Peter Hannam

theguardian.comUpturn or uncertainty: decoding Australia’s 2024 economy and what it means for you next yearDespite jobs growing and interest rates tipped to drop, a variety of factors mean the economy could be tested soon

Fresh dawn…

(Last from me): www.theguardian.com/business/202...

Some news from me: I’ll be leaving my wonderful colleagues at Guardian Australia to take up a role at the Climate Change Authority in the new year.

(Photo credit: Peter Cant)

Looks like Christmas will be hot in Melbourne...and the Boxing Day Test Match will get off to a scorcher: (Via BoM)

@australia.theguardian.com

Mostly dry in southern Australia from now until Boxing Day... (Via BoM)

Peter Hannam reposted

Guardian Australia

18 Dec 2024

Replying to @australia.theguardian.com

ANALYSIS: Five things #Myefo tells us about the state of the Australian economy from @phannam.bsky.social

theguardian.comFive things Myefo tells us about the state of the Australian economyThe economy’s rebound won’t be as strong as anticipated and more government rebates seem to be pencilled for the coming year

18 Dec 2024

(New from me): www.theguardian.com/business/202...

17 Dec 2024

Year-end Westpac-ACCI's industry survey finds sentiment finely balanced among manufacturers who were optimistic or pessimistic to round out 2024. The 'Expected' outlook, though, picked up further and is now at its highest since September 2022.

Manufacturers' expectations for profits, too, are bouncing back, with a net 19% of firms anticipating an increase over the coming year. That's back in line with the long-run average in a data set going back 36 years.

17 Dec 2024

Westpac/Melbourne Institute, though, finds some pullback in consumer sentiment to end 2024. Still, the rebound of late has been clear, with "current conditions" well up on last year, as is "time to buy" and expectations for family finances in a year's time.

The general business outlook for six months' time continues to rise too, with the first net-positive reading since the September quarter of 2022.

theguardian.comThe eastern Australian waterbird survey is a white-knuckle flight of avian accountingOne of the world’s largest bird counts is ‘hours of terror separated by minutes of boredom’

These surveys are amazing - as I found out three years ago: www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Peter Hannam@phannam.bsky.social

www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...

theguardian.com‘Increasingly worried’: more than a quarter of a million waterbirds disappear from eastern AustraliaOne of the world’s longest continuous bird counts has dashed the ‘wistful optimism’ of scientists hoping for a La Niña-driven recovery

www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...

Peter Hannam reposted

Sheila Foster

@sheilarose.bsky.social

www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...

Unfortunately, federalism works both ways. Cities and states can do a lot to rectify and fill in for federal government missteps and neglect of vulnerable populations. However, the opposite is also true. Cities can be preempted by their states (and states by federal government), tho not always.

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Before the heat…

theguardian.comCoalition’s nuclear plan will hit Earth with 1.7bn extra tonnes of CO2 before 2050, experts warnPeter Dutton’s path ‘would be an absolute failure’ in decarbonising the electricity sector and meeting Australia’s emission targets, analyst says

Peter Hannam reposted

KetAnthropic JoshAI

@ketanjoshi.co

The Coalition's climate policy plan would result in a cool extra gigatonne of GHGs out to 2050, from Australia's power sector alone. Great analysis by @dylanjmcconnell.bsky.social www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...

Parts of western Melbourne topping 43.3C today, and tomorrow it'll be Sydney's turn to bake. Parts of western Sydney may reach 42C. (Via BoM)

A host of inland regions are competing to be the hottest place in Australia - and probably the planet - today. Presently, this is the hottest station (according to BoM):

theguardian.comJim Chalmers reveals two appointments to Reserve Bank’s new monetary policy boardRenée Fry-McKibbin and Marnie Baker will sit on the RBA’s new board, which follows the government’s reform of the central bank

(New from me): Jim Chalmers reveals two appointments to Reserve Bank’s new monetary policy board www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...

Peter Hannam reposted

Dylan McConnell

@dylanjmcconnell.bsky.social

14 Dec 2024

Choosing the "progressive change" scenario - with lower economic growth, and significant decline in large industrial loads - as your preferred version of the future is really quite a choice from the coalition...

theguardian.comEnergy generators poke holes in Dutton’s nuclear plan as questions over costings pile up‘No one really has the foggiest idea of what it will cost to develop nuclear in Australia,’ one expert says

13 Dec 2024

(New from me): www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...

The coming heatwave for eastern Australia will cover about half the nation. This is the Saturday-Monday chart. (Via BoM)

Forecast heat in Sydney's west is one of the reasons for the expected tight power conditions early next week in NSW. (Via BoM.)

12 Dec 2024

Meanwhile, Melbourne's forecast heat for early next week has eased back slightly, but 39C-41C expected across parts of the Victorian capital next Monday. (Via BoM)

theguardian.comFall in Australia’s unemployment rate sends dollar higher and stocks down, dimming hopes of interest rate cutABS reveals robust market as unemployment rate drops from 4.1% to 3.9%, its lowest since March

12 Dec 2024

(New from me:) Yet more signs of a surprisingly strong labour market: www.theguardian.com/business/202...

The coming heatwave for eastern Australia will cover about half the nation. This is the Saturday-Monday chart. (Via BoM)

And with the prolonged heat will come some strains on the power grid. AEMO has a 'lack of reserve' level 3 alert for possible interrupted supply in NSW (unless the market responds, which it likely will) for periods on Monday afternoon and evening. (And LOR2s forecast for other periods.)

Victoria, too, has a lack of reserve (level 2) forecast issued for Monday, which means that state probably won't have much spare power to export to NSW or elsewhere. Parts of Melbourne are predicted to hit 42C on that day, which explains why power supplies might be tight. (Via AEMO.)

The coming heatwave for eastern Australia will cover about half the nation. This is the Saturday-Monday chart. (Via BoM)

The heatwave shift slightly to the north for Sunday-Tuesday, taking in Sydney and Brisbane. (Via BoM)

Peter Hannam reposted

The Guardian

@theguardian.com

theguardian.comHumpback whale makes record journey of more than 13,000km from South America to AfricaResearch done with the help of citizen science shows male humpback completed almost twice the typical migration distance * Get our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcast A humpback whale has journeyed more than 13,000km from South…

Humpback whale makes record journey of more than 13,000km from South America to Africa

RBA’s Andrew Hauser giving a bit of a history lesson…

theguardian.comFrom X to Bluesky: why are people fleeing Elon Musk’s ‘digital town square’?Musk’s platform has lost 2.7 million active US users in two months, while its rival has gained 2.5 million

(Should post this on X): www.theguardian.com/media/2024/d...

From this week, the Bureau of Meteorology stopped publishing their "climate drivers" page, although values for the Nino 3.4 region used for monitoring are still available. Chances of a standard La Nina continue to fade...

The relatively dry conditions ease back a bit for the 22 Dec - 4 Jan period that takes in Christmas and the New Year - unless you're in Victoria or parts of northern NSW/ southern Queensland.

The February-April period, which bridges the end of summer and most of autumn, looks like having odds favouring relatively wet conditions for most of the country. Might be welcomed by fire agencies, farmers and energy authorities if it turns out that way. (Via BoM)

Meanwhile, in the Indian Ocean, the negative phase of that basin's dipole is also ending. The phase typically lifts the odds for rainfall over much of Australia. (Via BoM)

BoM would rather have the public pay heed to their longer term forecasts (rather than the now-defunct "climate drivers"). hey tell us that the 2nd half of December 15-28/12 looks like being relatively dry across most of the east (and wetter than usual over the north-west, via a tropical low).

The recent 30-day trend is clearly away from La Nina-like conditions (Via Queensland Govt.)

Most of eastern Australia will bake in a heatwave from the weekend. (Via BoM)

theguardian.comMichele Bullock’s ‘wild ride’ at the RBA could spell trouble for Labor if interest rate cuts aren’t on the wayGrowth has slowed, but employment is up – could the new year bring mortgage repayment relief?

(New from me): how ‘wild’ in 2024 may look mild before too long… www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...

theguardian.comNo Christmas gift for Australian borrowers as RBA leaves interest rates on holdReserve Bank leaves cash rate at 4.35% for ninth consecutive meeting

February rate cut looks a bit more likely…

Peter Hannam@phannam.bsky.social

(New from me): No Christmas gift for Australian borrowers as RBA leaves interest rates on hold - but hopes for a cut improve www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...

theguardian.comNo Christmas gift for Australian borrowers as RBA leaves interest rates on holdReserve Bank leaves cash rate at 4.35% for ninth consecutive meeting

(New from me): No Christmas gift for Australian borrowers as RBA leaves interest rates on hold - but hopes for a cut improve www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...

As we await the RBA's rates verdict (likely keeping the cash rate at 4.35% for a 9th meeting in a row), it's interesting inflation expectations have lately receded a lot. ANZ/Roy Morgan's weekly survey has noted a 0.5ppt drop in the past fortnight, with the gauge near its lowest since Aug 2021.

theguardian.comWhy Murdoch’s succession case could be major blow to his rightwing legacyCourt ruling could mean that more liberal Murdochs may have say in content from world’s most powerful conservative media empire

Why Murdoch’s succession case could be major blow to his rightwing legacy www.theguardian.com/media/2024/d...

Annoying words used by the Canberra press gallery and almost nobody else, ever: "swingeing"...