Kyle Stack

House remains a very very likely Dem flip, with anything from 220 to 260 seats inside the 95% uncertainty interval for normal error in polling and fundamentals models

Florida early voting update: Early in-person turnout among Republicans has fallen off a cliff. At R+0.4, the total early vote in the state is about as blue as 2018, 5 points higher than this point in 2022, and 10 points higher than in 2024. www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-early...

The polls are very close in half a dozen key states. A small uniform miss could have a big impact on Senate control. Democrats are a normal polling error away from 54+ Senate seats — or just 50 www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-10-15...

Will the midterms be free and fair? Talked all about 2026 election administration with @baseballot.bsky.social.

"It's like that Orwell quote: to see what's in front of one's nose is a constant struggle. Saying 'it's the economy, stupid.' Every four years, it's like people have to relearn this lesson. But that is what people want to talk about. They want to talk about their material well-being."

"Here's the thing about what Trump has done to the GOP: it is a hollowed-out nothing. It does not stand for anything. It does not have ideas. It doesn't have a fundraising apparatus that is outside of Trump." — @sarahlongwell25.bsky.social looking beyond 2026 on the GD pod

Let's talk about the early vote. w/ @jessicataylor.bsky.social

It’s fun to root for Dan Campbell even though he makes some WILD decisions

Nate Silver: This is the most the Democrats have been getting along in a long time.

Favreau: This town hall made me realize that JD Vance’s entire plan for 2028 is to pretend that the Trump administration never really happened.

"Rick Jackson's entire fortune is built on us having a broken health care system." –Keisha Lance Bottoms describes her opponent in the Georgia governor's race.

Pfeiffer: JD Vance can pretend like Trump's corruption doesn’t exist, but voters see it, and they’re going to make Republicans pay for it this fall.

"JD Vance, that smarmy little f*ck, getting up there and being like, “Oh, everyone’s complaining, but Vivek's ad tells it like it is.” What the f*ck?" - Favreau reacting to Vance fully supporting Ramaswamy's despicable ad against opponent, Amy Acton.

Favreau: The only enjoyable thing about JD Vance’s 2028 presidential campaign is going to be watching him put on the human suit and go out and do culturally expected things that a presidential candidate has to do, and just watch how awkward it is.

Bomani Jones breaks down the Knicks’ biggest problem, whether LeBron James is finally declining, and Jay-Z’s upcoming Super Bowl performance 👀 Click here for more 👇 youtu.be/hyXBj_a458Y?...

He had so many roles in his life but to me, he will always be Viper. RIP, Sir.

“It was so short but so good.” @profgalloway.com and @karaswisher.bsky.social mourn the end of Katie Zacharia’s brief stint as White House Press Secretary—and speculate about her replacement.

Dan Pfeiffer on Jon Ossoff's debate: They’re standing so close together and Ossoff is just ripping Mike Collins a new asshole.

Dan Pfeiffer: JD Vance has this image of cool that's towel-snapping homophobia and as someone who has been snapped by a towel a lot he's now trying to snap the towel.

Amy Walter on Trump holding campaign rallies: I don’t see much upside when he’s in people’s consciousness. It only reminds people of him.

Amy Walter on Republican's staying home on election day: That is the difference between Democrats having a good night, a great night, or a historic night.

Astead Herndon speaks with Shane Goldmacher about the way the GOP’s big money midterm strategy. www.vox.com/america-actu...

Meta claims it was all a big whoopsie that No Kings organizers were locked out of their accounts as the protests began today

Meta took down the No Kings organizing page today - the biggest day of protest this fall. They provided zero explanation. It stayed down for the entire afternoon until most of the protests were done. Outrageous. Put this on the January investigation list.

The Dodgers, who spent big to build an MLB power, now face an uncomfortable reality. Column, unlocked and free to read. www.nytimes.com/athletic/769...

On the offseason questions ahead for the Dodgers: www.nytimes.com/athletic/769...

“He’s far too involved in everything we do.” @karaswisher.bsky.social and @profgalloway.com raise concerns about Elon Musk’s outsized influence on U.S. policy toward Ukraine, amid new restrictions on its Starshield access.

Trump's closing message: I won my election. I’m here whether Republicans win or not.

Favreau on the Trump administration's raid of Ilhan Omar's home: It’s f*cking awful. If people think this kind of thing stops at Ilhan Omar, absolutely not.

Dan Pfeiffer on White House Press Secretary Katie Zacharia's firing: The White House is so f*cking incompetent and takes the briefings so un-seriously, that they just were like, "Yeah, of course anyone can do this on a Tuesday."

“We're not here to kink shame.” Dan Pfeiffer reacts to Trump’s praise of Senator Jon Husted’s ass.

@jonlovett.bsky.social on the President’s Islamophobic attacks on Abdul El-Sayed: Trump is deeply unpopular and Mike Rogers has embraced it. So this is what they’ve got.

Tommy Vietor responding to Pete Hegseth's plan to livestream an execution by firing squad: "He’s just a comical. evil f*cking wannabe."

"Apparently, [his grandfather] ran a bunch of brothels." Tommy Vietor gets Jon up to speed on the Trump family lore after the President's campaign event in Alaska.

“The tone was kindergarten.” — Jon and Tommy react to the new White House press secretary's first press briefing.

Jon Favreau: Are we going to find out three months ago this was a Nathan Fielder thing?

Jon Favreau reacting to Trump repeating his broken promise to give every American $5,000 if Republicans keep control of Congress: "No one f*cking believes this guy."

Pfeiffer: "MAGA-ism is now big government authoritarianism. It’s not small government capitalism."

🎧Latest Still Counting is live.🎧 And it’s a (not-actually-that-early?) 2028 Democratic Primary Draft! podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/sti… We’re also on YouTube! Like and subscribe and tell your mom about us!

Tommy Vietor: Trump mispronouncing countries names is a fine tradition at [the United Nations General Assembly].

"They’re staying very focused on the needs of the people." –Colin Kaepernick on the politicians he's most excited about: Abdul El-Sayed and Zohran Mamdani.

"Some Democrats have been outspent 30-to-1 over the last several months." – @jonfavs.bsky.social on Republican's campaign advantage and what you can do about it.

“I think she got some bad advice.” @karaswisher.bsky.social and @profgalloway.com argue over whether Sydney Sweeney’s provocative new ad is a career misstep or savvy business.

Apple unveils Apple Music Hall, a live music venue in London's Battersea Power Station with a capacity of up to 600 people and two recording and mixing studios (David Phelan/Forbes) Main Link | Techmeme Permalink

When you’ve lost white people in Florida.

@danpfeiffer.bsky.social: "The reason people are pissed is that Trump broke the two core promises of his campaign: lowering prices and no more wars."

@danpfeiffer.bsky.social: "It's great to have a president in the pocket of the companies who want no AI regulation, and a Congress who doesn’t know how to use, or maybe even spell, AI."

25 years later, 9/11’s impact on sports is still being felt. Bomani Jones and Howard Bryant discuss its aftermath in baseball, the NFL’s embrace of patriotism, Colin Kaepernick and George W. Bush’s iconic first pitch. Watch the full episode: youtu.be/RK4LHSOfCHU?...