Sebastian Carl

Happy #NFL kickoff day! I looked at the betting markets and determined the implied probabilities of season outcomes, team ratings and strength of schedule. For more details and full text see mrcaseb.com/posts/nfl_te...

-- WEEK 7 #NFL 🏈 Playoff Leverage -- Here you can see 1.) how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game, and 2.) the combined playoff leverage of the teams involved in each game, sorted by kickoff time.

Also released minor update nflplotR v1.7.0 with the latest rebrandings of the Rams and Titans.

🏈 2026 NFL Cap Texture 🏈 @overthecap.bsky.social flipped the switch to 53 player rosters and I summarized their cap texture breakdowns. I like this viz because it shows how teams spread their money. The viz is sorted by cap space. For more details and full text see mrcaseb.com/posts/nfl_ca...

I wonder how this year's Dolphins stack up historically. It can't have happened very often that 60% of the cap is taken up by dead money, can it? #NFL

🏈 2026 NFL Cap Texture 🏈 @overthecap.bsky.social flipped the switch to 53 player rosters and I summarized their cap texture breakdowns. I like this viz because it shows how teams spread their money. The viz is sorted by cap space. For more details and full text see mrcaseb.com/posts/nfl_ca...

Nobody: Me: here are NFL preseason stats

Testing the boxscore site on rbsdm.com/stats/box_sc... with 2026 preseason play-by-play data. Looks good. So I think we are back for the next season!

@davisvaughan.bsky.social do you know if tidyverse/funs is a dead end? Seems like it’s not maintained anymore and you were the last active dev. One of my dplyr Feature requests has been moved to that repo and I wonder what happens with all the ideas.

🚀 Want to run lapply() in #parallel? Use y <- lapply(x, fcn) |> futurize() from the futurize package #rstats futurize.futurever.se

What's up, chat! Group chats are rolling out today in the new v1.124 update. This is our first feature built for communities, and there's more to come.

Based on all 272 spread lines provided by DKSports, I have computed implied team strengths of all teams (in points above average on neutral field) and plotted them against their average opponent strength (i.e. strength of schedule, adjusted for home field advantage).

It's R release season, which makes it the perfect time to revisit my article on how to perform R upgrades and restore your libraries. #rstats mrcaseb.com/posts/upgrad...

Final draft pick probabilities of the picks 1-10. Percentages are the vig removed probabilities according to DraftKings that a player will be picked at the corresponding position. Data as of now. Sorted by highest remaining probability per pick.

Today's update of market implied odd of draft picks 1-10. Percentages are the vig removed probabilities according to DraftKings that a player will be picked at the corresponding position. Data as of today and subject to change.

The #NFL draft comes closer so here is what the market thinks who will be drafted at picks 1-10. Percentages are the vig removed probabilities according to DraftKings that a player will be picked at the corresponding position. Data as of today and subject to change.

The #NFL draft comes closer so here is what the market thinks who will be drafted at picks 1-10. Percentages are the vig removed probabilities according to DraftKings that a player will be picked at the corresponding position. Data as of today and subject to change.

~~ nflverse data update ~~ 2025 participation data is now live thanks to @ftnfantasy.com and @realfrankbrank.bsky.social. Access with nflreadr nflreadr.nflverse.com/reference/lo... or with nflreadpy nflreadpy.nflverse.com/api/load_fun...

I have received several requests for nflfastR to add the number of “explosive plays” to the stats. Is there a standardized definition of an explosive run or pass? Something like 10+ rushing yards and 15+ passing yards? Please feel free to add your input here github.com/nflverse/nfl...

dplyr 1.2.0 is out now and we are SO excited! - `filter_out()` for dropping rows - `recode_values()`, `replace_values()`, and `replace_when()` that join `case_when()` as a complete family of recoding/replacing tools These are huge quality of life wins for #rstats! tidyverse.org/blog/2026/02...

-- Today's update of the 2026 head coach tracker -- It feels like we'll be mostly done by tomorrow. Data per AroundTheNFL and various other sources.

Today's update of the 2026 head coach tracker. 6 down, 4 to-go. News are slowing down until the candidates of the remaining playoff teams are allowed to conduct their next interviews. Data per AroundTheNFL and various other sources.

Has there been any news since last year about NFL teams using Bluesky? Or did we simply accept the ban?

Today's update of the 2026 head coach tracker. Data per AroundTheNFL and various other sources Please note that this is a snapshot of a rapidly changing landscape, and I only post once a day to avoid spam.

Today's update of the 2026 head coach tracker. No Bills yet, for obvious reasons. Data per AroundTheNFL and various other sources Please note that this is a snapshot of a rapidly changing landscape, and I only post once a day to avoid spam.

This year's #NFL divisional round feels like there are a lot of turnovers? That's correct! Counting in the 8 turnovers in the Texans @ Patriots game (so far!), there have been 17, which is tied for 3rd most since realignment! #HOUvsNE

Today's update of the 2026 head coach tracker. Harbaugh hasn't been officially announced yet, but I'll take the risk. Data per AroundTheNFL and various other sources Please note that this is a snapshot of a rapidly changing landscape, and I only post once a day to avoid spam

-- 2025 NFL 🏈 Divisional Round Geo-Rooting Map -- Geo-Rooting is the concept of rooting for the geographically closest team to the current location. This map shows closest team (stadium location) by county in contiguous U.S. Yes, you HAVE to root for your biggest rival. I didn't make the rules.

Today's update of the 2026 head coach tracker. No Steelers yet, for obvious reasons. Data per AroundTheNFL and various other sources (Please note that this is a snapshot of a rapidly changing landscape, and I only post once a day to avoid spam)

Today's update of the 2026 head coach interview tracker. Data per AroundTheNFL and @cbssports.bsky.social (Please note that this is a snapshot of a rapidly changing landscape, and I only post once a day to avoid spam)

Today's update of the 2026 head coach interview tracker. Data per AroundTheNFL and @cbssports.bsky.social (Please note that this is a snapshot of a rapidly changing landscape, and I only post once a day to avoid spam)

-- 2025 NFL 🏈 Playoff Geo-Rooting Map -- Geo-Rooting is the concept of rooting for the geographically closest team to the current location. This map shows closest team (stadium location) by county in contiguous U.S. Enjoy the playoffs!