Piero Stanig

Piero Stanig

@pstanig.bsky.social

Political scientist, Bocconi University. Voting, political economy, climate change, robots, AI, and more.

947 followers1.6K following31 posts

Piero Stanig
@pstanig.bsky.social

Finally typeset in @thejop.bsky.social, the paper with @simonecremaschi.bsky.social on the electoral impact of the Vaia storm in the Alps in northeastern Italy. Link to some free pdf views here www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/epdf/10....

journals.uchicago.eduUniversity of Chicago Press Journals: Cookie absent
Simone Cremaschi@simonecremaschi.bsky.social

🚨 New paper 🚨 with @pstanig.bsky.social forthcoming at @thejop.bsky.social 🎉 about the political consequences of climate-related disasters 🌲💦⚠️ Pre-print 👉 osf.io/preprints/os... Summary 🧵👇

Piero Stanig reposted

Jonathan Hopkin
@jonathanhopkin.eurosky.social

I’m hearing a lot of people repeating the line that social democrats are not losing votes to the far right, so that invalidates the thesis that social democrats have lost touch with the working class and should address issues like migration. But this is missing the point

Piero Stanig reposted

Lisa Spantig
@lisaspantig.com

Marie & Pinotti (2024): Very important paper, also in light of the policy debates in many countries: - Immigration does not increase crime rates. - Obtaining legal status decreases immigrants' involvement in criminal activities. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=... #EconSky #PolSky #MigSky #noAfd

aeaweb.orgImmigration and Crime: An International Perspective(Winter 2024) - The association between immigration and crime has long been a subject of debate, and only recently have we encountered systematic empirical evidence on this issue. Data shows that immigrants, often younger, male, and less educated compared to natives, are disproportionately represented among offenders in numerous host countries. However, existing research, inclusive of our analysis of new international data, consistently indicates that immigration does not significantly impact local crime rates in these countries. Furthermore, recent studies underscore that obtaining legal status diminishes immigrants' involvement in criminal activities. Finally, we discuss potential explanations for the apparent incongruity between immigrants' overrepresentation among offenders and the null effect of immigration on crime rates.

Piero Stanig reposted

Aina Gallego
@ainagallego.bsky.social

📢 Our new paper in Political Analysis explains how to use LLMs like GPT-4o, Llama or Mistral to estimate the ideological and policy position of political texts. Our approach is fast, reliable, cost-effective and reproducible and works with texts written in different languages 1/7 cup.org/4axBEXo

cup.orgPositioning Political Texts with Large Language Models by Asking and Averaging | Political Analysis | Cambridge CorePositioning Political Texts with Large Language Models by Asking and Averaging
Piero Stanig
@pstanig.bsky.social

This. Few things are more maddening than social scientists deliberately underestimating the agents they study. (Yeah they often make choices that might look silly prima facie; that we cannot understand them is an indictment of our discipline(s) more than anything else).

Sean Gailmard@sean-gailmard.bsky.social

I feel that our job is to understand why people do what they do. “Because they are incoherent” is a bad explanation. If anyone offered that depiction of a decision I made, I would simply say they didn’t understand it. It takes a lot of hubris to give less credence to decision makers I study.

Piero Stanig
@pstanig.bsky.social

Maybe it’s just me (ESL US trained political scientist) but the expression “the German government collapsed”, which I keep seeing, does not really convey the correct impression, esp to US audiences. “The cabinet was forced to resign following a vote in the legislature” does not sound that ominous

Piero Stanig reposted

Catherine E. de Vries
@catherinedevries.bsky.social

#Polisky folks: Bocconi University is looking for AP in Environmental Politics & Policy 🌏 Offer: Great group of political scientists working at awesome social science university in a fabulous city 🙌 🚨 Deadline: 30th of November Please share 🔁 Apply 🔗 & ℹ️ : jobmarket.unibocconi.eu?type=&dep=SPS

jobmarket.unibocconi.euJob Market - Bocconi UniversityRecruiting, Faculty, Post-doc Grant, Collaboration Contracts

Piero Stanig reposted

Piero Stanig
@pstanig.bsky.social

New paper with Paolo Agnolin and Italo Colantone: in a way, I wish we didn’t have to write it --it's just another primer on post-treatment bias. But it’s a fun paper...We show how one can break some of Colantone and Stanig's earlier results (i.e., ours!) journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

journals.sagepub.comSage Journals: Discover world-class researchSubscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
Piero Stanig
@pstanig.bsky.social

New paper with Paolo Agnolin and Italo Colantone: in a way, I wish we didn’t have to write it --it's just another primer on post-treatment bias. But it’s a fun paper...We show how one can break some of Colantone and Stanig's earlier results (i.e., ours!) journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

journals.sagepub.comSage Journals: Discover world-class researchSubscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.
Piero Stanig
@pstanig.bsky.social

We also argue --quite forcefully-- that simpler models (without bad controls) may offer more relevant policy insights than complex models that aim at testing many different stories at once, but can ultimately mislead on each one of them.

Piero Stanig
@pstanig.bsky.social

Does mediation analysis help in this setting, you might ask? Maybe. But using principal stratification following Forastiere et al., we clarify what the ignorability assumptions for causal mediation imply: these are not just technical assumptions, they are loaded with substance.

Piero Stanig
@pstanig.bsky.social

On Sun, tinyurl.com/22g5ccwp What If You See It? Workers’ Perceptions of and Reactions to LLMs (with Anelli, Colantone, @ainagallego.bsky.social), the pre-analysis plan for a survey experiment (in US, DE, and IT) showing workers in cognitive occupations what GPT can do #APSA2024

tinyurl.comWhat If You See It? Workers’ Perceptions of and Reactions to LLMsAs Large Language Models (LLMs) increasingly demonstrate their capability to perform diverse cognitive tasks, they have sparked both excitement and concern regarding their economic potential and the p...

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