Max Hailperin

Max Hailperin

@maxhailperin.bsky.social

max.hailperin@gmail.com

873 followers75 following3.9K posts

If a judge can't find a better authority to support their position than the Federalist Papers, that's not a good sign. And when the quote from those papers, upon closer examination, does not in fact support the judge's position, that's another bad sign.

In Minnesota, the way we determine who won an election is through the certification process, backed up if necessary by the courts. Not through social media posts, regardless who is doing the posting. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

This week, Minneapolis in-person voting was 122% of 2024's corresponding week, but mail was only 58%, so overall ballots cast were 101% of the 2024 level for the week. Even that parity is remarkable comparing a midterm to a presidential election. See below regarding the full election to date.

For the full election to date, in-person is only 106% of 2024 rather than 122% because the difference only became substantial lately. Further growth in this number is a distinct possibility. Likewise, the total ballots accepted figure is 81% of 2024's level to date, rather than the 101% seen lately.

Next Sunday is an early voting day throughout Minnesota by legislative mandate, but today was also one in Minneapolis, voluntarily. Not a lot of people took advantage of it. Maybe folks get their info from statewide news sources?

Remember, the court of public opinion matters as much as the real courts. And in the court of public opinion, one can make a lot of hay out of one judge agreeing that serious questions are being raised. And out of not getting those questions resolved before ballots are made irretrievable.

Leah Litman@leahlitman.bsky.social

Agreed - 2-1 or 3-0 against the federal government (with possible Bumatay separate writing about how the federal government is raising serious issues on the merits 🤢🙄)

What are those questions? As best I can tell: Did Congress in making non-citizen voting a misdemeanor have a desire not just to punish such voting but to deter it, and does that desire for deterrence in turn imply that the federal executive can demand a state take specific actions to stop it?

Local angle: Smiley v. Holm was a case from Minnesota. Any true Minnesota election geek will immediately recognize the name "Holm" as being that of the longest serving Minnesota Secretary of State.

Rick Hasen@rickhasen.bsky.social

Judge Bennett says that the Elections Clause gives the power to the states to decide election rules, not the federal government. Judge Bennett cites the case of Smiley v. Holm. The DOJ judge doesn't know about the case. (He's obviously not a voting specialist)

Minnesota politicians keep raising the idea of subjecting election-day registrants to provisional balloting so that they can be verified before their ballot is counted. This has become particularly popular with regard to residence proved by a voucher. There's one big problem: ...

There's no meaningful additional verification of residence that can be done within the few days that are available to decide whether or not to count a provisional ballot. The standard residence verification is to send mail and see if it comes back undeliverable. That takes time.

These are all also places you can drop off a Minneapolis ballot you voted at home. (You can also drop off for up to three other people.) Time's getting tight for mailing ballots back — this could be a good option.

This post is unavailable.

Generally one compares election statistics to 4 years before rather than 2 years before. But many wonder: how does 2026 compare with 2024? In Minneapolis, judging by the past 6 days, in-person is up enough to somewhat more than compensate for the major drop in mail, compared to 2024.

Max Hailperin reposted

In 2022, the @minnesotareformer.com published a seven-part explanation of how Minnesota elections work authored by yours truly. Changes since then are generally minor, so the series still is relevant. If anyone has anything they want an update on or any remaining questions, please ask. 🧵

Thanks to some posts from @serafinas.bsky.social, the 2027 budgeting for Minneapolis Elections & Voter Services has become a topic on here. I am not privy to details of that budgeting, but my impression is that part of what's happening is a tactic to create some illusion of savings. See below.

If expenses are shifted from being incurred every year to only being incurred when there is an election, then they appear to go away so far as the 2027 budget goes, because there are no elections scheduled to be conducted in 2027. The key word here being "scheduled."

If, as is widely expected, there turns out to be a special primary and a special election, then those will be the subject of a supplemental budget request, rather than being part of the main budget proposal. The number of dollars may also shrink in the process, but even if not, it *looks* better.

Residence is not routinely enforced, but one of the surest ways to get it enforced, right up there with voting two places, is to be a high profile political figure.

Adam Bonin@adambonin.bsky.social

Scott Presler doth protest too much, methinks. I talked to @thebulwark.com about the legality of out-of-state activists claiming his Beaver County PA "home" as a temporary residence for voting here in the 2024 presidential election. TL;DR: I don't think it's legal!

Some of you know I currently occupy a position that sounds similar to one of the ones mentioned in the second post of this thread. That's just a function of it being hard to describe our org chart concisely. I'm in a temporary position. The ones slated for elimination are ongoing positions.

Serafina@serafinas.bsky.social

I should have mentioned that my office is Minneapolis Elections & Voter Services. The Mayor's budget eliminates seven staff members less than two weeks before an anxiety-inducing midterm. No more high school election judge program. No more voter outreach.

Minneapolis's South Early Vote Center at Bethel Lutheran Church has been seeing strong turnout since it opened. Today the one-day popup site was at Powderhorn Park, less than a mile away. So what happened? They *both* had strong turnout. Southsiders like to vote, apparently.

Life as a storage-unit customer: Corporate sends me a notice my rent is going up to an amount I calculate as being an 87% increase. I call the local office; they adjust it to a new rate that I calculate as being a 31% increase. That's enough less bad that I don't go through the hassle of moving.

Max Hailperin reposted

When the mayor's proposed budget eliminates half our office, we fortify ourselves with baked goods. Yesterday it was pastries from Dahlia. Today our colleague baked for us.

Max Hailperin reposted

Gives me a chance to update this thread (bsky.app/profile/dbra...). With 30,000+ early votes in, Minneapolis is already at 2/3rds of 2022’s early voting 12 days before Election Day & 57% of 2018’s midterm record 52,000. Ward 6 blossomed after Tuesday‘s popup voting. Today is Powerhorn Park, 11a-6p.

Max Hailperin@maxhailperin.bsky.social

There are two different ways to compare Minneapolis wards' early voting: number of ballots (bars on the right) or percentage of registered voters (shades of green on the left, or hover). I'm not convinced either is helpful, but at least be aware they differ. vote.minneapolismn.gov/results-data...

Tad Jude, candidate for Minnesota Secretary of State, was asked about the 2012 vote in which Minnesotans rejected a photo ID requirement. His memory apparently failed him, so he just made stuff up. Judge for yourself.

For all I know, he might be right that the chickenpox vaccine is close to an mRNA vaccine. I have no idea how the storage in the back of the pharmacy is organized. They could be right next to each other.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com

Minnesota Republican state Sen. Bill Lieske: "We were trying to have a chickenpox party. We had some kids that we know that had chickenpox, and I was trying to get my kids there, because the chickenpox vaccine is close to an mRNA vaccine ... do the research yourself."

Honestly, I think the calculation that it will increase GOP turnout more than it will increase DFL turnout might be correct. Not in the district, but the district is foregone conclusion anyhow.

taylr@taylordahlin.com

CD5 stands with ilhan omar because she has our back and this clear attempt at election intimidation in minnesota is only going to drive even more DFL turnout

Seems like not a lot of other people are making the segue from Open Streets Hennepin to the flamenco tribute to Jimi Hendrix that's starting imminently at the Granada. Folks don't know what they're missing. Heck, I barely know what I'm not missing.