Sandwiched in my latest paper (pgs 27/28) I question where this government's asylum reforms leave Ukrainians in the UK who never wish to return. Short answer: in a potentially difficult spot. Actual answer: will likely be more complicated. Probably just as well. www.smf.co.uk/publications...
Jonathan Thomas
Jonathan Thomas
@jtmigratory.bsky.social
Senior Fellow & the Migration Researcher at the Social Market Foundation. Many Interests but only post about migration. You have to draw the line somewhere.
355 followers20 following65 posts
My new paper out today: www.smf.co.uk/wp-content/u... 'Inside Out: Why and how falling immigration numbers could result in increasing political and public tensions and divisions over immigration in the UK'
The Home Office expects 1.6m settlement grants in the UK in 2026-2030, peaking at around 450,000 in 2028. In a briefing out today, @jtmigratory.bsky.social explains how who gets to stay, rather than who arrives, will dominate the immigration debate going forward. www.smf.co.uk/publications...
My defence of capitalism and 'big business'. The hugo spritzes of Wetherspoons funding the NHS while combatting loneliness. gracetruth.blog/2026/09/12/t...
Jonathan Thomas reposted
The Home Affairs Committee, @demos-uk.bsky.social and @kingscollegelondon.bsky.social have published their findings following engagement events around the country, like this one in Leicester, exploring public perspectives on workforce migration. Read more: committees.parliament.uk/committee/83...
What a privilege and pleasure to be involved in this endeavour as one of the two expert speakers who took part in the Leicester workshop with the public, over a May weekend. Particularly loving the colourful picture on page 9 of the report that captures that.
📣 New Report | Your Voice on #Immigration What happens if you give people the time, information and space to discuss one of the most contested issues in British politics? 🗣️ ‘Your Voice on Immigration’ did just that. demos.co.uk/research/you...
'Brexit and the UK Constitution' book is out TODAY - what 'EU referendum 10 years on' stuff isn't out today? - from @consoc.bsky.social Inc my chapter on Brexit and Immigration: beach read version - perfectly timed for the melting weather - of my earlier essay. consoc.org.uk/publications...
Should the UK cap international student numbers? I debate with Jamie Arrowsmith @universities-uk.bsky.social On UCL The Bridge podcast www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uuv0...
The 7 inch version of my recent long player on what UK could learn from how Switzerland rebuilt public trust in its asylum system.
There is no magic bullet for running an asylum system, but the Swiss example demonstrates that a much better way of doing things is possible, writes the @smfthinktank.bsky.social's @jtmigratory.bsky.social
I forgot to add, the report even has a picture in it. Just the one. Aiming to depict the different perspectives from which people view the asylum system, in one simple drawing. Obviously flawed. Hopefully effective.
Everyone else has been obsessing about Denmark. But what lessons can the UK learn from how Switzerland reformed their asylum system? Not just from what they did, but also how they did it. My report - for @smfthinktank.bsky.social - is out today: www.smf.co.uk/wp-content/u...
Everyone else has been obsessing about Denmark. But what lessons can the UK learn from how Switzerland reformed their asylum system? Not just from what they did, but also how they did it. My report - for @smfthinktank.bsky.social - is out today: www.smf.co.uk/wp-content/u...
Brexit and Immigration: the Arc of the Pendulum My report out today for @consoc.bsky.social trying to make sense of the last 25 years of the UK's immigration politics and policy. And where next? consoc.org.uk/wp-content/u...
Jonathan Thomas reposted
As the Home Secretary set out changes to asylum and returns policy, SMF Senior Fellow @JTMigratory.bsky.social argued the Govt's Danish-style immigration plans must meet the high expectations they have set. Read Jonathan's full reaction👇 buff.ly/cWR54us
Excellent two minute explainer from the US President in this video interview of the benefits of attracting international students. www.foxnews.com/politics/tru...
My published letter to The Economist in response to its recent article on asylum seeker right to work in UK. www.economist.com/letters/2025... The asylum seeker right to work 'debate' is beset with simplistic thinking on both sides. My report for @SMFthinktank : www.smf.co.uk/wp-content/u...
When I wrote about the looming fight in the UK over Indefinite Leave to Remain - back in May for @smfthinktank.bsky.social - it was a niche topic. Now it dominates party conference speeches and radio phone-ins. Glad to have contributed to this v thoughtful and balanced piece.
UK immigration policy is dancing to a Dutch tune after a University of Amsterdam paper made the question an economic issue
My take on yet another change of Home Secretary. And in defence of the last one.
Britain has a new Home Secretary - and Shabana Mahmood has been tasked with talking and acting tough on immigration. In his latest blog, @jtmigratory.bsky.social asks what Mahmood can do compared to her predecessor - and whether this is about real experience, or just a changing of narrative.
1/ Start of the HE academic year. 'Hello international students. Don't forget to leave' may seem a strange welcome message. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article... But might international student numbers into UK remain higher than many expect? Why?
The Incredibles Nigel Farage's plan to tackle illegal immigration has the government on the ropes, how can it respond? For @smfthinktank.bsky.social www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...
Level of formal education = big dividing line on many issues in Western democracies - inc immigration = graduates typically pro more open policies. If many graduates now loading up with debt for worse outcomes than overall workforce, might the dividing line blur? kyla.substack.com/p/zero-sum-t...
Today's big UK immigration news. Apparently one of the world's toughest negotiators - the EU Commission - confirms that it is going to be really tough to negotiate with. inews.co.uk/news/politic... As I said here - that's the point. www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...
UK Govt = addicted to keeping scary immigration stories in the news. Yesterday Serbian gang bosses Today asylum-seeking Deliveroo drivers Tomorrow? Even though doesn't improve its popularity + people would otherwise be blissfully unaware What's wrong with bliss? www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
1/ UK Govt = keen to get credit for doing better job than previous govt on returning people not allowed to be in the UK. Understandable. But unfortunately: 1 - this only seems to make people more worried about immigration, and not more happy with the Govt. persuasionuk.org/research/ref...
Latest UK Home Office annual accounts show Immigration Skills Charge receipts unsurprisingly falling back a little after last year's record, but still = nearly £1.25 billion over the last two years. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/687774...
My piece for @smfthinktank.bsky.social on the outbreak of ECHR fever across the UK political scene. And why the Conservatives - remember them? - may have a rare opportunity to make the others sweat.
Thinking on the UK's membership of the ECHR seems to have reached a tipping point. Senior Fellow @jtmigratory.bsky.social explores the various positions - and questions who is best placed to take on this complex issue.🤔 Read the full blog here: buff.ly/MEXiDzG
Is the government's failure to bring back the Resident Labour Market Test actively undermining its aim to encourage more UK employers to invest in and hire domestic workers? www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p... For @smfthinktank.bsky.social
That 'asylum hotels' should feature at all, let alone so prominently, across the headlines written about the Spending Review, tells you something. I thought we'd have a day off immigration 'policy' in the UK media yesterday, as people focused on the Spending Review. But obv not. I never learn.
@jtmigratory.bsky.social notes that the #SpendingReview's commitment to stop housing asylum seekers in hotels is ultimately hostage to fortune. Read the SMF's full response below 👇 : buff.ly/LmtHzD6
1 - As I pointed out in www.smf.co.uk/wp-content/u... - if you are in competition for international students with 3 other main countries - and you tighten your policy BUT those other 3 countries tighten their policies MORE - you may become MORE NOT LESS attractive to international students.
Jonathan Thomas reposted
Thoughtful blog from @jtmigratory.bsky.social on the government's proposals on restricting migrants' right to settle/Indefinite Leave to Remain. As he says, debate on this has just begun (1/2) www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...
Jonathan Thomas reposted
This, from @jtmigratory.bsky.social is a real must-read blog on the proposed WP settlement changes. TLDR: it is all about the money, and retrospective effect is highly possible www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...
MAC review of IT and Engineering sectors' use of immigration is out. TLDR: 'Remind us again why you asked us to look at this?' assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6836ea...
My thoughts for @smfthinktank.bsky.social on a key issue raised in recent UK Govt White paper on Immigration: - why is the Govt seeking to extend the qualifying period for permanent settlement in the UK? - why is Angela Rayner so interested? - and how to respond to this?
A quiet but crucial debate on earned settlement and Indefinite Leave to Remain is moving up the government’s immigration agenda. New @jtmigratory.bsky.social blog on what’s changing and why it matters: smf.co.uk/commentary_p...
Direction of travel on YMS seems right. Initial proposal by EU on YMS = bad deal - EU admitted so themselves. UK negotiating good YMS deal can be doubly good; will: (1) be a good deal (2) show UK is rule maker with the EU, not rule taker from it. Let's see ... www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...
The UK government confirms a deal has been reached. It says will negotiate a youth mobility deal similar to existing schemes & seek to cooperate more deeply on Channel crossings and asylum www.gov.uk/government/n...
V supportive of this. This aligns with what we proposed in our @smfthinktank.bsky.social December 2022 'Routes to Resolution' report - excerpted. Times/Vibes diplomatically might be more favourable to this possibility now, although still huge challenges obvs.
Could UK + France + neighbours cooperate on an orderly, workable + humane plan to stop boats crossing Channel? Beth Gardiner-Smith & Emily Graham for Future Governance Forum set out how UK/France cooperation on processing claims + returns could work www.futuregovernanceforum.co.uk/resource/asy...
My paper for @smfthinktank.bsky.social just out on: - the politics and principle of the Immigration White Paper, - what just happened and why, - and how should business respond.
Given the Govt’s stance on overseas workers, the White Paper was a chance to put policy behind the rhetoric — to reduce immigration and rebalance whose interests the economy best serves. Did it deliver? And how should business respond? 🧵 on @jtmigratory.bsky.social SMF analysis.
My full report for @smfthinktank.bsky.social on the Immigration White Paper coming shortly. For now: glad to see that this Govt has at least committed to use the Immigration Skills Charge for its proper purpose. This is much more impt than most people think. So I am liking the foot of page 27.
The SMF has long argued the Immigration Skills Charge hasn’t funded local training as intended. It's good the Govt now plans to use it for skills funding in key sectors as a result of the Immigration White Paper. Read @jtmigratory.bsky.social 2023 blog:
What might the German election tell us about UK immigration policy? My short piece for @smfthinktank.bsky.social www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...
Lord. Is there no sector not complaining of skills shortages? www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
Agree 100%. Lawyers have a duty to pull all the levers they can for their client. They can't be concerned with what the political headlines are going to look like. But the political headlines around this are terrible for more reasoned consideration around safe routes.
There are stark humanitarian reasons why ministers might consider introducing a scheme for Gazan refugees. But judicial expansion of the Ukraine scheme (which has high public support) to other areas will erode public confidence in future targeted safe routes schemes inews.co.uk/news/gazan-f...
On its 5th anniversary: - what impact did Brexit have on immigration to the UK, and - why might the UK need to channel a little more 'art of the deal' in its efforts to reach agreement with the EU on youth mobility. www.smf.co.uk/commentary_p...