Ben Raue

Ben Raue

@benraue.com

The guy from The Tally Room. Psephologist analysing Australian elections, and hosting a podcast about elections in Australia and elsewhere. Find me at https://www.tallyroom.com.au/

3.7K followers1.1K following2K posts

An under-rated part of the JSJ story is how he ended up in parliament. He didn't win a contested party preselection for a winnable seat - he was the #3 on the WA Greens Senate ticket in 2016 behind Ludlam and Siewert. No Green has ever come close to being elected from #3 (or #2 in a half-Senate)

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So of all the long-term Greens senators in Australia, only Steele-John short-circuited the normal rise in the party and preselection, instead going from a totally unwinnable spot to a safe seat in the Senate.

An under-rated part of the JSJ story is how he ended up in parliament. He didn't win a contested party preselection for a winnable seat - he was the #3 on the WA Greens Senate ticket in 2016 behind Ludlam and Siewert. No Green has ever come close to being elected from #3 (or #2 in a half-Senate)

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The only comparable example is Andrew Bartlett who replaced Larissa Waters for the same reason. But Bartlett was a former senator, former Democrats leader and had contested the #2 seat which was winnable in many states (perhaps not Queensland). He also had run for Brisbane, one of their best seats.

So Bartlett was considered a credible potential MP, even if there wasn't much expectation he would win in 2016. And then he served a brief term and stepped down to run for Brisbane and make room for Waters to return.

An under-rated part of the JSJ story is how he ended up in parliament. He didn't win a contested party preselection for a winnable seat - he was the #3 on the WA Greens Senate ticket in 2016 behind Ludlam and Siewert. No Green has ever come close to being elected from #3 (or #2 in a half-Senate)

If Ludlam had resigned from the Senate in the normal manner, the party would have had a choice about who they ran, and my understanding was there was a number of contenders in the wings, JSJ was not one of them.

But because Ludlam was disqualified due to citizenship, the seat was filled by a recount, and JSJ was automatically elected. Steele-John could have chosen to resign and let the party conduct a full preselection, but didn't. Since then, he has been preselected and elected, but always from incumbency.

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all time great merch here literally doesn't get better than this

Ben Raue@benraue.com

I'm making merch! Over the next two weeks you can pre-order a 'Waiting for the pre-polls" hat or a "Single Transferable Tote" bag, with orders closing November 2. Check it out now! www.tallyroom.com.au/68754

Today's blog post analyses the DemosAU MRP published earlier this week, which showed a small drop in One Nation's vote share producing a massive loss of seats. I explain where that comes from, and what it shows about the increased volatility of the Australian system www.tallyroom.com.au/68750

tallyroom.com.auNew DemosAU MRP – how a small swing costs a lot of seatsDemosAU has now published four MRP polls over the last year – the very large polls that involve projecting the result in every seat. DemosAU is one of two pollsters publishing regular MRPs, a…

Part 2 of my three-party electoral history podcast series 'Just Vote 1' is out now. This part covers the period from the 1950s to the 1990s, looking at DLP preferences, Whitlam moving for OPV, and preferences beginning to help Labor in the 90s.

tallyroom.com.auPodcast #169 – Just Vote 1: Labor turns to OPV, and turns awayIn the second part of ‘Just Vote 1’, Ben looks at the history of optional preferential voting from the 1950s to the 1990s: the role of DLP preferences in keeping Labor out of power, and…

One highlight from the podcast is explaining how the high rates of informal voting in the Senate in 1974 likely deprived the Whitlam govt of 2 extra seats and set the stage for the Dismissal.

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Ben covers a lot in this, and some of the arguments are familiar. But not the anti-preselection stuff. We think the spectrum is rank and file ballot-party executive, but interwar conservatives disliked preselections as such.

Ben Raue@benraue.com

Today I’m starting something new with the Tally Room podcast: a three-part history podcast looking at the history of OPV in Australia, rolling out over the next 3 weeks. This first episode looks at early debates on preferential voting and how it worked up to 1951. www.tallyroom.com.au/68638

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I know the main headline here is PQ back in power and possibly a referendum to follow, but the 1a headline is absolutely that first past the post is not a great fit for politics in Quebec (and other provinces) at the moment.

Today I’m starting something new with the Tally Room podcast: a three-part history podcast looking at the history of OPV in Australia, rolling out over the next 3 weeks. This first episode looks at early debates on preferential voting and how it worked up to 1951. www.tallyroom.com.au/68638

tallyroom.com.auPodcast #168 – Just Vote 1: The rise of preferential votingIn the first in a three-party election history series about Optional Preferential Voting called ‘Just Vote 1’, Ben explores the rise of preferential voting – how it happened, who …

In the next two weeks I will look at the Whitman government’s push for OPV in 1974, and Labor’s cooling enthusiasm for the reform as the flow of preferences reversed. I’ll also look at the “Just Vote 1” campaigning which started around 1999-2001.

Today I’m starting something new with the Tally Room podcast: a three-part history podcast looking at the history of OPV in Australia, rolling out over the next 3 weeks. This first episode looks at early debates on preferential voting and how it worked up to 1951. www.tallyroom.com.au/68638

tallyroom.com.auPodcast #168 – Just Vote 1: The rise of preferential votingIn the first in a three-party election history series about Optional Preferential Voting called ‘Just Vote 1’, Ben explores the rise of preferential voting – how it happened, who …
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Today, however, it’s harder to tell who benefits from weaker preference flows and who would be harmed. That will be the last bit of the story, in two weeks time.

My conventional podcast format, with guests, will return in late October, with a few episodes planned for Victoria plus a NZ preview.

Today I’m starting something new with the Tally Room podcast: a three-part history podcast looking at the history of OPV in Australia, rolling out over the next 3 weeks. This first episode looks at early debates on preferential voting and how it worked up to 1951. www.tallyroom.com.au/68638

tallyroom.com.auPodcast #168 – Just Vote 1: The rise of preferential votingIn the first in a three-party election history series about Optional Preferential Voting called ‘Just Vote 1’, Ben explores the rise of preferential voting – how it happened, who …

In the next two weeks I will look at the Whitman government’s push for OPV in 1974, and Labor’s cooling enthusiasm for the reform as the flow of preferences reversed. I’ll also look at the “Just Vote 1” campaigning which started around 1999-2001.

The main theme of the podcast is pretty much all partisan figures, whatever their principled arguments, took positions that aligned with their partisan self-interest. And when that self-interest changed, their positions changed (albeit sometimes with a bit of a delay).

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David Shoebridge won the Greens leadership vote on first preferences, but the party announced the two-candidate-preferred result anyway. Gotta love the commitment to ranked choice voting

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We would currently have a lot more art deco flats in Woollahra Council if not for 100 years of tradition of upholding bans explicitly initiated to keep the poors out. The street in Rose Bay mentioned at the end recently got declared a mid-rise zone by Minns under the LMR. 🎉

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Does anyone have any suggestions about how I could get a copy of this ad? From the 2001 QLD state election.

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Excited to be in this line up and can’t wait to chat Vic election aftermath with these legends 🙂

Ben Raue@benraue.com

I'm excited to announce I'll be hosting my first Tally Room live podcast recording in Melbourne on December 1 - three days after the Victorian state election - with guests @rachelwithers.bsky.social and Emily Foley. Tickets will be available for Patreon members next Monday www.tallyroom.com.au/68631

I'm excited to announce I'll be hosting my first Tally Room live podcast recording in Melbourne on December 1 - three days after the Victorian state election - with guests @rachelwithers.bsky.social and Emily Foley. Tickets will be available for Patreon members next Monday www.tallyroom.com.au/68631

tallyroom.com.auTally Room Live – after the Victorian electionI’m excited to announce I will be doing a live recording of the Tally Room podcast on the Tuesday after the Victorian state election, December 1, in Melbourne. The event will be held at the P…

The AEC has published the official numbers to be used for the federal redistribution of Queensland, so I've analysed which parts of the state are under quota or over quota. Suggestions can now be made, with a deadline of October 16.

tallyroom.com.auPopulation figures published for QLD federal redistributionThe Australian Electoral Commission has officially opened the first round of submissions for the federal redistribution of Queensland. The state will maintain thirty electorates, but the current bo…

Polls have closed for the by-election for the NT Assembly seat of Mulka. I am not properly liveblogging this result, but I might post briefly here. It is a very remote electorate where I expect a lot of votes to be cast at mobile booths, but there is one election day booth and two pre-poll booths.

Updated the live blog - first batch of postal votes has One Nation way out in front, with Labor losing almost half of their support.

Labor is getting very strong flows of preferences over One Nation but it doesn't seem likely to be enough. I think One Nation has won Secret Harbour.

I'll just be posting here as the website is unable to handle the traffic and isn't working. Anyone who offers a technical fix will be blocked, thanks!

Today's blog post analyses the list of candidates who have announced so far for the Victorian state election. Labor and Greens are close to a full ticket, as are the Coalition. Interestingly the Victorian Socialists have already nominated over 60 candidates. www.tallyroom.com.au/66259

tallyroom.com.auCandidate numbers piling up in VictoriaWe’re just about three months out from the Victorian election. The list of announced candidates for the election has been growing, and it is quite interesting to look at the field of candidat…

I'm excited to announce that my Queensland state election guide is now live. That election is a while away, in October 2028, but with the redistribution finalised I have now been able to put up the guide. www.tallyroom.com.au/66247

tallyroom.com.auQueensland election guide publishedWith the redistribution of Queensland’s state electorates now finalised, I have completed my guide to the 2028 Queensland state election. While this election is still some way off, it should …

The proposal to rename the federal seat of Franklin to "Tongerlongeter" has been dropped - the seat will remain Franklin for this redistribution cycle.