Logan S. Casey, PhD

Today. Every day. The fight is never over. Transgender people know who we are, and no Court or politician can take that from us. We will outlive this.

But if these initiatives are successful, it may mean these attacks—both in state houses and at the ballot box—continue for the foreseeable future. Learn more in MAP's new analysis. mapresearch.org/brief/the-re...

If voters reject these policies, it may signal to the politicians and lobbyists pushing these anti-transgender efforts that their attacks are unwelcome, potentially stemming the tide of this broader wave of attacks that has unfurled since 2020.

Five states—Arizona, Colorado, Missouri, Nebraska, and Washington—have anti-transgender measures on the November ballot, targeting sports participation, medical care for youth, and more. As a result, this election may mark a critical turning point for LGBTQ and especially transgender rights today.

Since 2020, political attacks on LGBTQ and especially transgender people have dramatically escalated. Until now, these attacks have unfolded in legislatures, government agencies, and executive offices. But in 2026, this fight is being put to voters directly. Read more below. ⬇️ 🧵

As we fight these measures in 2026, there are lessons we can take from the broader history of marriage-related measures. Read our brief to learn more. mapresearch.org/brief/the-re...

In Missouri, for example, legislators have ignored that voters already overturned an abortion ban in 2024, and have placed the issue back on the ballot this fall—this time adding medical care for transgender youth as "ballot candy." www.propublica.org/article/miss...

It is a deliberate revival of that same old strategy, this time aimed at a new target. And they are using this same strategy to attack more than just transgender rights. They are also attempting to roll back reproductive freedoms, weaken public institutions, and undermine democracy itself.

Those behind this agenda—having already reshaped many states' laws and undermined public attitudes toward transgender people through a sustained campaign of misinformation—are now trying to lock those changes into state constitutions, just as they did with marriage bans decades ago.

The emergence of anti-trans ballot measures this year is no accident. Since 2020, there's been a rapid escalation in political attacks on transgender people, causing huge shifts in state policy. (Follow @mapresearch.bsky.social for new work out next week covering these changes!)

From 1994 to 2012, there were at least 40 marriage-related ballot measures. In 2004 alone, more than a quarter of states in the country (13) faced one of these measures. (Click through to the research brief for an interactive version of this graphic.)

New @mapresearch.bsky.social out today! Five states—AZ, CO, MO, NE, WA—are facing anti-transgender ballot measures this fall. But this isn't a new tactic—it's a return to an old one we've seen before. mapresearch.org/brief/the-re...

New research from MAP & A4TE just released! We paired our Equality Maps policy data with their incredible 2022 U.S. Transgender Survey to show how, in states with more inclusive and clear identity document policies, more transgender people in the survey were able to successfully update their IDs.

Republicans are putting transphobia on the November ballot in seven questions in five states. The measures reflect broad anti-feminist aims, from "sex verification" for girls to limits on reproductive rights, an analysis by @billiejsweeney.bsky.social for Assigned Media and Important Context finds.

The new brief uses our 2022 policy data to match the 2022 survey data. See MAP's Equality Maps for the current status of ID laws across the country. We update and maintain our maps in real time, year round. mapresearch.org/equality-map...

One more finding from the brief: trans people in states w/unclear driver's license policies saw worse outcomes, like higher rates of denied changes. This shows the importance of having both an inclusive *and clear* policy, to minimize uncertainty for both trans residents and state officials.

Safer is especially important there. When trans people are forced to show mismatched ID, they face higher risk of harassment, discrimination, and even violence. It can also cause problems securing a job, a safe place to live, basic services, and more. mapresearch.org/fact-sheet/f...

In states with more inclusive policies, fewer trans people in the survey were denied changes, and more people *tried* to update their IDs. These are clear examples of policy working the way it's supposed to: making people's lives better, safer, and easier. mapresearch.org/brief/how-st...

The 2026 midterm elections will be the first national test of the new policy landscape documented in this report. To learn more, visit our website: www.mapresearch.org

At the beginning of 2021, 10 states were in the two lowest categories, 25 in the Fair category, and 15 states and D.C. in the two highest categories. By 2026, the total of Low or Negative states increased from 10 to 18. The total of Medium and High states also grew, from 15 to 20 states and D.C.

MAP’s analysis points to a clear pattern: state election policy has not moved in a single national direction over the past five years. Instead, states are moving farther apart with the strongest policy environments showing further improvement and the weakest experiencing further decline.

Today, MAP released new report, which provides a longitudinal analysis of how state election laws have changed since 2021. The resource is an effective tool for understanding the landscape voters will face this fall. 🔗 📒 Click below to keep reading: mapresearch.org/report/the-d...

Trans people lost at the Supreme Court today. And. Thanks to some incredible attorneys at the ACLU & Lambda Legal, we lost the best way we could have: narrowly and without answering a question we have absolutely no interest in a wildly conservative Court answering. open.substack.com/pub/sames/p/...

Just because SCOTUS affirms a type of discrimination does not mean that discrimination is required. This decision should not cause us to weaken our efforts for trans inclusion in general or trans inclusion in sports in particular. Cis allies, you very specifically, need to double down.

@chrisgeidner.bsky.social is another trusted legal analyst and journalist. Good, close analysis takes time, and Chris' work is always worth the wait.

@samames.bsky.social is one of the voices I'll be waiting to hear from about today's decision on transgender kids in sports, and especially about what these rulings *don't* mean. Give them a follow - they're a brilliant lawyer, long-time advocate, and a gorgeous writer to boot. sames.substack.com

Make your support more visible! Get connected via @transequality.bsky.social, state LGBTQ groups via @equalityfed.bsky.social, your local community centers via CenterLink (www.lgbtqcenters.org), and more!

The point is pretty simple. Despite escalating attacks, the reality is that support for and acceptance of transgender people is widespread—and that transgender people can and do live joyful, fulfilling lives, given the chance. But instead, politicians are making a game out of trans people's lives.

And while these data points were already published, they are so important to keep elevating: when transgender people are able to access the medical care they need, their life satisfaction dramatically improves.

See also Fig 28 from @prri.org, showing that "Solid majorities of all religious groups agree that transgender people deserve the same rights and protections as other Americans." prri.org/research/map...

Trans people in faith communities also reported widespread experiences of support. This is especially notable given the frequent and false pitting of faith and transgender rights against each other. Trans people are also people of faith, and many people of faith support trans people and rights.

Trans people themselves reported strong support at schools, workplaces, and in their families. For example, among USTS respondents who are out to their coworkers, 74% say their coworkers are supportive of them being transgender. (Interactive graphics on our site!) mapresearch.org/brief/suppor...

ICYMI: Last week, MAP & A4TE published previously unreleased data from the 2022 U.S. Trans Survey, the largest ever survey of U.S. transgender and nonbinary people. Despite what politics and headlines might suggest, support for trans people is the norm. It's the politicians who are out of step.