William Bowe

Introducing the Poll Bludger's Victorian election guide and seats projection model. Current reading: L-NP 45, ALP 25, ON 15, GRN 3. pollbludger.net/2026/09/29/v...

All over now in Secret Harbour -- 13,000+ votes added from Secret Harbour Early Polling Place (around half the total count) are even stronger for One Nation that those counted earlier. www.pollbludger.net/2026/08/29/s...

I had access to old Labor party scrutineer stuff when I was doing things in Qld, and historically, it wasn't irregular that in seats where One Nation got the highest first preference, they also got the highest last preference. That carried across through time, and seems kind of apt elsewhere now.

After Farrer, this is the second by-election where I've been surprised by One Nation's weak preference flow: grist for the theory that the remaining Lib voters are moderates. Also (very likely) the second by-election where it ultimately didn't matter.

A bit of a wrinkle here: the first TCP results show preferences flowing surprisingly heavily to Labor. My system is still calling it for One Nation, but I'm no longer sure that it should be.

Looking good for One Nation in Secret Harbour. My results system is calling it for them, and it's doing so on the basis of a more modest projection than the ABC's (7.7% margin rather than 10.5%). www.pollbludger.net/2026/08/29/s...

Labor look like they've scraped home in the Stafford by-election, but my system isn't quite calling it yet. They lead by 768 at the end of the night, which I expect late-arriving postals will cut by about half. www.pollbludger.net/2026/05/16/s...

After a bad result for Labor in the Chermside South booth (with 9.1% now counted, still nothing on TCP): pollbludger.net/qld2026by1/R...

Queensland's Stafford by-election so far living up to expectations of a tight result in seat Labor holds by 5.3%. My system is generously still allowing the chance of a GRN win. Primary votes only so far, with 3.6% counted out of expected turnout of 80%. pollbludger.net/2026/05/16/s...

My results system is calling Nepean a LIB RETAIN. Quite a few of the best areas for One Nation are still outstanding, but even so, they're running well behind the second-placed independent. www.pollbludger.net/2026/05/02/n...

As predicted, the Liberals capitulated in the South Australian election. But as election analyst @pollbludger.bsky.social writes, One Nation's strong showing offers a warning to Labor as well. www.crikey.com.au/2026/03/23/s...

The Liberals have made a late rally in Morphett after doing quite a lot better at the electorate's early voting centre than they did on election day. Now lineball. pollbludger.net/sa2026/Resul...

Not I know it seems to be working, a plug for the Poll Bludger's South Australian election live results system: www.pollbludger.net/sa2026/Resul...

Exactly that: I estimate the primaries at ALP 42.7% (-2.7%), LNP 39.6% (+1.6%), GRN 13.0% (+1.4%). Would no doubt have had the effect you assumed in earlier times.

Big losers: mooted future ALP leader Meaghan Scanlon, whose seat of Gaven becomes borderline unwinnable, and Katter's Australian Party, which stands to lose one of the two seats left to it after its Hinchinbrook by-election defeat

Estimated new margins from today's Queensland state redistribution proposal: www.pollbludger.net/2026/03/10/q...

Queensland state redistribution proposal www.pollbludger.net/2026/03/10/q...

After strong pre-poll results for the LNP, my system is now calling the Hinchinbrook by-election www.pollbludger.net/2025/11/29/h...

The race is tightening in Hinchinbrook as larger centres come in, the early rural booths having swung massively against KAP. LNP still favoured, but a different dynamic on pre-polls could change things. www.pollbludger.net/2025/11/29/h...

Katter's have a vague hope in the Hinchinbrook by-election stemming from the fact that the swing against is weaker at the Townsville end than in the rural booths that have mostly reported so far. www.pollbludger.net/2025/11/29/h...

The Katter's vote has fallen by more than half across six rural booths in the Hinchinbrook by-election, leaving the LNP well placed to gain the seat. I'm projecting a One Nation vote of 15.4%, compared with 4.6%, which they would need to improve on to get in contention.

Newspoll: 58-42 to Labor. ALP 36% (steady), L-NP 24% (steady), GRN 13% (up two) and ON 15% (steady). www.pollbludger.net/2025/11/23/n...

I'm now calling #kiamavotes for Labor www.pollbludger.net/2025/09/13/k...

Not calling it yet, but with three booths in on the primary vote, the Liberals look well short of where they need to be in #kiamavotes pollbludger.net/2025/09/13/k...

Tasmanian voters have been treated to a state election result that pleased no one and resolved nothing, @pollbludger.bsky.social writes.

Now it's Labor's turn to "wait for the pre-polls to come in" #tasvotes

Eric Abetz on the ABC wishes he has 2024 figures for comparison from Irishtown. Right here, Eric. Swings shown below compared with that booth from last time. #tasvotes

First booths are in for #tasvotes and the big news is that my live results system seems to be working. Huge result for the Liberals in Irishtown, FWIW (not much). Follow the action here: www.pollbludger.net/tas2025/Resu...

You appear to be asking for the dataset, which you're never going to get, but the question of who's paying for it (nobody, in this case) is answered in the methodology statement d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Yo...

For today's podcast, I was joined by @pollbludger.bsky.social to go through each of five electorates in the Tasmanian state election, and also discuss the latest polls #politas #tasvotes

YouGov: Labor 34, Liberal 31, Greens 13, independents 18 in Tasmania. Plus the new Poll Bludger election guide. www.pollbludger.net/2025/06/30/t...

A YouGov South Australian state poll in @thetiser.bsky.social has Labor leading 67-33 www.pollbludger.net/2025/06/21/y...

The AEC confirms this is the final result (pending preference distribution and possible recount) -- the 86 have Senate votes only.

Tim Wilson's lead in Goldstein in today from 206 to 128. 86 envelopes awaiting scrutiny, but some of them will presumably be rejected. www.pollbludger.net/fed2025/Resu...

Update on the Calwell preference distribution: www.pollbludger.net/2025/05/19/l...

Nicolette Boele leads in Bradfield by 19. A maximum 280 declaration pre-polls to come. pollbludger.net/fed2025/Resu...

They're drowning in it

It's to do with me being on the road, but it's updating for at least the time being and I'm hoping I can keep that going

2500 words on Chinese Australians losing faith with the Liberals, and the only mention of the party whose leader said Australia was in danger of being swamped by them, to whom the Libs directed preferences, is an utterly irrelevant shot at the teals theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/can...

Modelling the Senate outcome. A close race in WA gives One Nation a chance of a third seat, and some cold water for The Australian's enthusiasm about Jacqui Lambie losing her seat www.pollbludger.net/2025/05/18/s...

Australians take a lot of pride in their preferential voting system. But does it actually suck? Robert Lechte argues it doesn't reflect voter sentiment: www.crikey.com.au/2025/05/16/a... William Bowe argues it ensures government accountability: www.crikey.com.au/2025/05/16/a...

Bradfield back in play after a batch of out-of-division pre-polls breaks 298-179 to Nicolette Boele, cutting her deficit from 178 to 59. Based on how late counting has been counting, my probability estimate is probably an under-estimate. www.pollbludger.net/fed2025/Resu...

My database records 13: ten Labor (Plibersek, Leigh, Albanese, Rishworth, Husic, Dick, Thistlethwaite, Rowland and Chalmers) and three Nationals (Chester, Joyce, Webster). Rishworth an interesting case: she gained Kingston from the Libs in 2007, and redistributions have done her more harm than good.

Queensland is ALP 2, LNP 2, GRN 1, ON 1, and NSW, VIC and SA are ALP 3, L-NP 2, GRN 1. With the territories status quo, likely final numbers are ALP 30, L-NP 27, GRN 11, ON 2, plus Lambie, Pocock, Babet, Tyrell, Thorpe and Payman.

According to the Poll Bludger's sophistimucated modelling, two Senate contests are in doubt: WA, either ALP 3, LIB 2, GRN 1 or (less likely) ALP 2, LIB 2, GRN 1, ON 1; and TAS, either ALP 2, LIB 2, GRN 1, JLN 1 or (less likely) ALP 3, LIB 1, GRN 1, JLN 1. pollbludger.net/2025/05/11/l...

Labor won a landslide with barely a third of the vote. Now all eyes will move to the Senate, with a shift leftwards on the cards if the Coalition's disastrous lower house vote is anything to go by.

With polls closed on the eastern seaboard, the Poll Bludger's live results feature is in business: pollbludger.net/fed2025/Resu...

"As per 2022 federal election preference flows with the exception of One Nation and Family First preference flows which were set at 2024 Queensland election levels." This means they've bumped up the Coalition's share of ON preferences from 64.3% to 73%.