Jonathan Portes

Saw something about how there are loads of rightwingers in favour of free movement who don't seem to realise that'll mean EU citizens living and working here and I'm not sure they mind. The racism that's now apparently mainstream and acceptable abhors Muslims and anyone with the wrong skin colour.

“1,431 people, including at least 300 children and 130 women, have been killed since the US-brokered ceasefire deal began in October 2025 and Israel is aiming to "destroy, in whole or in part, the Palestinians in Gaza". news.sky.com/story/un-rep...

I think it doesn't reflect well on the BBC that one its leading presenters is allowed to write an 'analysis' for a highly partisan newspaper which includes lines like "Racial minorities, worshipped by white Democrats" www.dailymail.com/news/article...

Are you a Labour MP (or office staff for same)? Have you been contacted by GB News & asked about my estimates of how (2024) constituencies voted in the EU referendum? Please remember: that was 10 years ago. Some people die, some turn eighteen—& most importantly, some change their mind!

Home Office press office: "The speech doesn’t say the policy will deliver £10bn in savings. It says the status quo will cost £10bn" before quoting the bit of the speech that says the policy will deliver £10 bn in savings! "If we do not, we will see a £10 billion pound drain on our public finances…”

One of the least understood things about immigration policy is that the government can make changes on this scale without any vote at all. Chris Philp is offering the Home Secretary the votes of the Opposition to vote her original policy through unamended - but PM and Cabinet will surely change it

Can't read the article - this publication has churned out so much shit in the last couple of years I would not dream of subscribing to it - but this is a very poor bit of promotion for it. The worst I've seen since their incompetent and unhinged attack on Acemoglu.

A government which had confidence in its arguments about fiscal impacts could surely give factual answers to straight factual questions bsky.app/profile/sund...

The Home Office told me at the time that the claim of a £10 billion "lifetime cost" (£9.5 billion) did not mean the Home Sec meant the government's proposals would save that £9.5 billion, but would not say what fiscal difference the government's proposals would make. bsky.app/profile/sund...

A government u-turn on indefinite leave to remain would certainly not cost £10 billion - since the proposals would not have saved 90%+ of this figure. However, it is now a headache for the government that the Home Secretary made that claim in March. They should produce the real numbers

Most talk of constituencies being 'pro-Brexit' or 'Brexit-supporting' is incredibly lazy for basic reasons that large parts of Westminster just don't seem to be able to fathom.

Debt scare stories are a distraction. My take on what a serious, "responsible" Budget actually look like: [Tax reform, employment support, migration, etc.] zeteo.uk/p/this-is-wh...

The EU doesn't care about the Euro or Schengen. Straw man

once again a criminal says the loud bit out loud regarding the one actual use of cryptocurrency - crime once again regulators and governments will ignore it

Thinking about the practicalities - the four freedoms make sense as a package because the movement of goods and services are facilitated by movement of capital and labour. And countries have different endowments and comparative advantages, so there needs to be benefits for all.

Very excited about the Brexit debate becoming about why rejoin might get us 'better' immigrants......

This is just dreadful stuff from Kuenssberg: "What has the government done to cut the national debt?" ONS: "Public sector net debt was provisionally estimated at 94.0% of GDP, 0.7 percentage points lower than a year earlier"

Why EU free movement is an opportunity, not a threat – as Burnham makes the case, read @johnspringford.bsky.social for Arguably. “It is strange to reject one of the few policies that we know would raise growth and improve our fiscal position.” www.arguably.uk/p/eu-free-mo...

I don't disagree with anything in this by @jemima.bsky.social but I think it underplays the issue by treating these people as a bit of a joke. As she says, the UK is not hurtling towards a civil war. That doesn't mean there isn't a genuinely dangerous agenda here. ukandeu.ac.uk/civil-war-in...

Debt scare stories are a distraction. My take on what a serious, "responsible" Budget actually look like: [Tax reform, employment support, migration, etc.] zeteo.uk/p/this-is-wh...

It takes a leap of faith to think that the post WW2 growth rates are coming back any time soon, so these long term charts aren't all that helpful in understanding where we now are. (The article below is however excellent).

“Restricting migration by people who will work and pay taxes will weaken the tax base.” @jdportes.bsky.social argues a responsible Budget requires honest choices on tax, public services, investment and migration. Read more here and subscribe: zeteo.uk/p/this-is-wh...

It’s so telling that Robin Ince has used the word ‘openly’ here. Any time I write a piece in the Scottish press that’s supportive of trans folk it unleashes a tidal wave of hate and threats that lasts for days. It is a deliberate exercise in silencing support and further isolating trans people.

Free movement as part of a future UK-EU relationship has more support when linked to benefits to trade and opportunities for UK citizens My blog based on new @britishfuture.bsky.social research for @freemovement.bsky.social 👇👇👇

A significant shift, however much the circular migration point is overdone. Here's my piece on why this matters from two weeks ago www.arguably.uk/p/eu-free-mo...

Yet the Labour government took that trade-off without discussing it! This time, ministers were unaware of pace + price of reduction. (They did in 2024-25c want to go from 650k to < 250k: its much less clear they are heading to < 100k and to zero in 2026 on purpose!) bsky.app/profile/sund...

None of these was elected a Fellow of the Royal Society. Elon Musk was. Odd, that.

Mahmood’s immigration minister, Jo White: “I don’t want us to get into that spiral where people move out of the care sector because they’ve got leave to remain.” In other words, keep them on insecure visas as bonded labourers. I think she just doesn't like them.

My earlier piece on this topic: www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/724...

As @gabyhinsliff.bsky.social says, you’ll never satisfy the far right. They’ve gone from banging on about EU migrants to attacking people who aren’t white. Whatever happens to the migration stats, the bigots will just keep moving the target. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Exactly my thought when I first heard the policy. If you want people to integrate, don’t keep them hanging around for 15 years with the threat of deportation hanging over them. 5 years is fair and plenty long enough. www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026...

"The Home Office has identified a new problem with migrant care workers. The people presented as a burden on Britain because they earn too little have become so indispensable that they must be prevented from finding a better or higher-paid job." ukandeu.ac.uk/unaffordable...

“When the people concerned are being told that their contribution is insufficient to deserve settlement, yet apparently too important to allow them to leave their occupation, the contradiction becomes clear.”

"The Home Office has identified a new problem with migrant care workers. The people presented as a burden on Britain because they earn too little have become so indispensable that they must be prevented from finding a better or higher-paid job." ukandeu.ac.uk/unaffordable...

Click the link. Deliberate choice of photo? Your call.

Have now written about this at greater length ukandeu.ac.uk/unaffordable...

"The people presented as a burden on Britain because they earn too little have become so indispensable that they must be prevented from finding a better or higher-paid job." @jdportes.bsky.social critiques the Home Office's changing approach to migrant care workers. ukandeu.ac.uk/unaffordable...

Have now written about this at greater length ukandeu.ac.uk/unaffordable...

every now & then someone on the anti-trans side will get cold feet about how openly ugly it's all getting—they want to keep the image of a nice, sensible centrist but it's never enough for them to get off the train

Me on the Home Office's latest contorted and contradictory attempt to justify an intellectually and morally bankrupt set of proposals.. ukandeu.ac.uk/unaffordable...

The fall in immigration is mutilating Healey’s Budget iandunt.substack.com/p/the-fall-i...

“There is a straightforward alternative. Fund care properly, improve pay and conditions, and make it a sector in which people want to build a career.”

Me on the Home Office's latest contorted and contradictory attempt to justify an intellectually and morally bankrupt set of proposals.. ukandeu.ac.uk/unaffordable...

The immigration doom loop, summed up here by @gabyhinsliff.bsky.social www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...