.

Josh Turek opening ad: I grew up poor in a wheelchair so I know what it’s like to be a kid who feels like they were born wrong Josh Turek closing campaign ad: some kids should feel like they were born wrong

Erin Reed@erininthemorning.com

Josh Turek of Iowa, Democrat, comes out with one of the worst anti-trans ads yet. Not only is it an anti-sports ad, it proposes a ban on federal funding for gender affirming care. That would hit all medicaid and medicare patients, and any ACA federally-subsidized plans as well. Horrific.

In the immediate sense, because Dems don’t win or lose on trans issues, they can say what they actually believe. But people take opinion cues from leaders. So more anti-trans Dem elected officials => more anti-trans Dem and independent *voters*

Per our last @umlcpo.bsky.social / @today.yougov.com poll, 70% of likely voters (including 54% of those who voted Trump in 2024) oppose construction of an AI data center in their community. uml.edu/polls

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

Trump on data centers: "I say let them come in ... you should really be cool on data centers because you can make a fortune with the data centers" (Note the total silence of the crowd during this rant!)

“It almost cost me my career” no it didn’t you fucking loser.

Micah@rincewind.run

every male college professor apparently needs to be given a starter pack here is your office, here is your chair, here is a buzzer that will shock you every time you think about fucking one of your students

“I am very charming also I cannot talk my way out of a wet paper bag.”

@possiblecabbage.bsky.social

Wait, this is the whole thing!!! OH MY GOD! He got a talking to from a Dean.

John Cluverius reposted

Possible Cabbage 🟢

Replying to @rincewind.run

In graduate school I had no fewer than 5 different mandatory seminars that boiled down to "Do not date students ever, no exceptions, yes this means you, no your justification doesn't matter" and I'm increasingly coming to realize that this wasn't enough for some people.

washingtonsun.comWhite House Is Weighing Mass Pardons for Junior StaffConservative groups influential with the Trump administration have pressed for the preemptive acts of clemency.

Have they tried weighing making stuff cost less?

Jeff Stein@jeffstein.bsky.social

Scoop: White House lawyers are weighing preemptive mass pardons for junior staff, sources says Under discussion: Pardoning everyone involved in deportation, war, or trade policy www.washingtonsun.com/whitehouse/w...

i said brussels sprouts but public health overall has drastically improved in my lifetime on a *ton* of dimensions. also violent crime and homelessness!

Colette Delawalla, PhD@cdelawalla.bsky.social

The 5-year cancer survival rate is up to 70% SIDS deaths have decreased by over 50% 89% decline in tornado deaths All thanks to federal investment in science and OUR tax dollars at work!

Brussels sprouts

Michael Druker 🇨🇦@mdruker.app

Social media loves talking about how everything is getting worse. But what’s something that you’ve seen get _better_ in your lifetime?

Just so we’re clear, Sarah Longwell was a big wheel in the firm that was the basis of Thank You for Smoking, a PR operation that ran cover for the tobacco, fast food, soda, alcohol, restaurant, and meat industries. Notable opponents of the minimum wage!

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Notably consistent across age cohorts

ElectionCord@electioncord.com

According to a YouGov/UMass Lowell poll released today, 58% of people would support a law banning online or app-based sports gambling and prediction markets (Kalshi/Polymarket was a listed example).

lol @bedford.bsky.social if you want to talk about Hasan we have fave/unfaves for him in our latest national poll

No war but poll war

G Elliott Morris@gelliottmorris.com

Our investigation into allegations of data fabrication at the firm SoCal Strategies, and an alleged association with the admittedly fraudulent firm Wedgewood Polls, has resulted in the pollster wiping itself from the face of the earth. Full story at 50+1: blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/more-polls...

this is *wild* but expected.

Jake Grumbach@jakemgrumbach.bsky.social

There is little meritocracy or competition when it comes to Democratic consultants—they get paid the same regardless of how their candidates perform in the election.