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I'm going to start this thread on the presidential count in Brazil—so people who are interesting can follow along. With 3% of vote counted, Lula up 51.3 to 48.7 (that's a lead of 103K). Pattern in 2022 & in R1 was Lula down big at 1st, then closing gap, but that's shaken up by today's 2-hour delay.

The state that is furthest in its count, by far, is the Distrito Federal (Brasilia): 31% of precincts have been counted. Result so far? Bolsonaro is up 9.2%. Bolsonaro won the first round here 51% to 38%. His dad won the 2022 runoff here 59% to 41%.

Another striking result *so far*: The state of Tocantins. It went for Bolsonaro in the first round, 50% to 43%. (A reminder Boslonaro won the first round by 2.) With 40% precincts now counted here, Lula is up 51% to 49%.

Lead change in Tocatins: With 65% counted, Bolsonaro up by 0.4%. (Was Bol +7% in R1.) Distrito Federal has now counted 74%, with Bolsonaro up 9%. (Was Bol +13% in R1.) Only other state that has counted majority of precincts: Paraíba. Lula leads 68% to 32%, so by +36%. (Was Lula +28% in R1.)

Another state has joined the group that's counted at least 50% of precincts: Paraná, in the South. Bolsonaro is up by 25%. (He led by 28.9% here in R1. His dad won by 25% four years ago.) Also noteworthy: Bolsonaro's edge in Distrito Federal now at +8.8% with 87% reporting.

For people keeping an eye on countrywide results: Bolsonaro is now up with 25% reporting, 50.5% to 49.5%. (That's a lead of 260K votes.) Right-friendly states have reported more first—as they had three weeks ago, & in 2022. Left-friendly North slower. W we're keeping an eye on state-level shifts.

More states have counted the majority of their precincts: —Espírito Santo, 70% reporting: Bolsonaro leads by 13.4%. (He won by 17% in R1. His father won by 16%.) —Mato Grosso do Sul, 82% reporting: Bolsonaro up 21%. (He won R1 by 23.9%. His dad by 19%.)

Symbol of the night so far: State of Minas Gerais is typically presented as THE swing state. It voted for Lula by 0.4% in the 2022 runoff; then, swung to Bolsonaro, who won it 48% to 43% in round 1. A third of the precincts have been counted so far, & results have been 50.0-50.0 for a while.

6 states have counted at least 90% of precincts: —Distrito Federal: Bolsonaro +8.6% (R1: B+13) —Tocatins: Bolsonaro +3% (R1: B+7) —Paraíba: Lula +36% (R1: L+28) —Mato Grosso do Sul: Bolsonaro +19.6% (R1: B+24) —Espírito Santo: Bolsonaro +12.2% (R1: B+17) —Paraná: Bolsonaro +25.2% (R1: B+29)

Bolsonaro was ahead by 2 points in Round 1. So the extremely basic rule of thumb is that Lula wants to see the results shift by at least 2 points toward him from the first round to the runoff. That's true in all 6 of the states that are nearly done. But caution there's MANY others left.

I dont know who posted this originally but currently predicting 52-48 final vote percentages seuimposto.com#presidente

🙏🏽That is what too close for comfort. Brazil must have lost moral compassion, or sense?

Considering how many people completely wrote him off after the first round and Bolsonaro entered today favored maybe save your handwringing at the state of the world for Argentina?

Latin America has always struggled with caudillos or strongmen since the days of colonialism. It's due to a various combination of historical and cultural factors. Look at Mexico and how our two revolutions went.

It’s mostly progressive metropolitan areas left to count too isn’t it?

States I haven't mentioned yet that are > 90% reporting: —Amazonas: Lula +6.6% (R1: L+3.2) —Alagoas: Lula +22.5 (R1: L+14.2) —Acre: Bolsonaro +33% (R1: B+36) —Santa Catarina: Bolsonaro +38.4% (R1: B+42) —Rio Grande do Norte: Lula +32.2% (R1: L+25) —Pará: Lula +9.2% (R1: L+5.4)

Lula has flipped the state of Amapa, which he lost to Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 runoff by 3 percentage points. He will win it today; he is ahead by 6 percentage points with 99% of precincts reporting. He'd finished ahead by a hair in the first round, 45.7% to 45.7%.

With 83% of the vote counted nationwide, Lula has stretched his lead to 2.8 million votes. That's a lead of 51.4% to 48.6%. That puts him on track for a victory that could be larger than his 1.8% win four years ago, which would be an immense comeback. He's even up in Minas Gervais now, by 0.6%.