Nick πŸ‹

Nick πŸ‹

@njmt.bsky.social

26 | Brit/Spaniard living in Madrid | Public policy enthusiast with occasional takes on U.S. politics

452 followers518 following2.4K posts

YouGov strategy meeting Boss: "Ok team, the midterms are one week away, we need our next poll to include questions which will inform the public of key trends to expect going into Election Day." Some guy with his chin between his fingers: "What's the dumbest 2028 horserace scenario imaginable?"

Political Poll Bot@pollresults.org

National President Oct 10 - 14, 2026 JD Vance (R) 34% (+0.0%) Mark Cuban (D) 34% Don't know 26% Stephen A. Smith (I) 6% YouGov (B) 1407 A View Poll

Let's GOOO

Alix Kroeger@alixkroeger.bsky.social

BELGRADE, Serbia (AP) β€” Serbia’s strongman leader Aleksandar Vucic has conceded defeat to a student-led movement in a seismic political shift.

One of my most uncomfortable linguistic realisations is that the Cyrillic script would be perfect for the Irish language, practically speaking.

Man it's an internal but I really want to believe it

Political Poll Bot@pollresults.org

South Carolina US Senate Oct 15 - 21, 2026 Annie Andrews (D) 45% (+1.0%) Darline Graham (R) 44% Don't know/Someone else 10% Impact Research (B/C) 800 LV Sponsor: Fresh Start SC PAC (D) View Poll

I would love as much as anybody else for districts like this to flip, but let's not freak out over individual polls with sample sizes of 345, from low quality pollsters that are clearly herding.

Political Poll Bot@pollresults.org

Arizona House (Second Congressional District) Oct 12 - 14, 2026 Jonathan Nez (D) 50% (+2.0%) Eli Crane (R) 48% Emerson College (A) 345 LV Sponsor: Poll Vault View Poll

Today on extremely dumb YouTube thumbnails: an image of a green Antarctic, with the green areas including what are now the Ross, Ronne and Amery ice shelves.

Treat internals with skepticism above all else but this district is high up on upset watch. It's characteristic for being not that red, but has a Republican incumbent who is a serial overperformer.

Political Poll Bot@pollresults.org

Ohio House (Tenth Congressional District) Oct 12 - 13, 2026 Kristina Knickerbocker (D) 47% (+3.0%) Mike Turner (R) 44% Thomas McMasters (L) 4% DCCC Targeting Team 535 LV Partisan pollster (D) View Poll

Every day we seem to get closer to a House map that looks like this.

Alex O. Diaz@alexodiaz.bsky.social

David Flippo, the Republican Candidate for NV-02 has been caught reallocating a 3.5k donation to his campaign under a dead woman's name. www.wsj.com/politics/ele...

Politely asking KLB to get her act together

Political Poll Bot@pollresults.org

Georgia Governor Oct 15 - 17, 2026 Rick Jackson (R) 49% (+1.5%) Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) 47.5% Don't know 2.8% Someone else 0.7% Quantus Insights (B/C) 755 LV View Poll

Nick πŸ‹ reposted

The Super AGI: I'm sorry. I disassembled the entire human race molecule by molecule to make paperclips. That's on me. Me: what are you talking about, that's not true Super: you're right. That was a failure of alignment and I'm really sorry Me: you haven't made any paper clips at all have you

I know it's a Republican internal and everything but Bankhead all the way down at 12 percent is progress. I legitimately think she could get as low as five or six.

Political Poll Bot@pollresults.org

Montana US Senate Oct 7 - 12, 2026 Kurt Alme (R) 44% (+15.0%) Seth Bodnar (I) 29% Alani Bankhead (D) 12% Don't know 10% Kyle Austin (L) 3% None 2% Peak Insights 500 LV Partisan pollster (R) View Poll

One theory that I have which is only partly substantiated is that tactical voting tends to go largely undetected by polling. I think of a race like Kansas governor in 2018, where Greg Orman was polling around the ten percent mark, but ended up getting about six.

For the love of man, push your undecideds. This is exhausting.

Political Poll Bot@pollresults.org

National House Oct 8 - 12, 2026 Generic Democrat (D) 47% (+9.0%) Generic Republican (R) 38% Don't know 15% AP-NORC 925 RV View Poll

I guess we should have known that Ukraine's success depending on Elon Musk's infrastructure probably wasn't the most promising sign.

WarTranslated (Dmitri)@wartranslated.bsky.social

Presidential advisor Serhii "Flash" Beskrestnov said SpaceX introduced speed limits on Starlink terminals for Ukraine overnight without warning, disrupting several missions.