Simone Cremaschi

How do refugee crises end? In Dec. 2024, Syrian dictator Assad fled to Russia, ending a regime that displaced millions Would Syrians go back now the regime fell? Our paper tests this with original panel data (2019-2026), ~3k Syrian refugees, spanning fall of Assad osf.io/preprints/so... 🧵 1/8

📄 New working paper out: osf.io/preprints/so... We (@thiloalbers.bsky.social @felixkersting.bsky.social and Fabian Kosse) try to understand why some citizens who are objectively well off still feel left behind, and why this matters for populist attitudes.

New paper in @jeeanews.bsky.social with @martinezluis.bsky.social! Fiscal rules have quietly become a central feature of local governments around the world. But do they improve government or simply impose politically costly austerity? We study one such reform in Colombia. 🧵 sl1nk.com/zs0m0a4

Which immigrants do people prefer and why? Many point to skill levels, but @mfreino.bsky.social @isabel-ruiz.bsky.social and I argue people also consider the social value of work immigrants do, even if considered "lower" skilled. Open access in @ejprjournal.bsky.social: doi.org/10.1017/S147... 🧵

Remember that recent paper claiming to show that "ideological bias" determined the results obtained by immigration policy research teams? A careful, open-code reanalysis by @kauspurg.bsky.social & Josef Brüderl finds that the result arises from a coding error. —> doi.org/10.31222/osf...

We have a new paper out on what the large conjoint literature tells us about public opinion on immigrant characteristics:

Grazie a Il Manifesto per aver raccontato il nostro studio sulla memorializzazione della Resistenza e dell’antifascismo nei comuni italiani oggi, in occasione del 25 Aprile. ilmanifesto.it/uneredita-vi...

Thank you for having us @eleala.bsky.social !

New paper out in Annual Review of Sociology with @arnoutvanderijt.bsky.social #W.Foley and @l-sage.bsky.social "Luck and Predictability in the Life Course" We take stock of what we know about luck and its role in shaping life-courses and inequality www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...

I've been using random seeds for years but I have no idea how they work. Seeds somehow(?) make the same random numbers? So I figured it out! New post includes an interactive PRNG generator, lava lamps, lottery fraud, @random.org, Chaucer, and Minecraft #rstats www.andrewheiss.com/blog/2026/04...

New paper out in @thejop.bsky.social : "Immigration, Public Housing, and Support for the French National Front." How does expanding public housing affect far-right support? The answer depends heavily on local conditions, and specifically on local immigrant shares. Paper: doi.org/10.1086/736361

NEW (and open access!) in @pnas.org: We find that Secure Communities triggered “preemptive” immigration enforcement, increasing detentions, transfers, & removals even before formal county activation. Joint with @cvargas100.bsky.social and @immigrationlab.bsky.social www.pnas.org/doi/epdf/10....

Does public service deprivation boost support for the populist right? New evidence in our paper, conditionally accepted at APSR 🥳, where we study how GP closures shape voting intentions in England. 👇

mariozechner.at/posts/2026-0...

Can feed algorithms shape what people think about politics? Our paper "The Political Effects of X's Feed Algorithm" is out today in Nature and answers "Yes." www.nature.com/articles/s41...

🚨📰New WP 🚨📰 How does social housing design affect neighborhoods decades later? We study London gangs to show that postwar urban planning—specifically high-rise public housing construction—had lasting effects on gang formation @cep-lse.bsky.social

New year, new chapter: I’m starting a new position at @ox.ac.uk. Thrilled to join DPIR as a Departmental Lecturer and Nuffield College as an Associate Member. Looking forward to what’s ahead!

@yangyangzhou.bsky.social, @shuningge.bsky.social Naijia Liu, and I have a new (AND BETTER) draft of our paper "Liberalizing Refugee Hosting Policies withoutLosing the Vote". Link: osf.io/preprints/os... Comments are welcome!

🥳 New year, new publication 📑"Contested memories: the political effects of de-commemoration proposals" @jeppjournal.bsky.social With Francesco Colombo, we study a street renaming proposal in Berlin and find -contrary to conventional wisdom- no political backlash, but a positive feedback effect.

A new paper by George Borjas—who served this past year in the Trump White House designing some of its anti-immigration policies—claims to display evidence of ideological bias among researchers who study immigration. doi.org/10.1126/scia... 🧵 Thread—>

4. Ecological crises as accelerator of the far-right @jksteinberger.bsky.social, Céline Keller and @simonecremaschi.bsky.social show that climate shocks hit hardest where austerity has hollowed out public services, breeding narratives of state abandonment and boosting the far-right (5/6)

A great overview of a great special issue, including our paper on the legacies of antifascist resistance in Italy. Thank you again @laiabalcells.bsky.social @apvjustino.bsky.social @andrearuggeri.bsky.social !

📢 Analytical sociology is coming home! Call 4 INAS26 is open 🌍 1-3Jul26 @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social and @sociologyoxford.bsky.social (☔) ☢️ Deadline: 1Feb26 🦹 Organisers: @aksoyundan.bsky.social , @kasimirdederichs.bsky.social, D Kretschmer, @awaldendorf.bsky.social Info: tinyurl.com/yc2tusjx

Big new blogpost! My guide to data visualization, which includes a very long table of contents, tons of charts, and more. --> Why data visualization matters and how to make charts more effective, clear, transparent, and sometimes, beautiful. www.scientificdiscovery.dev/p/salonis-gu...

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Agree with much of what Cyrus says in his blog post and the comments below. I'd add that some of the best recent work in poli sci is mixed methods, and uses a combo of observational data, experiments/quasi-experiments, and in-depth interviews/case studies to answer a puzzle from multiple angles.

Our paper just got accepted in the @thejop.bsky.social 🎉 and is now on the journal website: www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/... For me personally, it's a milestone: my first paper accepted after a peer review!

New article out in @cpsjournal.bsky.social with Tabea Palmtag and @dpzollinger.bsky.social 📝 We use open-ended survey questions (in Germany) to assess how and among whom social status shifts are perceived. This tests cultural backlash narratives in voters' perceptions. 🔗 doi.org/10.1177/0010...

🚨 New working paper 🚨 We often see populist parties like Reform UK blame higher energy bills on climate change policies. What are the political consequences of this strategy? Very early draft; comments and criticisms are welcomed! full draft: z-dickson.github.io/assets/dicks...

Now out @apsrjournal.bsky.social with page numbers! 🫒 We advance a new argument on how economic crises fuel support for far-right parties in left-behind places by tapping into long-standing community narratives shorturl.at/bA55v @catherinedevries.bsky.social

Check out The Qualitative Metamorphosis in @comppol.bsky.social! Great review by @ajayverghese.bsky.social of books by @saragoodman.bsky.social, Jen Cyr, @marioluissmall.bsky.social, Jessica Calarco, @alanjacobs.bsky.social, and @macartan.bsky.social. 👇 www.ingentaconnect.com/content/cuny...

NEW - Exposure to Confederate Monuments: The Political Effect of Non-Intervention - https://cup.org/42ZHRc0 "results highlight the potential negative consequences of maintaining controversial commemorations" - Ana Ruipérez Núñez #OpenAccess

New UN report warns that welfare cuts can fuel far-right support. It features my work on public service deprivation with @paularettl.bsky.social @catherinedevries.bsky.social @marcocappelluti.bsky.social and on climate-related disasters and far-right incumbents with @pstanig.bsky.social

This new report of the UN Special Rapporteur on extreme poverty and human rights docs.un.org/en/A/80/138 cites my work on trade shocks and economic nationalism with Italo Colantone, but also a paper of mine on extreme weather events with @simonecremaschi.bsky.social.

Cool paper by @eddieyang.bsky.social, confirming our LLM hacking findings (arxiv.org/abs/2509.08825): ✓ LLMs are brittle data annotators ✓ Downstream conclusions flip frequently: LLM hacking risk is real! ✓ Bias correction methods can help but have trade-offs ✓ Use human expert whenever possible

Why do rustbelts vote radical right? Studying the German Ruhr area, @nilsblossey.bsky.social, @lstoetze.bsky.social and I show: it’s not just about deindustrialization, but also about the original industrialization. Where coal is buried deeper and mining started later, the AfD is stronger today 1/12

1st article from my dissertation is out in Perspectives today!! two takeaways: a) knowledge economy 'winners' may not be subject to status loss but they sure care about status preservation & b) this is consequential for their attitudes re: immigration & diversity. Thnx 2 all along this journey!!

A great scholar and a very good friend coming to Milan: Ursula Daxecker. Thursday 16 October, 3 pm.

Muchas gracias @ipp-csic.bsky.social for the warm welcome and the insightful questions. Hasta pronto!

Looking forward to visiting @ipp-csic.bsky.social and presenting joint work with @siennanordquist.bsky.social @mattiacecchi2000.bsky.social @catherinedevries.bsky.social!

Just out in @cpsjournal.bsky.social 🚨 Together with @dschraff.bsky.social, I ask: Is the urban–rural divide in Europe affectively polarised? 👉 journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.... 1/7 🧵