Tim Supinie

Tim Supinie

@plustssn.autumnsky.us

Hydrometeor connoisseur πŸ’§β„οΈπŸŒͺ️ / Electron herder πŸ’» / Rhythmic airbender 🎸🎢 / Amateur edible chemist 🍞🍳 / @climbingfox86.autumnsky.us's worse half πŸ‘« / OU SoM alum πŸ‘¨β€πŸŽ“ / 🚫🧊

1K followers292 following988 posts

The current REFS page uses a 20-color map for a lot of the fields, but that color map was made for light backgrounds. I've tweaked it to work on dark backgrounds. The the 4th (bronze color) segment was tricky. I had to tweak it until, when I showed the wife, she didn't say, "that looks like poop."

Tim Supinie reposted

🚨 New PolarWx Model Viewer is live 🚨 It's been a while since my PolarWx model page got an upgrade - so today I'm releasing a new model viewer with a fully interactive and customizable layout, many more plots & models, and many new features. polarwx.com/models/

Tim Supinie reposted

00Z Flagstaff sounding…10 g/kg mean mixing ratio in the desert, clockwise turning hodograph in the low-levels yielding 217 m^2/s^2 ESRH, over 800 J/Kg of MLCAPE, and PWAT of 0.87” which shatters the 00Z max for this day of 0.81 (record daily max is 0.92”).

Tim Supinie reposted

EverythingWeather V1.8 is live on iOS, Android, and the web! Tons of updates across the board, including brand new custom precip notifications (experimental) that include PROB Severe info (if relevant), massive performance improvements on Android, some model data, and much more. everythingwx.com

I released v1.1 of the REFS page this morning. Here's the change log, which includes all the stuff in the quoted thread.

Tim Supinie@plustssn.autumnsky.us

Here's an autumnplot-gl bug I hadn't found. A quirk of floating point numbers is that -0 is distinct from 0. Turns out, if you pass u=-0 to the autumnplot-gl barbs, MacOS incorrectly rotates the barb 180Β°. Or, it did until I fixed the dev branch just now. Still an "Easter egg" in the REFS page.

Tim Supinie reposted

Having a little fun on my last day off with a little side project. The simulation ran on my GPU and is output every time step (0.5s), 25m grid spacing.

Here's an autumnplot-gl bug I hadn't found. A quirk of floating point numbers is that -0 is distinct from 0. Turns out, if you pass u=-0 to the autumnplot-gl barbs, MacOS incorrectly rotates the barb 180Β°. Or, it did until I fixed the dev branch just now. Still an "Easter egg" in the REFS page.

Tim Supinie@plustssn.autumnsky.us

I've made a few tweaks and bug fixes in the last week, and SPC REFS Viewer v1.0 is live! www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/refs/v...

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An aside: apparently, RH from the REFS is just difficult to compress. Despite using float16s and degrading the precision to 0.1%, min/mean/max RH are the largest fields that don't have all the members.

After some tweaks to the precision for various fields, I managed to get the file sizes down quite a bit. Over 4.5 GB/run previously to just above 3 GB/run now. That's a nice savings for the data download, but it's also great for long-term storage, since these add up quickly.

This morning's 12Z OUN sounding has a higher precipitable water than any other sounding taken outside the June 26-September 23 period. Hence the swath of very heavy rainfall in western OK overnight.

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The 00Z REFS has a lot of water around here over the next 48-ish hours. PM mean QPF has a broad swath of 4+" through central OK. Given the extremely moist air mass (2+" precipitable water, among the highest ever observed in October) and potential for training storms, someone is gonna get wet.

A much cooler and drier air mass moves in for Friday. Given cold advection, waning sun angle, and perhaps some residual cloud cover, temperatures may struggle to rise much above 60ΒΊF on Friday.

Tim Supinie reposted

Here's an autumnplot-gl bug I hadn't found. A quirk of floating point numbers is that -0 is distinct from 0. Turns out, if you pass u=-0 to the autumnplot-gl barbs, MacOS incorrectly rotates the barb 180Β°. Or, it did until I fixed the dev branch just now. Still an "Easter egg" in the REFS page.

Tim Supinie@plustssn.autumnsky.us

I've made a few tweaks and bug fixes in the last week, and SPC REFS Viewer v1.0 is live! www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/refs/v...

Also on the subject of bugs, I realized earlier this week that I accidentally dropped the encoding on some of the fields in the zarr stores backing the page. The encoding specifies the quantization, so those variables are full-precision in the zarr stores, meaning they don't compress as well.

Tim Supinie reposted

Sometimes you just have to draw a line in the sand and say something is ready. I've spent the last month or so not only adding level II site functionality to Heimdall, but what I consider to be genuinely novel functionality and interactivity. It's live for you to try at heimdall.stormscale.io

... .... .......

Justin Hendrix@justinhendrix.bsky.social

United States President Donald Trump issues executive order instructing federal government agencies to "use the terms 'Super Intelligence' and 'SI' in place of 'Artificial Intelligence' and 'AI' and will not acknowledge the usage of 'Artificial Intelligence' and 'AI' in any applicable setting."

Looking forward to Norman's 0.09" of rain this week. Which, if that absolutely prodigious amount fell in one day, would be the most rain in a single day since August 7.

A significant amount of rain is on the way for the central U.S., with 3-5+ inches expected for many areas currently experiencing drought. While it'll be beneficial to an extent, this much rain falling all at once on arid ground is a recipe for flooding.

If the truly biblical amount of 0.11" fell on the Washington Mesonet site, it would be the most rain for that site in a single day since July 12.

Big REFS Transition Project 2 (SPC REFS viewer v1) is functionally complete. I sent a version around to SPC forecasters for a final pass at bugs this afternoon (though I realized I had a few more 5-minute tweaks I wanted to make when grabbing these screenshots).

With the HREF retirement on October 14, @brettjrob.bsky.social's SPC HREF viewer will also be retired from real-time updates. It'll still be available in archive mode. Brett's viewer is amazing and contributed so much to SPC operations. I definitely stole some ideas from it when designing mine.

I hope to have REFS viewer v1 out to the public late next week. (Though it'll depend on what bugs are still lurking.) There are still a few loose ends and missing fields I'd like to get in before we get too deep into winter, so there'll be v1.1 in the hopefully not-too-distant future.

Tim Supinie reposted

Since 1988 when the NHC took responsibility for the eastern North Pacific, 44 hurricanes have intensified by 60+ kt in 24 hours (double the 30kt/24h threshold for RI). However, Hurricane Polo is in rare territory at +85 kt in 24 h. Only Linda (1997), Otis (2023), and Patricia (2015) outpaced this.

πŸ‘€πŸ‘€πŸ‘€πŸ‘€ (I mean, this is still basically average for the time of year, but man, it's gonna feel good after 2 months of 100 ΒΊF almost every day.)

Tim Supinie reposted

A massive upgrade to almost all of our Latin American tornado data is now available on the site! We're aware of some additional data still for South America, but as of now we've included as much publicly available information as we could.

Tornado Archive@tornadoarchive.com

Some massive and much needed updates to certain international tornado datasets coming soon -- stay tuned

Text I sent to the wife on August 27. Okay, it was three weeks, but close enough.

Michael Lowry@michaelrlowry.bsky.social

The National Weather Service is proceeding with renaming Lake Ontario to Lake America in all forecast products and maps. These sort of changes require extensive coding time for NOAA and NWS personnel to implement across so many different products that regularly reference them.

The subtropical ridge remaining over Oklahoma well into September, combined with the antecedent very dry soil conditions, led to yesterday's 106ΒΊF reading at OKC. My guess is the frequency of this kind of persistent September heat will increase as the climate warms.

Kelton has a lot of good thoughts, and I'll add my own. A lot of problems (though absolutely not all the problems) that people have with generative AI are actually problems that people have with 1) Greedy capitalists 2) People who don't give a shit. (There's some overlap there, for sure.)

Kelton Halbert@stormscale.io

I’ve been trying to formulate opinions about this for a while. I still don’t know how to communicate what I am experiencing, thinking, & feeling. Lot’s of nuance. The truth is LLM coding tools are too efficient & effective to be ignored anymore. Yes they’re flawed, but so is human intelligence.

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I've tried running some open-weight models myself, but my hardware sucks for that kind of task. These models need big amounts of data loaded into RAM at once, and my 2021 laptop wasn't built for 2026 LLMs. Now I understand why RAM is so expensive these days.

It sucks that these tools, which are genuinely cool and potentially very useful, are tainted by being built off large-scale content theft with a huge environmental impact. Not to mention having been created by companies whose employees (apparently genuinely) believe AI will kill us all (somehow).

Kelton has a lot of good thoughts, and I'll add my own. A lot of problems (though absolutely not all the problems) that people have with generative AI are actually problems that people have with 1) Greedy capitalists 2) People who don't give a shit. (There's some overlap there, for sure.)

Kelton Halbert@stormscale.io

I’ve been trying to formulate opinions about this for a while. I still don’t know how to communicate what I am experiencing, thinking, & feeling. Lot’s of nuance. The truth is LLM coding tools are too efficient & effective to be ignored anymore. Yes they’re flawed, but so is human intelligence.

In fact, my problems with greedy capitalists (and the environmental impact) are why I haven't dabbled as much as I'd like in AI coding. The only language for approval/disapproval these companies know is cash, so I've avoided paying them my own cash. (No judgement if you pay for Claude, etc.)