Antonino Polizzi

@nuffieldlibrary.bsky.social

Just out! 📢 "Why is life expectancy in England & Wales falling behind?" We used a decomposition approach to understand why life expectancy improvements in E&W lagged behind other European countries between 2011 and 2019. 📉 The findings might surprise you. 🔍📄 doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2026.2682462 1/N

Antonino Polizzi reposted

Nuffield College Library

Interpreting the lifetime risk of maternal near miss www.thelancet.com/journals/lan... Correspondence in @lancetgh.bsky.social by @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social Non-Stipendiary Research Fellow Ursula Gazeley, Alumnus @polizzan.bsky.social & Associate Member José Manuel Aburto et al.

thelancet.comInterpreting the lifetime risk of maternal near missMaternal near miss (MNM) events, during pregnancy, childbirth, and the postpartum period, are life-threatening complications in which a woman almost dies but survives.1 WHO identifies MNM cases based…

Antonino Polizzi reposted

Rebecca Sear

@rebeccasear.bsky.social

8 Sept

Period measures of fertility, like TFR, are less stable than cohort measures and are currently overstating fertility decline. New paper out on The Long-Term Trends in Cohort Fertility: Global, Regional and National Estimates and Projections for Cohorts Born in 1935–2055 doi.org/10.1111/padr...

Antonino Polizzi reposted

Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR)

@mpidr.bsky.social

8 Sept

🛫🛄MPIDR on Tour: We are happy to join the Annual Conference of the British Society for Population Studies at the University of Kent from today until Thursday. Our colleagues are looking forward to presenting and discussing their research. Jose Andrade Ana Cris GUV Elena Pojman #BSPS2026

Antonino Polizzi reposted

Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Oxford University

@oxforddemsci.bsky.social

18 Aug

Why is life expectancy in England & Wales falling behind? New research by @polizzan.bsky.social @andreatilstra.bsky.social @luyinz.bsky.social and @drjenndowd.bsky.social traces this to weaker progress across several ages and causes of death. Read more: www.demography.ox.ac.uk/news/why-lif...

demography.ox.ac.ukWhy is life expectancy in England & Wales falling behind?Between 2011 and 2019, England & Wales saw slower life expectancy gains than other European countries, slippingdown in international rankings. New LCDS research explores what was going on underneath t...

Antonino Polizzi reposted

Demography - the flagship journal of PAA

@readdemography.bsky.social

14 Aug

“MSE Workflow for Mortality Analysis”: @thegargiulian.bsky.social presents a workflow for “estimating conflict mortality using multiple heterogeneous & statistically biased lists of victims” & applies it to the 1985-2018 conflict in Colombia. @psglshtm.bsky.social read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

Antonino Polizzi reposted

Nuffield College Library

@nuffieldlibrary.bsky.social

29 July

Why is life expectancy in England & Wales falling behind? A cause-of-death decomposition approach doi.org/10.1080/0032...

Antonino Polizzi reposted

Jenn Dowd

@drjenndowd.bsky.social

A pleasure to work with the brilliant @polizzan.bsky.social @andreatilstra.bsky.social & @luyinz.bsky.social on this paper! #demography #mortality #episky

Antonino Polizzi@polizzan.bsky.social

tl;dr: Between 2011 and 2019, life expectancy in England & Wales fell behind European peers. Slower improvements at younger and middle ages for cardiometabolic and external causes of death contributed the most to diverging life expectancy trends. 6/N

doi.orgWhy is life expectancy in England & Wales falling behind? A cause-of-death decomposition approachLife expectancy in England & Wales has diverged from that of its high-income peers since 2011, raising concerns that the country may become an international laggard like the United States (US). Usi...

We'd like to thank @oxforddemsci.bsky.social + @sociologyoxford.bsky.social + @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social + @imprs-phds.bsky.social for their support! Read the full paper in Population Studies @bspsuk.bsky.social doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2026.2682462 7/N

Key findings by age: Mortality in ages 15–44 stagnated in E&W but improved elsewhere – Mortality in ages 45–64 and 65+ improved less in E&W. All trends contributed to E&W’s smaller life expectancy improvement in 2011–19 (negative bars). 4/N

We compared England & Wales to 20 countries. The decomposition patterns were strikingly similar and point to the same conclusion: mortality trends in E&W were a clear outlier in Europe. Next step? More work on the micro-/macro-level drivers behind E&W’s lagging life expectancy internationally. 5/N

In 2011, England & Wales had better life expectancy than many European countries. By 2019, those advantages shrank or flipped (red arrows going from above towards / below zero). Where E&W already ranked worse, gaps widened (red arrows starting below zero). Bottom line: E&W ranked worse in 2019. 2/N

Key findings for causes of death: Cardiometabolic & cancer mortality improved less in England & Wales – Dementia mortality worsened more – External mortality worsened in E&W but improved elsewhere. All trends contributed to E&W’s smaller life expectancy improvement in 2011–19 (negative bars). 3/N

11 June

Definitely worth a read! 👇 It was great to be part of this amazing team during my PhD. 🤓

European Research Council (ERC)@erc.europa.eu

Year after year, life expectancy rose. Until it didn’t ⏳ ERC grantee Jennifer Dowd @ox.ac.uk investigates the social, economic, and biological forces shaping mortality trends today. 🔗 Read the full story here: buff.ly/BH8l63N #LifeExpectancy #PopulationHealth #FrontierResearch

9 June

Update: I finally had my official graduation ceremony and didn't want this beautiful photo with my wonderful friends @thegargiulian.bsky.social and @andreatilstra.bsky.social go unnoticed. 👩‍👩‍👦 Thanks to our photographer @sanderwagner.bsky.social! 📸

Antonino Polizzi@polizzan.bsky.social

Feeling bittersweet as I read this wonderful thread and reflect on my time at @oxforddemsci.bsky.social, @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social, + @sociologyoxford.bsky.social coming to a close. Immensely grateful to my supervisors, assessors, colleagues, + friends for making this journey so meaningful. 👨‍🎓📜

formaldemography.github.ioWelcome

22 Apr

Join us for our meeting of the Formal Demography Working Group tomorrow! 👇

Monica Alexander@monjalexander.bsky.social

The Formal Demography Working Group is meeting tomorrow, April 23, at 11am ET (8am PT, 5pm CET)! Nik van der Wagt (UC Berkeley) will present work on "Population Momentum from Replacement Migration." Sign up for Zoom Link! formaldemography.github.io/working_group/

Antonino Polizzi reposted

Population Studies Group, LSHTM

@psglshtm.bsky.social

19 Mar

📢 Check out these two new publications involving PSG members Maria Gargiulo (@thegargiulian.bsky.social) and José Manuel Aburto!

Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Oxford University

10 Mar

Check out this great thread summarizing our recent paper "Temporary Shock or Lasting Scar?" 👇

Jenn Dowd@drjenndowd.bsky.social

1/ Has life expectancy fully recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic? In a new pre-print, we find that 31 of 34 high-income countries had still not returned to their expected life expectancy trajectories five years after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6... #demography

Antonino Polizzi reposted

@oxforddemsci.bsky.social

4 Mar

Five years after the pandemic began, have countries returned to their pre-COVID life expectancy trajectories? New research shows 31 of 34 high-income countries still have life expectancy deficits in 2024, suggesting lasting effects on population health. www.demography.ox.ac.uk/news/new-lcd...

demography.ox.ac.ukNew LCDS Preprint Asks: Has COVID-19 Left a Lasting Scar on Life Expectancy?Five years after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, an important question remains: was COVID-19 a short-lived mortality shock, or has it more permanently altered life expectancy trajectories? A new p...

3 Mar

📈 New preprint on life expectancy trajectories in high-income countries since 2020. 📉 Joint work with a great team from @mpidr.bsky.social @oxforddemsci.bsky.social @psglshtm.bsky.social @camunicampop.bsky.social Link below. 👇

Jonas Schöley@jschoeley.com

"Temporary shock or lasting scar?" By 2024 nearly all high-income countries remained below their pre-pandemic life expectancy trends. We identify four distinct mortality shock patterns since 2020. Full analysis in our preprint: www.medrxiv.org/content/10.6...

23 Feb

I am grateful for this recognition of my work. Congratulations to everyone whose work has been honored in memory of our late fellow student Julia Mead Knox.

Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Oxford University@oxforddemsci.bsky.social

🥈 Runner-Up: Antonino Polizzi 🥈 Recognised for his work: “Why is life expectancy in England and Wales falling behind? A cause-of-death decomposition approach.” Find it here: osf.io/preprints/so...

Taylor & Francis Research

21 Jan

Happy birth, TPN! Really great line-up. 👏

Monica Alexander@monjalexander.bsky.social

The Toronto Population Network @tpn-uoft.bsky.social Seminar Series is happening this semester, with a great line-up, including @lucampesando.bsky.social, Orsola Torrisi, @mdhayward.bsky.social, and @jnobles.bsky.social! Starts next Tuesday. If you're in Toronto please come along!

Antonino Polizzi reposted

@tandfresearch.bsky.social

23 Oct 2025

Is it really #OpenAccessWeek if you haven't read some of our newly published #OpenAccess articles? 🎤 What matters to politicians: spr.ly/6000AsV7a 🍼 Fertility, birth, reproduction: spr.ly/6000AsnDY 🗾 Sexual inactivity in Japan: spr.ly/6008AsnHQ Happy reading & researching!

Antonino Polizzi reposted

Human Mortality Database

@hmdatabase.bsky.social

9 Oct 2025

Replying to @hmdatabase.bsky.social

Many thanks to everyone who contributed to the session for their valuable insights and engaging discussions!💡

tandfonline.comtandfonline.com

Very kind reading recommendation from @amandajean.bsky.social: My new paper "Fertility, birth, reproduction: Connecting formal demographic frameworks" with Annette Baudisch. 🤓 Just out in Population Studies. doi.org/10.1080/0032...

A Jean Stevenson@amandajean.bsky.social

I love you, European demographers. Please never, ever change ❤️

doi.orgFertility, birth, reproduction: Connecting formal demographic frameworksThe conventional framework of fertility research conceptualizes childbirth from the mother’s perspective. From her perspective, birth is an uncertain and potentially recurring event. In contrast, t...

✍️ Just out: Annette Baudisch & I delve into the formal demography of fertility, birth, & reproduction timing. 👶 We use methods from mortality research to summarize when in the parental life course children are born. 📆 1/n doi.org/10.1080/0032... @sdu.dk @oxforddemsci.bsky.social @mpidr.bsky.social

What are the density, survival, and hazard functions good for? They capture fertility age patterns without individual birth histories, complex models, or parity-specific data. All you need are age-specific fertility rates, e.g. from the Human Fertility Database or UN World Population Prospects. 5/n

Maybe these functions are useful for forecasting fertility? Or for jointly modeling fertility and mortality? We do not fully know yet—but there’s plenty of exciting applied work ahead. Give our paper a read, try out the functions, and let us know what you think! 👇 6/n doi.org/10.1080/0032...

The 'Born once, die once' framework described above uses birth counts. Most demographers, however, work with fertility rates. Can we apply the 'life table logic' directly to these rates to get density, survival, and hazard functions of fertility? Yes! And we show exactly how in the paper. 3/n

What’s the difference between density, survival, and hazard functions based on birth counts vs fertility rates? We show that birth counts carry information on mortality in the maternal cohort; the fertility rates do not. That means if mortality is high, the two sets of functions will differ. 4/n

Every person dies only once—and is also born only once. We apply life table logic to all births in a cohort of women, treating birth (not death) as the event, and using maternal age as the time axis. The result: density, survival, and hazard functions that capture the timing of reproduction. 2/n

Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR)

23 May 2025

Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Oxford University@oxforddemsci.bsky.social

1/ A huge congrats to Dr. Antonino Polizzi @polizzan.bsky.social, who passed his DPhil viva for his thesis “The Causes and the Consequences of Growing Life Expectancy Shortfalls” on Friday, examined by Prof. @ridhikashyap.bsky.social & Dr. Iñaki Permanyer. @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social #demography

Antonino Polizzi reposted

@mpidr.bsky.social

8 May 2025

👋👋👋WelcomeWeeks @mpidr.bsky.social! We are happy to welcome @polizzan.bsky.social! He is a new member in the Laboratory of Population Health at the Department of Social Demography. Welcome Antonino! www.demogr.mpg.de/en/news_even...

Antonino Polizzi reposted

Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, Oxford University

@oxforddemsci.bsky.social

18 Mar 2025

👏 Kudos to @andreatilstra.bsky.social @polizzan.bsky.social @sanderwagner.bsky.social and Eva Akimova whose @naturecomms.bsky.social paper is among the top 25 most downloaded in social science and human behaviour for 2024 buff.ly/NmynGFV

nature.comTop 25 Social Science & Human Behavior Articles of 2024Browse the 25 most downloaded Nature Communications articles in social science and human behavior published in 2024

8 Jan 2025

New @pnasnexus.org: How did non-COVID causes of death affect life expectancy (LE) in 2015-2022? 📑 tl;dr: By 2022, many of the 24 countries examined had NOT recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Rising cardiovascular and substance/external mortality prevented larger LE gains. 📉 doi.org/10.1093/pnas...

18 Nov 2024

New @socarxiv.bsky.social preprint! 🚨 In "An integrated formal demographic fertility framework", A. Baudisch & I present new functions to describe population-level fertility age patterns—useful for modeling & forecasting? 🌟 📖 doi.org/10.31235/osf... @oxforddemsci.bsky.social @imprs-phds.bsky.social

What’s the best way to analyze #lifeexpectancy stagnation in the US? 🤔 In PNAS, @drjenndowd.bsky.social & I share our thoughts on a recent paper by Abrams, Myrskylä & Mehta. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2318276121 @oxforddemsci.bsky.social @nuffieldlibrary.bsky.social @mpidr.bsky.social (1)

Different counterfactuals provide different perspectives, neither is ‘right’ or ‘wrong’. What do you think is the best way to analyze US life expectancy stagnation? Read our letter: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2318276121 @leverhulme.bsky.social @popassocamerica.bsky.social @eapsphd.bsky.social (6)

You can also read Abrams et al.’s response here: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2320028121 Let's keep the conversation going! 🗨️ #mortality #demography #lifeexpectancy

We calculate an alternative counterfactual: What would US life expectancy be if 2010-19 age-specific mortality improved like in other high-income countries? 🌍 We find the opposite pattern: 25-64 mortality is more important than 65+ for explaining counterfactual differences. (4)

BOTTOM LINE: Working-age mortality is still an important driver of US life expectancy stagnation globally, but as Abrams et al. rightfully point out, we need to explore older-age slowdowns too. 📉 (5)

Abrams et al. calculated counterfactual US life expectancy in 2010-19 if annual age-specific mortality changes followed 2000-09 trends. Surprise finding: Slowdowns in 65+ mortality improvements explain more post-2010 stagnation than 25-64 mortality. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2308360120 (2)