Matías Scaglione

U.S. household-income momentum (year-over-year change) turned negative in August, falling to −0.35%. Real median household income was unchanged over one month and down 1.2% over three months. Dashboard: motioresearch.com/dashboard/ #econsky

U.S. household-income momentum nearly stalled in July, falling from +2.26% in May to +0.17%. It remains positive, so no Motio Rule warning was triggered. But excluding the pandemic disruption, this was the sharpest two-month decline since the momentum record began in 1995. #EconSky

Real and nominal median household income also fell for a second straight month. The next releases will show whether household income rebounds or continues to weaken. Dashboard: motioresearch.com/dashboard/

A routine data update. Not a routine set of numbers. We’ve published our first monthly U.S. household-income update since introducing the Motio Rule on August 11. 🧵 #econsky

The momentum series excludes Census-imputed income data. Motio’s longstanding headline series includes them—and it weakened too. Real and nominal median household income both fell for a second straight month.

A routine data update. Not a routine set of numbers. We’ve published our first monthly U.S. household-income update since introducing the Motio Rule on August 11. 🧵 #econsky

Household-income momentum fell to +0.17% in July, from +1.09% in June and +2.26% in May. Excluding pandemic-affected observations, this was the sharpest two-month decline in the momentum record, which begins in March 1995.

Today we're introducing the Motio Rule: a new U.S. recession-warning indicator built on household-income momentum, drawn from CPS microdata that isn't subject to routine revision. 🧵 #econsky

As of June 2026, household-income momentum stood at +1.1 percent. The economy remained in a mature household-income expansion. But household-income momentum posted the largest one-month decline during a mature expansion in the series to date

Today we're introducing the Motio Rule: a new U.S. recession-warning indicator built on household-income momentum, drawn from CPS microdata that isn't subject to routine revision. 🧵 #econsky

Year-over-year change is Motio’s principal measure of household-income direction and momentum. Real household-income growth had strengthened to 2.7% in April before easing to 2.6% in May. The full percentage-point decline in June sharply interrupted that stronger trajectory. #econsky

U.S. household-income momentum slowed sharply in June. Real median household income fell 0.5% to $88,390. Year-over-year growth slowed from 2.6% to 1.6%, while nominal median household income fell 0.3%. #econsky