Matt Grossmann

Turnout rises quickly with age, especially in midterms, & survey respondents overreport their confirmed participation. In 2026, young respondents are both more enthusiastic & more Democratic than usual in many important elections. Hard for pollsters; overperformance key for Dems

We have Benson up 12.4 but El-Sayed only up 2.5, with Benson doing better among Independents & Moderates as well as Black and Catholic voters (compared to El-Sayed): ippsr.msu.edu/news/msu-pol...

Education voter divides tend to decline (& income divides increase) when elections are more about the economy than cultural issues. Dem Senate (right) & House (left) campaigns are very economic-focused this cycle, Republicans campaigns are mixed. mediaproject.wesleyan.edu/releases-101...

Lot of fear of people lying to polls. We don't have much evidence for it & don't need it to explain error. People uncomfortable sharing their choice are more likely to be in the now ~98% of people who don't respond than to take ~20 min survey to lie. Non-response much bigger deal

Reasonably broad Senate map this year, though about the same for the House, after a reduction in perceived competitiveness over time

lower interest rates do not help incumbents win elections; 385 elections in 18 countries, 1900–2020 cepr.org/publications...

Generic ballot polls currently imply a gain in the Democrats' 2-party vote share (from the prior election) slightly above the post-Watergate election & not seen since 1948 (& comparable to 1966 & 1994 for Republicans, but not 2010)

In popular music lyrics, positive & negative emotion-related words have declined over time & artists’ careers, alongside decreases in references to social relationships (though anger & anxiety may be exceptions): msutoday.msu.edu/news/2026/10...

Democrats are more likely to overperform polls in blue states & underperform them in red states. If you use historical errors to estimate 2026 changes, that would be trouble for Democratic Senate chances in Texas & Alaska (as well as IA & KS). www.economist.com/graphic-deta...

The shift in the generic ballot margin for this cycle appears to be the largest on record (or close to it). Historical data: calgara.github.io/working_pape... 2025-2026 data: www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ba...

Polls point to a clear blue wave. The chance of systematic polling error favoring the Democrats is higher than the chance that (a) anything shifts before the election or that (b) key races will move in different unexpected directions. Either the polling is off or a wave is coming

I am starting a new feature where I extend some interviews from the Science of Politics podcast for Hypertext, the Niskanen substack 1st up is on housing as anti-development politics: hypertext.niskanencenter.org/p/housing-ni...

From my just-released article in @pspolisci.bsky.social

special elections are predictive of general election outcomes, particularly during midterm election cycles and in competitive districts, a good sign for Democrats in 2026 www.cambridge.org/core/service...

When Voters Prioritize Economics Over Culture, the Electoral Battleground Expands: honestgraft.substack.com/p/when-voter...

We are starting a Policy Entrepreneurship program (as a grad student working group to start) next semester. See below for the outline. If you have done anything similar and have advice, please share.

There is likely to be a reinventing government plan in preparation for the next Democratic administration; it may entail various efforts to improve bureaucracy in addition to repealing Trump efforts: www.vox.com/politics/505... But this didn't happen much under Biden

With codex, I created an electronic music dance instruction site: ravemove.org If you have a chance to take a look or give it a try, please let me know how it goes.

Voters living near data centers are moving further toward Democrats economist.com/graphic-deta...

There is no disagreement among parties or interest groups that El-Sayed is underperforming other Dems or that Cooper & Peltola are overperforming them, just as there is no disagreement that Paxton is underperforming and Collins is overperforming. Trust where the sides spend $ over what pundits say.

In state legislatures, restrictions on member speaking opportunities and ending debate are associated with higher legislative productivity onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

On Monday, we are hosting an event for students at MSU on the state constitutional convention vote. We are experimenting with formats to try to generate dialogue across political lines: ippsr.msu.edu/constitution...

Data center expansion & the AI backlash Data centers are built in places with less capacity to object. Will backlash start feasible AI regulation or empower shifting harms to others? New #ScienceOfPolitics podcast with Vasu Kaul & Daniel Schiff www.niskanencenter.org/data-center-...

In the unlikely event that Dems won TX, IA, & AK but lost MI & ME, it could hurt further left candidates leading up to 2028 as a consistent electability narrative emerged. But most other scenarios would likely be interpretable by both sides of internal Democratic Party feuds

Some argued US backsliding could be addressed with legal penalties against Trump 1, citing global examples. But targeting Trump may have aided his comeback. Now Brazil & France may add evidence that backsliding parties gain from prosecution. Who has updated this analysis?

argument that AI will spread expert consensus & aid technocracy: www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/how-ai-wil... Reasonable (especially for intra-elite debate). But increasing role of experts & educated in governance is a longstanding trend (that this continues, not reverses); & still provokes backlash

The 2024 election saw straight-ticket congressional & presidential voting at modern highs & ticket-splitting at historic lows, with declining effects of incumbency & demographics www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Some signs of a Canadian effect in the midterms, leading to Democratic advantages and Republican distancing from Trump in Michigan, Maine, and Alaska (plus northern House races): honestgraft.substack.com/p/will-there...

NEW: In March the White House released an FY27 budget request that zeroed out the National Science Foundation's directorate of Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences (SBE). For months it was unclear what would happen. Now, with FY26 over, the damage to SBE is coming to light. My reporting:

I went a little crazy and modeled every statehouse this way: claude.ai/code/artifac...

Democrats are overperforming in 5 states Trump won by double digits, with Senate candidates rated better & less extreme than the broader Democratic Party & than the Republican candidates www.nytimes.com/2026/10/03/u...

Since 2000, the average college course description has more political content & more liberal slant. Changes are modest relative to persistent cross-field differences; student demand for liberal content rises over the 2010s & peaks in 2020 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

women congressional candidates may be more ideologically extreme and are more likely to be punished for their ideological positions than men journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...

Americans (open-ended) evaluations of presidential candidates have increasingly emphasized personal qualities over policy; & respondents articulate fewer distinct criteria journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...

Bipartisan negotiated settlements remain an important path to policy change, often requiring a lot of behind-the-scenes work & working around elections & presidential involvement. Possible post-election action www.reuters.com/legal/litiga...

Vulnerable Members of Congress are LocalMaxing Facing tough re-elections, legislators spend more time at home & focus on local bills & serving constituents over national policy New #ScienceOfPolitics podcast/transcript with Jaclyn Kaslovsky www.niskanencenter.org/vulnerable-m...

I enjoyed Blockers, the new Michael Lewis book on DOGE. Again, the reporting at the time was mostly correct: it was haphazard & inexperienced efforts that degraded government without achieving savings. But most effects are long-term & harder to see. hookedlansing.com/book/9781324...

DOGE contract cuts were concentrated in counties that gave Trump less support in 2024 www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

We have the book cover for Policymaking for Realists! There may be time for small changes if you have them.