Kevin Dupuy

Kevin Dupuy

@kevinyeaux.com

I will not be tolerated. My life is international politics, travel, & @KelsaPellettiere.com. Some call me a “recovering libertarian,” but I’m more like a functioning libertarian. I voted against myself one time. KevinYeaux.com

216 followers153 following2.3K posts

Kevin Dupuy reposted

Lula has been reelected president, Brazilian media has now called. An extraordinary comeback for the left-wing politician who trailed by 2 points in round 1 but managed to hold off Flávio Bolsonaro, the former president's son.

Was catching up on the USGP a few minutes ago and saw the Texas government didn’t send Abbott this time but someone even more popular for the podium.

Kevin Dupuy reposted

Replying to @taniel.bsky.social

Lula has taken the overall, countrywide lead back. With 62% of precincts counted, he is ahead 50.6% to 49.4%, which is an edge of roughly 900,000 votes. He is also getting the shift he needs (compared to the first round) in virtually every state that has reported most of the vote.

Kevin Dupuy reposted

Replying to @taniel.bsky.social

Symbol of the night so far: State of Minas Gerais is typically presented as THE swing state. It voted for Lula by 0.4% in the 2022 runoff; then, swung to Bolsonaro, who won it 48% to 43% in round 1. A third of the precincts have been counted so far, & results have been 50.0-50.0 for a while.

Great follow for Brazil results tonight

Taniel@taniel.bsky.social

I'm going to start this thread on the presidential count in Brazil—so people who are interesting can follow along. With 3% of vote counted, Lula up 51.3 to 48.7 (that's a lead of 103K). Pattern in 2022 & in R1 was Lula down big at 1st, then closing gap, but that's shaken up by today's 2-hour delay.

Chaos in Brazil where Bolsonaro-aligned officials are causing disruption to try and reduce Lula supporters’ abilities to vote. Polling has been extended an extra two hours.

Laura Bassett@lebassett.bsky.social

The governor of Bahia calls out the election sabotage, which has been reported in at least 10 states now, and demands extended voting hours. This is a shit show

This is one of the more… right-wing parish parties in the Louisiana GOP. And that senate race isn’t particularly competitive. Can’t recall the state or local party in Louisiana, which I used to work in, EVER sound this concerned. Don’t be complacent, but Republicans are not feeling good.

Conservatives win majority government in snap election in British Columbia, unseating the NDP after nine years. The Conservatives were beset with infighting and even an interim leader, which the NDP tried to take advantage of by calling an early election. www.ctvnews.ca/vancouver/ar...

ctvnews.caB.C. Conservatives win majority government, CTV News declaresDavid Eby’s snap election gamble has handed the B.C. Conservative Party a majority government, CTV News has declared.

Update: won’t spoil anything, but you should watch this. Ideally in a theater with decent numbers of people in it. The social commentary aspect around you will be worth it.

Kevin Dupuy@kevinyeaux.com

Finally going to see “You Can See Everything.” Living in a college town in the middle of nowhere means movies come late here sometimes. But apparently it’s a hot ticket in Oxford tonight.

Finally going to see “You Can See Everything.” Living in a college town in the middle of nowhere means movies come late here sometimes. But apparently it’s a hot ticket in Oxford tonight.

The Duo is… awkward. Apple’s modifications to iOS is definitely better suited to the form factor than Android, but folded it has a weird feel in the hand and definitely needs two hands to use comfortably. Unfolded it’s an interesting iPad mini, the crease is there but you have to look for it.

Kevin Dupuy reposted

There is a very famous organized bike ride across Iowa...

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

Joe Mitchell: "Thank God you're building the ballroom. Thank God you're getting rid of those awful bike lanes. We don't ride bicycles in Iowa."

I have a Colom for Senate sticker on my car, and I don’t put stickers on my car. So that’s how serious this is. It’s nice to be in a battleground for once. I think this will be a reach, but it’s possible IF the GOP has a REALLY bad night.

National Review@nationalreview.bsky.social

The chances of flipping the Mississippi Senate seat remain low, but not impossible, according to polls. | Tanner Nau https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/can-democrats-pull-off-a-mississippi-miracle/

It’s after midnight my time, and I have a paying job so I’m going to drop off now and catch up in the morning. Remaining questions: What percentage of the vote do the separatists end up with? How does the other nine referendum questions the government wanted to win fare?

And how will all this affect Danielle Smith’s hold on the UCP? If she loses other referendums, there will be a lot of criticism at pushing the separation question and driving turnout that was likely to be opposed to their policies.

In typical American fashion, none of the three major news networks + BBC is airing any coverage of the Albertan referendum.

Edmonton mayor at Forever Canadian party: “This has been a long time coming… we are glad to see the rest of Alberta ready to stay part of Canada.”

CANADA WINS: no huge surprise here, but CBC News is projecting that Albertans have voted to remain in Canada in tonight’s quasi-separation referendum

Pro-Canada supporters will be hoping to keep the separatists under 25-30%. Other than the separatists winning, which seems very mathematically difficult right now, nightmare scenario for Canada would be separatist finishing in the 40s.

Worth noting that the discussion on Canadian TV, even among the Remain supporters, is that Canada needs structural change to allow provinces other than Ontario and Quebec to have influence in elections, since they dominate given their population and seat count.

The irony is that what they are describing is exactly the function of the Electoral College and the Senate in the U.S. Which many Canadians (and much of America) make fun of us for

So… polls are actually not closed. Well, specifically one polling place is still open, which is why there are no results flowing from Elections Alberta yet.

The last major separation referendum I covered was the EU/Brexit referendum over a decade ago. Oh how the world has changed since then, huh?

Helpfully, Alberta doesn’t have a “yes” or “no” result, instead it’s “Option 1” for remaining in Canada, and “Option 2” for a separation referendum.

CBC is classifying the results as “Remain” or “Referendum” which makes more sense so we’ll go with that tonight.

Polls are now fully closed in Alberta, where voters had ten referendum questions, including one on whether to remain a part of Canada or to move forward with a future referendum on becoming an independent nation.

I think if ANYTHING takes Trump down politically to impeachment, I would not be surprised if it’s the Ukraine/Russia stuff. He is alienating Republican Congress members with this. And while I think Vance is worse on this topic, he will make whatever deal he needs to be president.

Don’t take this to mean that I think Trump will be impeached and removed. Still think that’s very, very remote. But if anything does take him down it will probably be this if he doesn’t reverse course.

No one seriously expects Albertan separatists to win tonight, the biggest question is what the margin is and what it means for Danielle Smith and the UCP.

I’ve said for a while, if you want single payer healthcare, your best chance at it is this presidency.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

Trump: "We will pass a truly great healthcare plan that will stop all payments to big insurance companies"