Menzie Chinn
Menzie Chinn
@mchinn.bsky.social
Professor of Public Affairs and Economics, University of Wisconsin, and Blogger at Econbrowser. All views are my own.
5.9K followers745 following1.7K posts
Menzie Chinn reposted
Replying to @jasonfurman.bsky.social
BTW, Taylor Rules and Taylor rule based implicit reaction functions are continuously updated on the Econvitals Taylor Rule page. https://econvitals.org/tools/taylor-rule/
Conference Board's Confidence index rises, but both Confidence and (adjusted) U.Michigan Sentiment remain at low levels #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Worrisome, considering the CinC's mental state #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Can you rely on the Canadian term spread for prognostication, given the 2024 false positive? #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Will mechanical nowcast beat consensus for PCE deflator? #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
@matias.motioresearch.com & Romina Soria at Motio Research on Monthly median household income, up (a little) in September #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Jason Furman presents EconVitals! It's going to be my new morning consult #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Median real weekly earnings down in Q3! #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Jet fuel prices in the US, abroad up... #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
"Insurance" for AI hyperscalers, and other AI boom related debt #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Higher for longer: expected Treasury yields #EconSky @wsj.com econbrowser.com/archives/202...
WSJ survey, IMF WEO and nowcasts on GDP's near term path #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Is the term spread still useful alone, or does it need help (recession prediction-wise)? #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Industrial prodn up, real retail sales flattish, mfg prodn & real retail ex-gas sales down... #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
September cost of living, real wages #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Menzie Chinn reposted
Whatever number of rate hikes you wanted this year before this morning, you should now want one more. The Fed had made an 0.3% core CPI report its trigger for a rate hike in September. Now we see another such. Skipping an October hike would now be a very political choice: **An Inflation... 1/
Employment downside surprise, but maybe enough for breakeven? Household survey shows employment below Jan '25 levels #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
The term spread and the non-recession of 2024 #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Personal income trajectory revised up... with slight decline in August; employment path continues to diverge from output measures #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
"The Consumer Confidence Index deteriorated notably in September, following two prior months of softening"... #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
10 year yields are up, but so are those for maturities > 4 months... #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Jeff Frankel: "Oligarchy is a symptom, not a cause" #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
The capex picture of 2001 looks different now vs. what it did at the time #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Menzie Chinn reposted
Nearly 170,000 pounds of meat products are being recalled because they were falsely labeled as having gone through federal inspection. The affected products were produced before Sept. 22 and may have false USDA inspection labels that say “EST. 1363.”
10 year rates (heck all rates) rising, nominal, real #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Refiner cap util at 97.5% for week ending 9/11 #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Menzie Chinn reposted
Replying to @weakinstrument.bsky.social
2/n: Banning diesel exports would *temporarily* provide some price relief for most of the country, but not for New England. Because pipelines don't run that far north, PADD 1A has to import large amounts of diesel, which means it's competing with a (structurally short diesel) Europe for barrels
Menzie Chinn reposted
I'm not sure mfg employment is really rising... #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
The State of Working Wisconsin, 2026, fm High Road Strategy Center #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Gasoline, diesel prices up 3.7% and 3.9%, week/week econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Menzie Chinn reposted
U.S. household-income momentum (year-over-year change) turned negative in August, falling to −0.35%. Real median household income was unchanged over one month and down 1.2% over three months. Dashboard: motioresearch.com/dashboard/ #econsky
Fed funds above or below Taylor rule implied target? #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Menzie Chinn reposted
Replying to @mchinn.bsky.social
Hey, I was just looking at those numbers too! I think EJ is mixing up some cause and effect. The real reason is inflated margins, and a nice side order of writeoffs from Tax Scam 2.0. It ain't from more business. jakehasablog.blogspot.com/2026/09/more...
Heritage Foundation's EJ Antoni points to corp mfg *aftertax* income surge as proof of mfg recovery #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
IP, mfg prodn below consensus, mfg declines #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Pictures of a diversification (fm official holdings of US Trsys) #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
GDPNow at 5.1% q/q AR for Q3, while GS at 2.3%; #FTxBooth 2026 q4/q4 f'cast at 2% #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Betting odds on a Republican Senate post-midterms collapses (the collapse starts right after US-Iran war begins, with fluctuations) #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Fed funds up, betting is on up by year's end, perhaps twice? #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Brent spot surges, implying further derivatives price increases #EconSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Real retail sales rebound slightly above June peak (ex-gas station sales slightly below June peak) ##conSky econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Menzie Chinn reposted
Breaking News: President Trump said he would cancel a $257 million renovation of the Kennedy Center if his name wasn’t added to the building.