Charlie Hunt

This is my favorite slide to open up my U.S. Congress courses with to quantitatively prove to my students how much I unironically care about Congress. It's my daily average heart rate from my Apple Watch over a 5-yr period. The #1 highest day in that period is circled in red.

Ever angrily deleted a campaign fundraising text or email? This week on Scandalized, Jaci and Charlie unpack the campaign finance system behind increasingly desperate and downright dishonest fundraising asks.

Pretty proud of this one. @jaclynkettler.bsky.social and I dive deep on increasingly psychotic fundraising practices, with assists from our pal @dwillis.bsky.social and the deep research by @adambonica.bsky.social and @shanegoldmacher.bsky.social. www.boisestatepublicradio.org/podcast/scan...

We're incredibly proud that not one but two articles in @pspolisci.bsky.social's special issue on forecasting the midterm elections make use of The Downballot's data! One on special elections by @charlesrhunt.com, and another by @algaraca.bsky.social et al. using presidential results by district.

In next week's episode of Scandalized, @jaclynkettler.bsky.social and I dive into precisely this devastating trend, including Adam's painstaking research on it. www.npr.org/podcasts/125...

Basically all my findings point to a monster year for Democrats. 1) Special election overperformance compared to the eventual House overperformance in the popular vote is directionally more predictive in midterm than presidential years. 2026 outpaces any other recent year, including 2018.

From my just-released article in @pspolisci.bsky.social

this is why you should have to be at least 90 years old to run for president. these people haven’t even really found their footing yet. let them navigate their way through what’s known as the “aimless eighties” before taking on the job

*putting a bomb in a car* cars will soon be able to explode

One exciting discovery for me this election cycle is that sarcastic whining, it turns out, is by far the least endearing candidate quality known to our species 

This is a big deal. DC fed judge says that DOJ's pursuit (and use) of the state voter files is unlawful, on a bunch of different grounds. And effectively confirms that for the 18 states that submitted files willingly, whoever collected the files at DOJ Civil Rights committed federal crimes.

Trump is basically claiming that he pardoned a crook who didn't deserve it for purely political resasons. This alone is worthy of impeachment and removal; overall, Trump's abuse of power pardons are easy calls for legitimate impeachment and removal. Whether he brags about it or not.

Horrifying: Arizona Democratic congressional candidate Bernadette Greene-Placentia was raped by a man after he knocked her out. Another man approached her to do the same. “She began swinging her foot at him. ‘Not even worth it,’ she heard the man say as he moved away.”

We’re back, baby!

Sad news everyone. Our beloved friend the computer has now become a hated enemy

no wait don’t go

This is the funniest thing I've seen today, possibly ever

Shocking though it is, exactly this viewpoint has been voiced directly to me *many* times over the years from people from across the political spectrum. My sense is it's way, way more common than we think.

So much of the lens on culture has been turned into a numbers game, where everything is about chart placements and streaming numbers and data. Its a horse race to who gets to do data best, and all of these dorks forget that people just want a song that will make them cry at the grocery store.

pretty sure JD has talked more about trans children in the past week than Talarico has in the past three years

i'm always saying this

whenever i hear some variation on "but what if trump does X or Y or Z" i think of this ulysses s. grant remark to a subordinate during the wilderness campaign.

Surf's up 🌊

RCP Generic Ballot on 9/16/18: D+8.3 RCP Generic Ballot on 9/16/26: D+8.6

If the Ds win the House, depending on the size of their majority, "the DSA-affiliated lawmakers’ reach and power, despite their small numbers, could extend beyond elections and deep into the process of legislating," write SoRelle Wyckoff Gaynor & @charlesrhunt.com theconversation.com/from-the-fre...

So darkly funny that his daughter makes the obvious airtight argument adhering perfectly to his “well rounded” comment, which happens to be the hallmark of liberal arts education; he then clarifies that what he actually wants is for her to have a variety of viewpoints, as long as they’re all his.

BREAKING: It made the final cut. Congratulations, Michigan, you might have the best voting sticker of 2026.

Dems about to flip a Trump+19 state legislative district in PA, just FYI

@jonbois.bsky.social watching baseball

When Julia Curlee was in the CIA, she was guided by the motto “Service before politics. Country before self.” The Trump White House needed her—until her gender identity became public. On Radio Atlantic, she tells her story to Adam Harris: theatln.tc/aP7x2DgM

I agree w/ Meta AI that this would have been quite a shocking choice

The fundraising texts you delete are working on someone. It’s infuriating and heartbreaking. An 85yo in Ohio gave more than double the value of his home. A 91yo in an Indianapolis senior facility gave 25K times. The DCCC/DSCC don’t just tolerate the spammers who exploit seniors. They take part.

Do these dudes really not grasp the unspeakably high wattage of Huge Loser Energy stuff like this gives off?

Something I didn’t include in the story: Rep. Miller expressed to the judge he was worried about making future court hearings over his CPO because Republicans have a “very small majority.” His lawyer basically told him to shut up.

Per my research, "he's not from around here" is a bad enough hit. But this is a good example of a downstream effect, which is that it makes it easier to form a narrative around place/space-related issues like data centers. "He's from LA, and thus wants to make where you live more like LA."

We 💙 county-level shifts over time from a measurement standpoint because county lines don't change — i.e., these shifts can't be attributed to things like gerrymandering. Only real culprits could be 1) Migration, 2) Generational shifts, 3) Turnout differences, or 4) Party-switching.