Kevin Erdmann

I do think when historians look back the period the exact moment where it flipped and started going the other way won’t be anything any politician did but my Minneapolis neighbors weathering the worst of the regime in the streets, rallying together, fighting back, and winning

If NYC permitted more homes so that it could grow, it would only become more expensive. That's why in its high growth era, Ellis Island was teeming with only the world's rich and powerful. They were the only ones who could make it there. Because it was building such agglomeration value.

So many of the deeper revelations depend on Fielder's accurate portrayal of his last conversation with Holmes at the prison. How sure can we be that his dialog is accurate? (The whole movie leading up to that point revolves around our inability to know the answer to that.)

Mortgage access was tightened even more than the sharp rise in average FICOs on approved mortgages suggests. Looking away from the mortgage crackdown kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/looking-aw...

I feel like when Fielder was especially awkward, it was distracting. One possible reason those scenes were includes was a commitment to sincerely convey what he felt like and how he acted when he was there. Or was that detritus from the show they originally thought they were making? Something else?

Saw You Can See Everything. I will repeat what you have probably heard. Really great. Thought provoking. Deeper than you think it will be. If you think you’ve seen all the spoilers, you’ll probably still be surprised more than once. You’ll feel the whole being greater than the sum of the parts.

A bunch of unhinged left-NIMBYs are trying to frame these projects, which guarantee every current NYCHA tenant a *brand new, permanently affordable home*, as some evil plot to “bulldoze the black and brown tenants”, and are trying to take over DSA to oppose these projects They are blatant liars.

If share buybacks make the share price rise then they were definitely the most socially beneficial thing to do with the cash. If you have a pov that we should stop companies from driving up the share price by buying back shares, you should concentrate on things you understand, not finance.

Occasional reminder, because almost everyone positions their side rear view mirrors too far in. YOU SHOULD HAVE NO BLIND SPOTS. Anything next to your car, beyond the end of the mirror, should be easily visible out your side window. You should not see your own car in your mirrors.

Stephen Miller claims Somali-Americans in Minnesota are "buying Mercedes, buying BMWs, they buy a nice house, all their kids fly first class all over the world" (This is a lie!)

The generation that got to buy cheap houses thanks to a postwar construction boom, then blocked new housing construction to juice their asset values is now whining that they have to pay taxes on their unearned wealth. Just breathtaking selfishness.

Oof. He was hitting it out of the park, and then he shit himself.

Upside-down CAPM, the AI boom, and interest rates kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/upside-dow...

The illegal tariffs had a positive effect on real growth by temporarily creating a one-time windfall for corporations that received rebates, leading to an investment bonanza. Plausible?

Black lives? You betcha! Black education? Meh Women don't need housing and schooling. Am I right? Humans can legally drive to school, preferably not this one. Science is real. Learn it somewhere else. Love is love, especially from a distance. Kindly stay out of this town.

As an economic historian I think that @kevinerdmann.bsky.social's latest column should have had potatoes in the title instead of just the conclusion. kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/some-final...

It seems like Waymo and Amazon could work together to have delivery vehicles with robots that could make deliveries With no human workers involved. Is this coming soon anywhere?

It is true that filtering can't fully restore equitable American urban housing supply. Who actually supports the housing that would fix it? Inferior housing is the most important housing. kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/some-final...

til that Pokemon Go was a way to create a dense network of street-level photographs, and, as it was told to me, they would place the Pokemon where they needed more pictures. Brilliant, if true.

Trump: I could say the stupidest things and you'd clap

If you follow building code research, you may have heard of the Alabama Study, which finds no evidence that newer editions of the IRC have increases house prices as they've been adopted: laweconcenter.org/resources/do...

It's finally available. (click CC for the lyrics) youtu.be/wcFdiEcQdTc

Has anyone considered that interest rates have risen so much because of the investment boom in gold wall ornaments?

Going forward, price levels will remain elevated, but the effect of tariffs on inflation rates will be minimal. Though, of course, on any given Wednesday morning, Trump might come up with a new illegal tariff to impose. libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/10/how-...

Judge Gary Brown, a Trump appointee in New York, rebukes ICE for arresting two people erroneously — including a U.S. citizen — and later claiming "mistaken identity." "ICE agents falsified official records," he says. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...

Holy shit.

What if monkeys built banana factories? That would be bad ass. Kind of sucks for them that they don't. It's basically the difference between them and us, to their detriment. Nathalie Robin Justice should go share bananas with monkeys if she thinks they've got it figured out.

a very weird thing about Trump that I have NEVER seen the media comment on is that he thinks "mutilization" is a word and uses it multiple times during every public appearance

Iranian-American families whose relatives were killed, injured or displaced by U.S. strikes are taking Trump to court over a fundamental question: Can a president wage a war Congress never authorized? The unprecedented lawsuit could put presidential war powers on trial.

Some of this is for subscribers, but here I go into some updates on the business cycle and housing. kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/mortgage-r...

The rising interest rates strike me as quite bullish. If they had gone this far in the OTHER direction over the past week, I would have been increasing my bond position. This is not how a yield curve acts in a weak economy.

Hold up any explanation about housing supply in the last 30 years against this chart (single-family homes in the Northeast - Pennsylvania and states to the east) and ask yourself how in the world my explanation became the "contrarian" one instead of those. fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PERMI...

Many stores today, for the same price, will: 1) pick your order, check it out, and bring it to your car 2) check you out after you pick it 3) let you pick it and check yourself out and real, living & breathing people argue to ban (3) because it steals your labor and takes cashier jobs.