John Conor Ryan

John Conor Ryan

@johnconorryan.bsky.social

Co-founder: Calx.info English, Irish. Californian. Physicist, writer, learning to play jazz on cello. Co-steward of https://getdweb.net/principles/ ... values for the Web we deserve.

2.1K followers978 following2.5K posts

As you read: A New Mexico court ordered Meta to pay $25B for privacy deception tied to Cambridge Analytica. In August, 46 other states and 2 territories settled their own Cambridge Analytica claims against Meta for about $459M combined. Same company. Related conduct.

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And even record awards are measured in tens of billions. The external costs of industry run to trillions of dollars a year. Our count at Calx already passes $10T, and expect them to top $30T/year. Courtroom lotteries can't close that kind of gap.

What's missing is a common method: costs traced to their causes and grounded in published evidence, with assumptions open to challenge, usable before a case is filed, not after a verdict. Our note on the Meta cases and the absence of a method, in the Calx Ledger: www.calx.info/ledger/theab...

calx.infoMeta Settlements and the Absence of a Method — Calx Analytics A list of settlement figures looks almost comically disparate, and speaks not to the difference in harms absorbed by each state but to the variance in legal proceedings. This is the peculia...

As you read: A New Mexico court ordered Meta to pay $25B for privacy deception tied to Cambridge Analytica. In August, 46 other states and 2 territories settled their own Cambridge Analytica claims against Meta for about $459M combined. Same company. Related conduct.

That's nearly $12,000 per resident in New Mexico and under $2 everywhere else. A 6,000-fold range. That's wild The judge found the law would allow more than $219B, then set $25B without explaining how. The other states negotiated. The number followed the venue, not the harm. That's nonsense.

This is what a stochastic process looks like. Whether a harm is ever priced, and at what figure, depends more on who sues and where than on what was actually lost. It is also slow. Litigation arrives years after the costs have landed on people and institutions that never agreed to carry them.

John Conor Ryan reposted

Replying to @marisakabas.bsky.social

A serial rapist was elected twice as President, a fact we don't reckon with nearly enough. Now one of two major political parties has been molded in his image, run for and by violent sexual abusers who hate women.

Business schools are not malfunctioning institutions; they are highly efficient machines doing exactly what they were designed to do. An ethics elective here, a sustainability center there, a “responsible leadership” badge — they all serve to legitimize the machine, not change its output."

When a chemical plant injures its workers or pollutes a community, the costs of dealing with the damage can actually increase GDP. Medical treatment, environmental cleanup, and other responses to industrial harm all generate measurable economic activity.

That's obviously nuts if one wants to measure the true strength of an economy. NEO sets the harms of activity - like a fireball accident or pollution AND the costs to deal with them - as negatives, not positives. As they should be.

GDP tells us what an economy produces, but it does not tell us what that production costs society. What if we measured both? We introduce NEO (Net Economic Output), a complementary measure designed to make the hidden costs of economic activity visible, and identify opportunities to reduce them.

John Conor Ryan reposted

In 2021, researchers from Harvard and Birmingham/Leicester (UK) modeled the mortality impacts of air pollution. They attributed 355,000 deaths per year in the US to fine particulates from fossil fuel combustion (Table 1; 95% confidence interval: 212k to 490k). That's about 10% of all US deaths.

What the anger at AI data centers and the Suncor v Boulder case now at SCOTUS have in common is that industry's grossest externalities are already on the agenda. But, they're caught between justified anger and ill-equipped judiciaries. This is not a path to rational resolution. #econsky

There needs to be a better way. Understand that industry's externalized harms already total an astounding total of $30 trillion per year, equivalent to nearly 30% of the world's entire economic output.

Then it's evident that the data center fracas and the fight over oil's responsibility for the climate crisis are just the most in-our-faces example of unpriced systemic risk. It's time to systemically price externalities. Unpriced is not unpaid. www.calx.info/ledger/unpri...

calx.infoUnpriced Does Not Mean Unpaid — Calx AnalyticsA cost excluded from one balance sheet will always appear on another. It appears in a household’s medical expenses, an insurer’s losses, a government’s adaptation budget, a farm’s diminished output, o...

We know a black hole's mass to a few percent, but not our own harms within a factor of 3. Uncounted industrial externalities cost roughly $30 trillion a year, about 30% of the global economy. No one seems to have totaled them. #econsky www.calx.info/ledger/f3eu0...

calx.infoMeasuring the Black Holes — Calx AnalyticsSagittarius A* is nobody's fault. There was no meeting at which it was approved (but that might make for a cool scene in a sci-fi movie). In contrast, each item and action that contributes to the exte...
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An accounting boundary works like an event horizon: costs don't vanish, they just leave the books. Harms fall hardest on the nearest and weakest, and they grow by feeding: once dumping costs is cheap, firms that don't get outcompeted. Unlike a real black hole, much of what's lost is gone for good.

The range, 20–50% of world product, is itself a scandal. Calx aims to narrow it: a MECE taxonomy in physical units (tCO2e, DALYs), use-once tagging to kill double counts, expert review, multiple valuation methods, and open work. What humans cause, humans can count and fix.

We know a black hole's mass to a few percent, but not our own harms within a factor of 3. Uncounted industrial externalities cost roughly $30 trillion a year, about 30% of the global economy. No one seems to have totaled them. #econsky www.calx.info/ledger/f3eu0...

calx.infoMeasuring the Black Holes — Calx AnalyticsSagittarius A* is nobody's fault. There was no meeting at which it was approved (but that might make for a cool scene in a sci-fi movie). In contrast, each item and action that contributes to the exte...

The pile: agrifood hidden costs $12.7T (FAO), fossil subsidies $7.4T (IMF), air pollution $8.1T (World Bank), lead $6.0T (Lancet), land degradation $6.3–10.6T, plastics >$1.5T, tobacco $1.4T. Squeeze out overlaps and it's hard to land below $20T, easy to exceed $35T.

Examples: The idea that corporations will, in their own self-interest, not ship unsafe products, as this author notes. Coal's human health harms alone exceed the industry's gross revenues - let alone the costs of contributions to the climate crisis. The entire tobacco industry. / more

The US auto industry's history has such examples as the Ford Pinto (whose gas tank would explode), or the Chevrolet Corvair ("unsafe at any speed"). The Chinese firms that in 2008 adulterated infant formula with powdered melamin. / wrap

To which I add: One of the strange things about GDP is that a company that ships an unsafe product, one which ends up putting users in hospitals, and then in mortuaries, is generating more economic activity than a firm that ships a more expensive product that keeps its users relatively safe. Weird.

Our analysis (at calx.info) agrees. The global coal industry has revenues of ~$800Bpa. Climate harms are $3.5Tpa. Non-climate harms are close to $2Tpa. Neurological damage (airborne Hg) is close to its global revenue. Shutting down coal is a win-win-win.

calx.infoCalx Analytics
John Smillie@johnsmillie42.bsky.social

Facts worth repeating: It would be cheaper to pay the ~40,000 or so people employed by the coal industry $1M a year to do nothing than to pay for the health damages (not including climate change) caused by burning coal in the U.S. publichealth.hsc.wvu.edu/news/story?h...

John Conor Ryan reposted

Replying to @janecoaston.bsky.social

I think it's more comforting for some people to think of OBL as some evil genius or tragic victim of imperialism rather than a bog standard delusional ideologically extremist billionaire failson who thought he could accellerationism his way to a theocratic utopia

John Conor Ryan reposted

Why do readers still line up to meet authors in a digital world? Because a signed book is more than a physical object. It becomes a memory—and a brief moment of real human connection. #books #authors #signing #scifi #worldcon Blog: www.jeremycliftbooks.com/post/the-mag...

jeremycliftbooks.comThe Magic of Meeting an Author in a Digital WorldFor years we have been told that physical books are on their way out. First electronic books would replace them. Then smartphones would destroy our attention spans. Then streaming entertainment would ...

John Conor Ryan reposted

"Bolsonaro has begun a twenty-seven-year prison sentence for his role in January 8, while the instigator of January 6 sits in the Oval Office...Should we in the United States try a Brazilian strategy?" spoiler: I answer yes. me, for @bostonreview.bsky.social www.bostonreview.net/articles/tru...

bostonreview.netTruth Without ReconciliationWhy did Brazil’s democratic institutions hold firm while those in the United States so quickly wilted?