Jonathan Thomas

Jonathan Thomas

@jtmigratory.bsky.social

Senior Fellow & the Migration Researcher at the Social Market Foundation. Many Interests but only post about migration. You have to draw the line somewhere.

355 followers20 following65 posts

Sandwiched in my latest paper (pgs 27/28) I question where this government's asylum reforms leave Ukrainians in the UK who never wish to return. Short answer: in a potentially difficult spot. Actual answer: will likely be more complicated. Probably just as well. www.smf.co.uk/publications...

smf.co.ukInside out: Why and how falling immigration numbers could result in increasing political and public tensions and divisions over immigration in the UK | Social Market FoundationHow could falling net migration increase political and public tensions over immigration? Migration expert Jonathan Thomas explores.

My new paper out today: www.smf.co.uk/wp-content/u... 'Inside Out: Why and how falling immigration numbers could result in increasing political and public tensions and divisions over immigration in the UK'

smf.co.ukUK business needs new post-crisis “contract with Britain” | Social Market FoundationThe report by Social Enterprise UK (SEUK), which represents 100,000 businesses with social or environmental missions, has been published in partnership with the Social Market Foundation (SMF), a cross...
Social Market Foundation@smfthinktank.bsky.social

The Home Office expects 1.6m settlement grants in the UK in 2026-2030, peaking at around 450,000 in 2028. In a briefing out today, @jtmigratory.bsky.social explains how who gets to stay, rather than who arrives, will dominate the immigration debate going forward. www.smf.co.uk/publications...

What a privilege and pleasure to be involved in this endeavour as one of the two expert speakers who took part in the Leicester workshop with the public, over a May weekend. Particularly loving the colourful picture on page 9 of the report that captures that.

Demos@demos-uk.bsky.social

📣 New Report | Your Voice on #Immigration What happens if you give people the time, information and space to discuss one of the most contested issues in British politics? 🗣️ ‘Your Voice on Immigration’ did just that. demos.co.uk/research/you...

'Brexit and the UK Constitution' book is out TODAY - what 'EU referendum 10 years on' stuff isn't out today? - from @consoc.bsky.social Inc my chapter on Brexit and Immigration: beach read version - perfectly timed for the melting weather - of my earlier essay.   consoc.org.uk/publications...

consoc.org.ukBrexit and the UK Constitution - The Constitution SocietyBrexit and the UK Constitution is an edited collection surveying the impact of Brexit 10 years after the UK voted to leave the European Union

The 7 inch version of my recent long player on what UK could learn from how Switzerland rebuilt public trust in its asylum system.

PoliticsHome@politicshome.bsky.social

There is no magic bullet for running an asylum system, but the Swiss example demonstrates that a much better way of doing things is possible, writes the @smfthinktank.bsky.social's @jtmigratory.bsky.social

I forgot to add, the report even has a picture in it. Just the one. Aiming to depict the different perspectives from which people view the asylum system, in one simple drawing. Obviously flawed. Hopefully effective.

Jonathan Thomas@jtmigratory.bsky.social

Everyone else has been obsessing about Denmark. But what lessons can the UK learn from how Switzerland reformed their asylum system? Not just from what they did, but also how they did it. My report - for @smfthinktank.bsky.social - is out today: www.smf.co.uk/wp-content/u...

My published letter to The Economist in response to its recent article on asylum seeker right to work in UK. www.economist.com/letters/2025... The asylum seeker right to work 'debate' is beset with simplistic thinking on both sides. My report for @SMFthinktank : www.smf.co.uk/wp-content/u...

economist.comShould work ­restrictions on asylum-seekers in Britain be reformed? | Oct 4th 2025 EditionAlso this week, America’s relations with Israel, the US constitution, cosy crime, the Democrats

When I wrote about the looming fight in the UK over Indefinite Leave to Remain - back in May for @smfthinktank.bsky.social - it was a niche topic. Now it dominates party conference speeches and radio phone-ins. Glad to have contributed to this v thoughtful and balanced piece.

Bloomberg Opinion@opinion.bloomberg.com

UK immigration policy is dancing to a Dutch tune after a University of Amsterdam paper made the question an economic issue

My take on yet another change of Home Secretary. And in defence of the last one.

Social Market Foundation@smfthinktank.bsky.social

Britain has a new Home Secretary - and Shabana Mahmood has been tasked with talking and acting tough on immigration. In his latest blog, @jtmigratory.bsky.social asks what Mahmood can do compared to her predecessor - and whether this is about real experience, or just a changing of narrative.

2/ 1. Relative attraction of UK vs US craziness & uncertainty + Canadian and Australian numerical restrictions - UK graduate visa remains in place & no cap on numbers + 2. Lower tariff unis = increasingly struggling for domestic students; finances of many remain v dependent on intl students

3/ 3. Social care visa developments: small window now – in both space and time (until July 2028) – to enter UK social care jobs through graduate route But other factors may push against. Like the huge recent depreciation of the Nigerian currency. Can intl students afford the UK? We shall see.

UK Govt = addicted to keeping scary immigration stories in the news. Yesterday Serbian gang bosses Today asylum-seeking Deliveroo drivers Tomorrow? Even though doesn't improve its popularity + people would otherwise be blissfully unaware What's wrong with bliss? www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

bbc.co.ukHome Office to share asylum hotel locations with Deliveroo, Just Eat and Uber EatsThe agreement is aimed at helping companies identify migrants who are working illegally in the UK.

2 - and it keeps getting pushback from BBC Verify who argue - half fairly - the Govt is over-stating its achievement, taking credit for returning people who have left the UK without any intervention by the Govt. This makes the Govt look disingenuous. Maybe the Govt should rethink this approach?

1/ Big UK-France deal today on Channel crossings. 5 key takeaways. 1. Deal w/France on returns of Channel crossers has long been on this Govt’s wishlist; it sees unilateral approach = insufficient to deliver border security 2. Govt’s failure to ‘smash the gangs’ through law enforcement measures ...

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3/ that = the swift return of all irregular Channel arrivals (save for exceptional cases) in return for taking in asylum claimants from France and/or elsewhere in the EU with a clear connection to the UK. 4. Today’s deal is not that deal, but it’s a start.

4/ 5. The risk though = - the pilot doesn’t expand any further - = not large enough to ‘break the model’ of the 'people smugglers' - has insufficient deterrent effect for the Govt to be able to claim political success on the Channel flows. And then what ...?

1/ Big UK-France deal today on Channel crossings. 5 key takeaways. 1. Deal w/France on returns of Channel crossers has long been on this Govt’s wishlist; it sees unilateral approach = insufficient to deliver border security 2. Govt’s failure to ‘smash the gangs’ through law enforcement measures ...

My piece for @smfthinktank.bsky.social on the outbreak of ECHR fever across the UK political scene. And why the Conservatives - remember them? - may have a rare opportunity to make the others sweat.

Social Market Foundation@smfthinktank.bsky.social

Thinking on the UK's membership of the ECHR seems to have reached a tipping point. Senior Fellow @jtmigratory.bsky.social explores the various positions - and questions who is best placed to take on this complex issue.🤔 Read the full blog here: buff.ly/MEXiDzG

That 'asylum hotels' should feature at all, let alone so prominently, across the headlines written about the Spending Review, tells you something. I thought we'd have a day off immigration 'policy' in the UK media yesterday, as people focused on the Spending Review. But obv not. I never learn.

Social Market Foundation@smfthinktank.bsky.social

@jtmigratory.bsky.social notes that the #SpendingReview's commitment to stop housing asylum seekers in hotels is ultimately hostage to fortune. Read the SMF's full response below 👇 : buff.ly/LmtHzD6

Jonathan Thomas reposted

Jonathan Thomas reposted

My thoughts for @smfthinktank.bsky.social on a key issue raised in recent UK Govt White paper on Immigration: - why is the Govt seeking to extend the qualifying period for permanent settlement in the UK? - why is Angela Rayner so interested? - and how to respond to this?

Social Market Foundation@smfthinktank.bsky.social

A quiet but crucial debate on earned settlement and Indefinite Leave to Remain is moving up the government’s immigration agenda. New @jtmigratory.bsky.social blog on what’s changing and why it matters: smf.co.uk/commentary_p...

With money too tight to mention, scepticism is understandable that Immigration Skills Charge proceeds will at last now actually fund skills training. But this further detail from Govt is not unwelcome + as we have said repeatedly, the 'presentation' that this is happening is itself important.

Direction of travel on YMS seems right. Initial proposal by EU on YMS = bad deal - EU admitted so themselves. UK negotiating good YMS deal can be doubly good; will: (1) be a good deal (2) show UK is rule maker with the EU, not rule taker from it. Let's see ... www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...

smf.co.ukBrexit and EU immigration: The art of the deal?A new Youth Mobility Scheme with EU is popular with public and would meet our labour needs, Senior Fellow Jonathan Thomas explores
Sunder Katwala (sundersays)@sundersays.bsky.social

The UK government confirms a deal has been reached. It says will negotiate a youth mobility deal similar to existing schemes & seek to cooperate more deeply on Channel crossings and asylum www.gov.uk/government/n...

V supportive of this. This aligns with what we proposed in our @smfthinktank.bsky.social December 2022 'Routes to Resolution' report - excerpted. Times/Vibes diplomatically might be more favourable to this possibility now, although still huge challenges obvs.

Sunder Katwala (sundersays)@sundersays.bsky.social

Could UK + France + neighbours cooperate on an orderly, workable + humane plan to stop boats crossing Channel? Beth Gardiner-Smith & Emily Graham for Future Governance Forum set out how UK/France cooperation on processing claims + returns could work www.futuregovernanceforum.co.uk/resource/asy...

My paper for @smfthinktank.bsky.social just out on: - the politics and principle of the Immigration White Paper, - what just happened and why, - and how should business respond.

Social Market Foundation@smfthinktank.bsky.social

Given the Govt’s stance on overseas workers, the White Paper was a chance to put policy behind the rhetoric — to reduce immigration and rebalance whose interests the economy best serves. Did it deliver? And how should business respond? 🧵 on @jtmigratory.bsky.social SMF analysis.

My full report for @smfthinktank.bsky.social on the Immigration White Paper coming shortly. For now: glad to see that this Govt has at least committed to use the Immigration Skills Charge for its proper purpose. This is much more impt than most people think. So I am liking the foot of page 27.

Social Market Foundation@smfthinktank.bsky.social

The SMF has long argued the Immigration Skills Charge hasn’t funded local training as intended. It's good the Govt now plans to use it for skills funding in key sectors as a result of the Immigration White Paper. Read @jtmigratory.bsky.social 2023 blog:

Agree 100%. Lawyers have a duty to pull all the levers they can for their client. They can't be concerned with what the political headlines are going to look like. But the political headlines around this are terrible for more reasoned consideration around safe routes.

Luke Tryl@luketryl.bsky.social

There are stark humanitarian reasons why ministers might consider introducing a scheme for Gazan refugees. But judicial expansion of the Ukraine scheme (which has high public support) to other areas will erode public confidence in future targeted safe routes schemes inews.co.uk/news/gazan-f...

On its 5th anniversary: - what impact did Brexit have on immigration to the UK, and - why might the UK need to channel a little more 'art of the deal' in its efforts to reach agreement with the EU on youth mobility. www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...

smf.co.ukBrexit and EU immigration: The art of the deal?What impact did Brexit have? Prior to Brexit the UK operated a two-tier immigration system for work. This provided preferential treatment to EU citizens who could come to the UK...