Mikhail Khodorkovsky

Putin removed one of Prime Minister Mishustin's closest people, Dmitry Grigorenko, from the government. If something happens to Putin, under the constitution it is Mishustin who becomes acting president. So Putin is trying, as always, to leave him without a team.

China Sets Its Price for Russian Gas — and It’s Punishingly Low khodorkovsky.substack.com/p/is-the-war...

"It's Europe that is our main enemy. The Germans, the French, the Poles." Following the diesel deal with the Trump administration, Russian state propaganda is recalibrating its message.

A Russian court just fined me for "demoralizing the Russian military" on a "foreign website." By "foreign website," they mean my Substack. Subscribe for free: khodorkovsky.substack.com

For Putin, war is his method of political survival. There is no secret formula to stop him other than confronting him on the battlefield.

As long as Putin is alive and in power, real peace is impossible.

New on Substack. Putin Is Betting on Winter and on Europe's Far Right. Both Bets Will Fail substack.com/home/post/p-...

There's no cheap way to stop Putin. At the Warsaw Security Forum, I explained why signing a lasting treaty with him would be an act of self-deception. Read and follow on Substack for free: blog.khodorkovsky.com/p/there-is-n...

I do not believe any of the stories about Putin choosing a successor. Dmitry Medvedev, whom he once made president, showed Putin that even his most loyal man could have his own opinion on foreign policy. After all the havoc Putin has wreaked since, he will hardly risk that again.

Gerhard Schröder was never Putin's spy. He is Putin's useful idiot. Putin did him a great favor involving his family, and Schröder came to feel he owed Putin. Owing a man like Putin is a big problem.

If Putin is trying to restore the Soviet Union, he is doing it wrong. Former Soviet countries are pulling away. Who wants to deal with a country whose leader may, at any moment and for no clear reason, start a war?

Putin has publicly denied plans to attack Europe five times this year: on May 9, June 4, and September 11, 18, and 25. If you know Putin, it's almost more concerning than if he had said he was going to attack.

Western governments should judge Putin by what he does, not what he says. He has raised the ceiling of Russia's armed forces to about 2.44 million and will add roughly 300,000 men through quiet, creeping mobilization.

Today marks 20 years since Novaya Gazeta journalist Anna Politkovskaya was murdered in Moscow. She recognized Putin's true nature earlier than most—and the regime could never erase the truth she died to tell.

Russia is producing more missiles than it is using. I expect Putin to use the accumulated missiles when the cold arrives, so that every strike on Ukraine’s infrastructure, every power cut and every loss of heating has the worst possible consequences for ordinary people.

Russia built "Dead Hand" to retaliate even after its leaders were killed. But who decides to launch? New evidence suggests it could now be a machine: blog.khodorkovsky.com/p/could-a-ma...

Putin says he must conquer Donbas to save people from the “Kyiv regime.” Then why is he willing to stop at the front line in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia? Why can those people be left “unsaved”? His own position exposes the absence of logic in that justification.

Putin: The war will continue until its root causes are eliminated. The root cause of the war:

Ceasefires without strong military deterrence only grant Putin time to regroup, rearm, and strike again. Having broken every signed agreement from domestic laws to international treaties, he only respects unmistakable, physical force.

Putin wanted to stop NATO expansion, but his war in Ukraine forced Europe to rearm and spend record sums on defense. Instead of pushing the alliance away, he brought it closer, doubled the border with NATO, and left Russia vastly weaker and more isolated than before

In 2003, I showed Putin a corrupt transaction in which around $400 million had been stolen from the national budget. Years later, I learned that it went straight into his pocket. If you want to understand Putin's regime from the inside out, you should read How to Slay a Dragon: blog.khodorkovsky.com

If you live in a country where the outcome of an election is actually unknown ahead of time, never take that for granted.

"You Europeans will stop supporting Ukraine in six months. You Americans will not use force against me. I will talk to you politely. I don’t want a fight. But I will continue to do what I want. And who are you anyway?" blog.khodorkovsky.com/p/there-are-...

Putin is proud that he does not use the internet. I find that about as sensible as being proud of not using electricity. blog.khodorkovsky.com/p/putins-wor...

I do not expect Putin to stop the war while he believes political changes in Europe could weaken support for Ukraine. He thinks that reduced support would allow him to achieve his objectives and force Ukraine’s effective capitulation.

What questions do you have about Russian politics, the war, or the future after Putin? Leave your thoughts in the comments. Recording my weekly Q&A for YouTube soon — will address what I find most interesting.

The American negotiating team made a mistake in the spring by offering Putin a generous peace deal without a show of force. Putin has a purely bandit mentality. If you offer a bandit a compromise without first demonstrating strength, he just assumes you are weak.

Can this war continue until 2030? Yes. The war will not truly stop as long as Putin is in power. The hot phase might fade into a frozen state, but a real, permanent peace treaty with this regime is impossible because Putin’s promises mean nothing.

Putin has allowed the state to take over enterprises that "defended themselves poorly" from drones. In effect, owners have been told: if your plant is hit, you defend it yourselves. The state is dropping the main duty of any state — protecting its citizens from external attack.

Moldova is not a NATO member, but it stands on NATO's threshold. From the point of view of a possible Russian attack, it is the most dangerous country in Europe today.

Russia is the only country supplying Iran with the intelligence that lets it strike American bases and Iran's neighbors whenever Tehran decides to. China helps far less, as far as open information allows us to judge. That, I am all but certain, is what the CIA director came to Moscow about

The Kremlin only tolerates opposition parties when it can control the outcome. Hundreds of people showing up at the courthouse today made sure Yabloko was not one of those cases. Too risky. That is why Putin's rubber-stamp court just removed them from the ballot.

The belief that Putin has unlimited time — to take the Donbas, to carve off from Ukraine whatever he likes — is wrong. That time is visibly running out. And the belief inside Russia that everything can continue this way for a long time is a mistake.

Marx called religion the opium of the people. After 33 years of leading the Russian communists, Gennady Andreyevich has decided to try the product.

Russia's Economy Ministry has cut its 2026 growth forecast to 0.4%. In July, gasoline production covered only around 65% of seasonal demand. Putin is fighting this war on reserves — and they are running out. Learn more: blog.khodorkovsky.com/p/putin-thin...