Breathin' Orange Fire

Breathin' Orange Fire

@orangefire.bsky.social

Astros Fan. Analytics Guy. Read my Substack: OrangeFire.Substack.com "Your calm, rational, logical takes have no place in this world, Brian."

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I write a Substack on the Astros that sketches out my thoughts and analysis in greater detail than social media allows. I'd ask each of you to consider subscribing to the Substack--it is and always will be free. orangefire.substack.com

orangefire.substack.comOrange Fire | Orange Fire (Brian Arbour IRL) | SubstackAnalysis and opinion on the Houston Astros. Click to read Orange Fire, by Orange Fire (Brian Arbour IRL), a Substack publication with hundreds of subscribers.

I'll play political scientist (my day job) on here for a bit. At this point we can say that the 2026 midterms are going to be a win for the Democrats. The worst case for the Democrats at this point is that they take the majority in the House easily and gain a handful of Senate seats.

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I'll play political scientist (my day job) on here for a bit. At this point we can say that the 2026 midterms are going to be a win for the Democrats. The worst case for the Democrats at this point is that they take the majority in the House easily and gain a handful of Senate seats.

If you're a Democrat, you might be underwhelmed if they don't win a huge number of House seats and take the Senate majority. That's understandable...the expectations have increased all year for the Ds.

But it's remarkable we're even talking about a Dem Senate majority considering they need to win a bunch of really red states to achieve it (some combo of TX, IA, AK, and OH). 8 to 12 months ago, that seemed impossible, Today, it's not.

An #Astros fun fact

Matt Trueblood@matrueblood.bsky.social

Reminder: Jackson Chourio and William Contreras are trying to become the first players since Alex Bregman and Luke Gregerson to win the WBC and the World Series in the same year. brewerfanatic.com/news-rumors/...

1. The President of my College was a higher up in the Justice Department during the Obama Administration.

Sky Marchini@sky.skymarchini.net

To flip some discourse script for a bit: what’s y’all’s Obama number (ie degrees of separation with the former president)? Mine is 3

Some have assumed that nothing will happen with transactions until after the lockout ends. That was not what happened in 2021-22 (e.g. Verlander signed with the Astros in late November), and it's not what is expected to happen this year. www.nytimes.com/athletic/771...

nytimes.comMLB’s lockout is coming. Before it arrives, baseball insiders expect a free-agent frenzyMLB has a December 1 deadline. That may mean that free agents and teams go through a November scramble.

A reminder that Jim Crane thinks his GM should be an important functionary rather than the head of the baseball operations department. This move undercut a man they haven't even hired yet.

Chandler Rome@chandlerrome.bsky.social

The Astros are hiring Clayton Thompson as an assistant director of player development, source tells @theathletic.com. Thompson, a former Driveline employee, worked in the Dodgers organization for the past three years, most recently as their coordinator of integrated performance.

Three named candidates in the report from Chandler Rome: Matt Kleine (MIL), Josh Barfield (CWS), Randy Flores (STL). These seem candidates with conventional qualifications, though I think few people can really rank GM candidates by quality. www.nytimes.com/athletic/770...

nytimes.comAstros could name new general manager before end of World Series: Sources (Gift Article)Matt Kleine, Josh Barfield, Scott Sharp and Randy Flores are among the candidates who are in the running to replace Dana Brown.

Breathin' Orange Fire reposted

There's already an incessant narrative about this Brewers/Rays World Series being a meeting of "underdogs" despite having their leagues' best records this year and sustained regular season success over the last decade. A good reminder that a lockout isn't about parity - it's just wage suppression.

Razzball@razzball.bsky.social

Rays/Brewers World Series followed by a lockout talking about how small market teams can’t compete will drive me so crazy I’m making myself crazy thinking about it now

I guess Joe getting an interview with the Mariners reminded the asleep-at-the-switch team atop Astros baseball operations (Crane & Bagwell) that they had never gotten around to firing Espada.

Chandler Rome@chandlerrome.bsky.social

The Astros have finished their housecleaning and parted ways with manager Joe Espada - www.nytimes.com/athletic/667...

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The biggest issue for the Astros is that the prospect pipeline has dried up. The team lacks young stars, which are the lifeblood of good teams. They have not developed one since 2023 at this point.

The hope is that a new GM will fix scouting, drafting, and player development, which have atrophied over this decade. The reality is that it is unclear to me that Jim Crane thinks that's the actual issue.

I guess Joe getting an interview with the Mariners reminded the asleep-at-the-switch team atop Astros baseball operations (Crane & Bagwell) that they had never gotten around to firing Espada.

Chandler Rome@chandlerrome.bsky.social

The Astros have finished their housecleaning and parted ways with manager Joe Espada - www.nytimes.com/athletic/667...

My more serious take is that I'm pretty agnostic on whether Espada should stay or go. The issues with this franchise are not how the major league performed but the quality of that major league team. The big issues are at the GM/POBO level.

A good reminder...we've had no reporting since the end of the season on the Astros GM search. Heck, we haven't even heard what they're going to do with Joe Espada.

Ken Rosenthal@ken-rosenthal.bsky.social

Phillies’ Sam Fuld, Cubs’ Jared Banner among top candidates to take over A’s. Story with @PJ_Mooney, unlocked and free to read. www.nytimes.com/athletic/766...

Republicans Super PAcs are spending a lot of money, but it's unlear they are spending that money in a useful way. @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social

Awful Announcing@awfulannouncing.bsky.social

Texas PAC bought national ad time during Fox's early NFL window, putting Ken Paxton ads in front of Eagles, Packers and Bears fans awfulannouncing.com/politics/why...

Meyers is as good as gone from this list. Sousa and Trammell are also candidates to be non-tendered, but their low salaries mean there is little financial benefit to doing so.

Chandler Rome@chandlerrome.bsky.social

Happy @mlbtraderumors.bsky.social arbitration projection day to you and yours. It was a good year for Peter Lambert. It will be a more difficult winter for whoever is running the Astros’ baseball operations department

I don't know how many innings Lambert can go, but in the ideal, it's him, Abreu, and Hader the rest of the way. I assume Lambert will start the 6th at this point. If he can get through that inning, it makes it easier to go to Abreu next.

This team has lacked pitching depth all season and it showed today. Earned runs given up by a bunch of guys you'd rather not pitch and you hop can make it through without too much damage. Didn't happen today.

I got anxious hoping they'd get to the playoffs because it would offer something positive in an otherwise dreary season. Now that we're here, the playoffs are all langniappe. Fuck it, we ball.

I assume the goal here is a time through the order. But can go with AJB as long as he is effective. He's not limited. Puts more pressure in the 6th and 7th inning when Blubaugh usually pitches.

Chandler Rome@chandlerrome.bsky.social

The Astros are starting AJ Blubaugh in Game 1 tomorrow against the White Sox, sources tell @theathletic.com

Proposition: the Astros would be better off starting Nick Allen at 2B; Altuve at DH; Yordan in LF at Daiken Park. That improves defense at 2B, and over the course of the season, Allen outhit our LF options (Trammell; Wade, etc.).

Much like Sunday, the plan here is to work backwards. Expect 4 innings from Blubaugh, Abreu, and Hader. The question becomes how can they piece it together through the first 5 innings. Like Sunday, it would really help if they scored 9 runs.

Chandler Rome@chandlerrome.bsky.social

The Astros will run a bullpen game in Game 1, Joe Espada said. He did not name a starter.