Lenny Bronner

Lenny Bronner

@lennybronner.com

founding member of election bluesky also election + data at Broome Street Labs

6.7K followers236 following207 posts

Lenny Bronner reposted

Galen Druke
@galendruke.bsky.social

The UK is on the verge of elevating its 7th prime minister in 10 years. Marine Le Pen — now cleared to run for president — is the current front-runner against every potential opponent in France. Today @lennybronner.com and I discuss the reasons for Europe's major political upheaval.

Lenny Bronner
@lennybronner.com

Come for Mary's analysis of Iran polling, stay for my terrible Hungarian

Galen Druke@galendruke.bsky.social

NEW POD: Trump Declares Victory. Voters Send A Different Message. I spoke w/ Mary Radcliffe & @lennybronner.com about Trump’s ceasefire, how voters are liable to react, & how they’ve already reacted in WI and GA elections. We also previewed the election in Hungary this Sunday.

gdpolitics.comVIDEO: Trump Declares Victory. Voters Send A Different Message.The White House declared victory after agreeing to a fragile ceasefire with Iran. Voters are unlikely to see it that way, and they sent Republicans a warning sign in Tuesday’s elections.
Lenny Bronner
@lennybronner.com

Quite the survey from earlier this month in Germany. 61% of Left and 52% of Green voters would like Angela Merkel back as chancellor. Compared to only 22% of voters from her own center-right party.

Lenny Bronner reposted

Galen Druke
@galendruke.bsky.social

id a 2025 post-mortem on the latest GD POLITICS pod w/ @lennybronner.com, @linleyann.bsky.social & Lakshya Jain. We discussed the who, where & why behind Democrats' impressive performance + what it portends for '26. There's some Epstein file polling and moderates vs. progressives discourse too.

gdpolitics.comA 2025 Election Post-MortemThe numbers behind Democrats' impressive performance and what it means for 2026, plus the latest Epstein file polling.

Lenny Bronner reposted

Kabir K.
@kabirkhanna.bsky.social

Pooled and re-analyzed NJ/VA exit poll data to see which Trump voters were likeliest to vote Democrat for governor While only 5% of White Trump voters flipped, the rate was 21% for voters of color — 36% of Black voters and 17% of Latino voters And Latino women (25%) more than Latino men (10%) 1/2

Kabir K.@kabirkhanna.bsky.social

NYC isn't the country... But similar patterns in NJ/VA: Sherrill/Spanberger voters who didn't back Harris are younger, more diverse, less ideological, more focused on pocketbook issues than on Trump Consistent w/ Trump rating drops among young people, POC, less politically engaged More below 6/6

cbsnews.comThe voters Mamdani added to the Democratic coalition in New York, a CBS News analysisZohran Mamdani's mayoral campaign turned out lots of voters who didn't back Kamala Harris last year — they are ethnically diverse, younger and less affluent.
Lenny Bronner
@lennybronner.com

the naming of cats is a difficult matter

Rachel Holliday Smith@rachelholliday.bsky.social

the lowest stakes election nugget ever, for your enjoyment: curtis sliwa has six cats, but gave eight different names for them in three different interviews recently a fun kicker in our election newsletter this week, contributed by eagle-eyed @smaldo.bsky.social: www.thecity.nyc/newsletter/o...

Lenny Bronner
@lennybronner.com

try and beat me

Emily Giambalvo@emilygiam.bsky.social

We simulated what your bank account would look like if you kept betting parlays. Here we consider a five-leg parlay with -110 odds per leg. And we assume you're no better than random chance. (You probably aren't.) You might get lucky every so often, but breaking even in the long run is very hard.

Lenny Bronner reposted

Emily Giambalvo
@emilygiam.bsky.social

How America’s favorite sports bet is fueling sportsbook profits Parlays are becoming more popular, accounting for an increasing share of the money wagered on sports, according to a Post analysis of betting data. Bettors lose billions a year on these bets. www.washingtonpost.com/sports/inter...

washingtonpost.comAmericans can’t stop betting parlays. Sportbooks are cashing in.As betting booms, parlays are accounting for an increasing share of the money wagered on sports, according to a Washington Post analysis of state data.

Lenny Bronner reposted

Caitlin Gilbert
@caitlingilbert.bsky.social

🤳EXCLUSIVE: We analyzed real data from over 800 U.S. TikTok users to reveal how the app transforms casual users into power users. Extremely proud of this one, over a year in the making w/ @richardsima.bsky.social Leslie Shapiro @asteckelberg.bsky.social @ence.bsky.social wapo.st/4obueib

wapo.stHere’s how TikTok ‘power users’ end up scrolling 4 hours a day or moreWashington Post reporters analyzed data from over 800 TikTok users to learn how the app turns people into power users, some of whom spend hours per day scrolling.

Lenny Bronner reposted

Galen Druke
@galendruke.bsky.social

Demands from Dems provoked the government shutdown, but Reps are getting most of the blame so far. Why? I talked about it on GD POLITICS today w/ @lennybronner.com and Mary Radcliffe. We also discussed that poll out of PA showing Fetterman is -20 with PA Dems, but +40 with PA Reps.

gdpolitics.comWhy Americans Blame Republicans For The Government ShutdownDemands from Democrats provoked the shutdown, but so far Republicans are getting more blame.

Lenny Bronner reposted

Chris Warshaw
@chriswarshaw.bsky.social

Big update to @upshot.nytimes.com 2024 precinct map. Now includes most of CA and CO.

Chris Warshaw@chriswarshaw.bsky.social

The @nytimes.com just posted an updated version of their detailed map of the 2024 election results, with the data available for download. This is invaluable in part because funding constraints have slowed down academic efforts at releasing precinct-level results. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

nytimes.comAn Extremely Detailed Map of the 2024 ElectionSee how your neighborhood voted on our interactive, precinct-level results map of the presidential election.

Lenny Bronner reposted

David Karol
@davidkarol.bsky.social

Dems' education-based turnout advantage may be reduced in midterms compared to special elections, since turnout is higher in midterms. But it won't be zero. A swing against the President's party is normal. Dems need to gain only 3 seats to flip the House. It's be surprising if they didn't manage.

Lenny Bronner@lennybronner.com

Democrats are dominating special elections. But is that as good a sign for them as it used to be? I looked at the history -- and what’s shifting now. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

washingtonpost.comWhat Democratic swings in special elections mean for 2026Special election results are providing insight into the 2026 election outlook, with Democrats making significant gains across the country.
Lenny Bronner
@lennybronner.com

Also, an interesting finding: there looks like there is a divide in how well Dems do between red and blue states. Might be another sign of Democrats unpopularity in places they have governed.

Lenny Bronner
@lennybronner.com

broke: trying to infer election outcomes from yard signs woke: trying to infer election outcomes from google trends bespoke: trying to infer election outcomes from poll wait times