Marc Debus

Marc Debus

@marcdebus.bsky.social

Professor of Political Science at the University of Mannheim. Co-PI of the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES). Editor-in-chief, Politische Vierteljahresschrift/German Political Science Quarterly.

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Marc Debus reposted

Delighted that our SI at @pspolisci.bsky.social is now out. House forecasts unanimously predict Democrat victory while those for Senate point to a tight contest. Further info in below thread + see here for the SI introduction: doi.org/10.1017/S104... @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org @apsa.bsky.social

doi.orgIntroduction to Forecasting the 2026 US Midterm Elections Special Issue at PS: Political Science & Politics | PS: Political Science & Politics | Cambridge CoreIntroduction to Forecasting the 2026 US Midterm Elections Special Issue at PS: Political Science & Politics
Debra Leiter@debraleiter.bsky.social

Who will win the Midterms? Thrilled to announce the new @pspolisci.bsky.social Special Issue "Forecasting the 2026 US Midterms", edited by @johnkenny.bsky.social & me. 17 new articles analyzing expectations for the House, Senate, and Governors' races this November. www.cambridge.org/gb/universit...

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(2) Parties in net-receiving countries are more supportive of redistribution within the EU, but we find no consistent differences for other aspects of European integration, such as strengthening the European Parliament or the internal market. /3

We find two main patterns: (1) Eurosceptic parties give EU issues less attention in countries that receive more from the EU budget than they contribute. Downplaying the EU seems to be one way for these parties to respond to the financial benefits of membership. /2

Dass der SPD-Kandidat bei der Landtagsvizepräsidentenwahl in Sachsen-Anhalt so deutlich durchfällt, während der AfD-Landtagspräsidentenkandidat so klar gewonnen hat, ist auch ein massives koalitionspolitisches Signal.

Für die @artefr.bsky.social-Doku „Sind die Parteien an allem Schuld?“ durfte ich ein paar Einschätzungen unter anderem zur Entwicklung des deutschen Parteiensystems beitragen. Für die bessere Visualisierung mit Hilfe des Sortierens von Süßigkeiten 😊 www.arte.tv/de/videos/12...

Die Wahrscheinlichkeit für die Bildung einer rot-grün-roten Koalition in #Berlin liegt laut Koalitionsprognosemodell bei 90%, die Wahrscheinlichkeit für eine Koalition aus CDU, Grünen und SPD bei nur 6%, falls das BSW es nicht in das Landesparlament schafft. 1/2

Marc Debus reposted

Marc Debus reposted

Marc Debus reposted

Nach der Wahl ist vor der Wahl. Nach Sachsen-Anhalt richtet sich der Blick auf Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. In knapp zwei Wochen wird dort gewählt. Einige Dynamiken ähneln Sachsen-Anhalt, andere sind deutlich anders. Ein kurzer Thread zur Ausgangslage in MV. bsky.app/profile/dawu...

#Wahltrend Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (03.09.26): AfD: 35,9%, SPD: 30%, Linke: 11%, CDU: 9,1%, Grüne: 5%, BSW: 4%, FDP: 3%, Sonstige: 2% ➤ dawum.de/Mecklenburg-... | #Wahlumfrage #ltwmv #Sonntagsfrage #MecklenburgVorpommern

Ignoriert man die Ablehnung der Zusammenarbeit mit der AfD seitens der CDU, dann wäre eine Kooperation/Koalition AfD/CDU mit 51% das wahrscheinlichste Ergebnis des Regierungsbildungsprozesses, gefolgt von einer Wahrscheinlichkeit von 33% für eine Kooperation/Koalition aus AfD und BSW. 2/2

Marc Debus reposted

US child vaccination rates have plunged since before the pandemic, with kindergarten classrooms in more than 70% of counties now lacking herd immunity against measles.

Marc Debus reposted

📢 First paper from my PhD dissertation now out in JEPOP! Parties don’t just campaign on policies. They also try to convince voters they’re competent, trustworthy and capable of governing. But do valence appeals actually relate to polling gains during election campaigns? 📄 doi.org/10.1080/1745...

doi.orgValence strategies and polling support during electoral campaignsValence issues play a central role in electoral competition, yet less is known about whether emphasizing valence during campaigns is associated with shifts in party support, and under what conditio...

Marc Debus reposted

Replying to @stesangio.bsky.social

I examine this using campaign communication from the Comparative Campaign Dynamics Dataset (@marcdebus.bsky.social et al.) and daily polling data from 57 parties across 11 elections in 8 European countries. Rather than comparing parties, I focus on within-party polling dynamics during campaigns.

Marc Debus reposted

Marc Debus reposted

Marc Debus reposted

Which city/district councils have live streams of their meeting and can they serve as a data source for political scientists? Do politicians behave differently when they are on a live stream? Find out in the open access research note by Paul Reimers (in German) doi.org/10.1007/s11615-026-00672-8

doi.orgBridging the Gap? Liveübertragungen in Kreistagen und Stadträten als Datengrundlage für die politikwissenschaftliche Forschung - Politische VierteljahresschriftThe scarcity of meeting minutes makes it difficult to analyze the working methods of local political bodies and the behavior of the actors involved. The increasing availability of livestreams and video recordings of district and city council meetings is helping to remedy this situation. Combined with technical innovations for extracting and processing large (multimodal) datasets, this availability enables new perspectives for local political research. However, for this wealth of data to be widely used, it must be generalizable to the broader population of local government bodies. Accordingly, questions arise regarding whether districts and cities that offer livestreams and recordings differ systematically from those that do not and whether these broadcasts induce shifts in local political debates.To this end, based on systematic research and a survey of district council members, this study describes the legal, political, and financial framework for introducing such recordings and examines the resulting influence on speakers’ behavior. Meeting recordings are available, particularly in large cities, but have so far been scarce in districts with low population density; furthermore, significant differences exist among the federal states. The survey indicates that adjustments to expanded public visibility of meetings are also occurring at the local level. Thus, the external validity of meeting recordings as a data source is not yet established, which should be taken into account during research design and case selection.

Marc Debus reposted

An der @unigreifswald.bsky.social sind zwei unbefristete Vollzeitstellen ausgeschrieben: eine für Politikwissenschaftler:innen, eine für Soziolog:innen. Bewerbungsfrist: 31. August 2026. Teilen ausdrücklich erwünscht. Die Ausschreibungen folgen im nächsten Post. Fragen gerne per DM.

In this oa contribution to Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Jale Tosun, Nils Schütz, Elisabeth Maikranz and I show that the programmatic gap between churches and Christian Democratic parties in Germany on the issue of migration has widened over the years. rdcu.be/ft6wy /1

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We further show that Catholics, and Protestants in particular, exhibit a declining probability of supporting CDU/CSU over time, whereas the support for the Greens increases among these groups. /3

In this oa contribution to Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Jale Tosun, Nils Schütz, Elisabeth Maikranz and I show that the programmatic gap between churches and Christian Democratic parties in Germany on the issue of migration has widened over the years. rdcu.be/ft6wy /1

The two Christian Democratic parties, CDU and CSU, have become increasingly critical of migration, while the Roman Catholic and Protestant Churches have maintained their permissive positions. /2

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Die Befunde legen nahe, dass öffentlich ausgetragene Konflikte innerhalb einer Koalition die Zufriedenheit mit einer Regierung nachhaltig schädigen können. /5

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So fanden die FDP-Wähler von 2021 im Frühsommer 2023 die AfD nur etwas weniger unsympathisch als ihren grünen Koalitionspartner. Auch die SPD wurde im Schnitt kaum sympathischer als die AfD seitens der FDP-Wähler vom Herbst 2021 eingestuft. /3

Zusätzlich nahmen die Wählerschaften eine ideologische Differenzierung zwischen den Koalitionspartnern wahr, welche vor allem von den Junior-Koalitionspartnern getragen wurde. /4

Insbesondere bewerteten die FDP-Wähler von 2021 SPD und Grüne, aber auch ihre eigene Partei im Zeitverlauf deutlich schlechter, was das schlechte Wahlergebnis insbesondere der FDP von Februar 2025 miterklärt. /2