Moritz Schauer

Moritz Schauer

@mschauer.bsky.social

Statistician, Associate Professor (Lektor) at University of Gothenburg and Chalmers; inference and conditional distributions for anything https://mschauer.github.io http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3310-7915 [ˈmoː/r/ɪts ˈʃaʊ̯ɐ]

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... that is not the best you can do. At least that is what I claimed as one of my "propositions" during the PhD defense, a quirky Dutch academic tradition.

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But the spider web itself is implemented using an ad hoc solver of Hooke's law - the solver iteratively moves each free node in the direction of its net force. That is why adding a radius visibly shifts the hub and deforms the frame rather than simply drawing a new straight segment.

There are some cinematics in there - the code that generates the impression of a thread moving in the wind is just a really nicely chose parametric curve...

Furstenberg gave a fascinating proof that extracts the infinitude of the primes from seemingly innocuous manipulations of clopen sets. Here is a retake: The σ-algebra 𝓕ₚ = σ(n ↦ n mod p) encodes exactly the information contained in knowing n mod p. That is natural, σ-algebras model information.

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Moritz Schauer@mschauer.bsky.social

Furstenberg gave a fascinating proof that extracts the infinitude of the primes from seemingly innocuous manipulations of clopen sets. Here is a retake: The σ-algebra 𝓕ₚ = σ(n ↦ n mod p) encodes exactly the information contained in knowing n mod p. That is natural, σ-algebras model information.

The σ-algebra viewpoint also gives a nice form of the Chinese remainder theorem: for pairwise coprime n₁, …, nₖ it holds σ(x mod n₁, …, x mod nₖ) = σ(x mod n₁⋯nₖ). Knowing the residues separately is exactly the same information as knowing the residue modulo the product.

Moritz Schauer@mschauer.bsky.social

Furstenberg gave a fascinating proof that extracts the infinitude of the primes from seemingly innocuous manipulations of clopen sets. Here is a retake: The σ-algebra 𝓕ₚ = σ(n ↦ n mod p) encodes exactly the information contained in knowing n mod p. That is natural, σ-algebras model information.

Furstenberg gave a fascinating proof that extracts the infinitude of the primes from seemingly innocuous manipulations of clopen sets. Here is a retake: The σ-algebra 𝓕ₚ = σ(n ↦ n mod p) encodes exactly the information contained in knowing n mod p. That is natural, σ-algebras model information.

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Since every integer except −1 and 1 has a prime divisor, ℤ ∖ {−1,1} = ⋃ₚ pℤ, so {−1,1} ∈ 𝓕. Each 𝓕ₚ contains the translations of its elements, hence so does 𝓕. So {−1+k,1+k} ∈ 𝓕 for every k ∈ ℤ. These sets are all distinct, so 𝓕 is infinite...

But each 𝓕ₚ is finite, and finitely many finite σ-algebras generate a finite σ-algebra. Hence 𝓕 cannot be generated by only finitely many 𝓕ₚ. Therefore P is infinite: There are infinitely many primes. ☐

Furstenberg gave a fascinating proof that extracts the infinitude of the primes from seemingly innocuous manipulations of clopen sets. Here is a retake: The σ-algebra 𝓕ₚ = σ(n ↦ n mod p) encodes exactly the information contained in knowing n mod p. That is natural, σ-algebras model information.

For example, 𝓕₂ = σ(2ℤ, 1 + 2ℤ) has four sets: ∅, ℤ, the even integers, and the odd integers. Now let P be the set of primes and combine all this information into 𝓕 = ⋁ₚ 𝓕ₚ (p ∈ P).

How many times does the Moon go around the Earth in a year? About 13 times relative to the stars. But Earth itself goes once around the Sun. So the roughly 12 lunar months in a year are really a 13 − 1 phenomenon — the same geometry as a circle rolling inside a larger circle.

Probability theory causes a certain mathematical inflation: random variables are functions, events are sets, and probabilities are countably additive set functions of total mass one defined on σ-algebras.

For that price, we get all of mathematics with randomness added. A bit like adjoining complex numbers to the reals for the price of losing the natural order. It’s funny to think how such things commute: think of complex random variables versus complex probabilities.

Moritz Schauer reposted

Replying to @rg9119.bsky.social

Yes, that's the contrast of interest The relevant observations are imo 1. MH is a causal inference problem first and a probability problem second, and 2. the association usually called collider bias is information you can make use of for decision rather than just being, as it normally is, a problem

Moritz Schauer reposted

wikipedia turns 25 today! the last unenshittified major website! backbone of online info! triumph of humanity! powered by urge of unpaid randos to correct each other! somehow mostly reliable! "good thing wikipedia works in practice, because it sure doesn't work in theory" - old wiki adage

Causal inference is often hidden in plain sight. In a randomized clinical trial, the setup is such that interventional and conditional distributions coincide. That is E(X | do(T = t)) = E(X | T = t).

In classical approaches, correctness of causal claims is argued at the meta level, by appealing to design or understanding. In the do-calculus, that burden is shifted into a mathematical formalism.

Moritz Schauer reposted

It’s giving late-game vibes of Sid Meier’s Civilization, where the player is bored and just trying to see what happens if they declare some wars before they abandon the game.