Richard Colwell

Richard Colwell

@redcceo.bsky.social

CEO of RED C Research Group and President of WIN international research network. Content likely to be around human insight, brand building political polling, and maybe a little sailing, rugby and of course Spurs.

1K followers194 following40 posts

Richard Colwell
@redcceo.bsky.social

Do by-election results in the middle of a government’s term really matter, given they are often used by voters to punish the government of the day? Read our latest @businesspost.bsky.social political poll on our website here: tinyurl.com/32pmhmkd

redcresearch.comDo by-election results in the middle of a government’s term really matter, given they are often used by voters to punish the government of the day? - RedC Research & MarketingOur poll today suggests the recent by-elections in Dublin Central and Galway West could have a profound impact on at least two of the larger parties in the State, both in terms of direction and leader...
Richard Colwell
@redcceo.bsky.social

Latest RED C @businesspost poll sees FF fall again, as SF & Soc. Dems make gains. Sinn Féin 24% +2 Fine Gael 18% +1 Fianna Fáil 15% -3 Independent 13% -1 Soc. Dems 10% +2 Labour 5% +1 Aontú 5% -1 Ind. Ireland 4% = PBP-Solidarity 3% = Green Party 2% -1 Net: Other 1%

Richard Colwell
@redcceo.bsky.social

Hers is my article on those gains for SF. Look great, but also very similar to the gains seen post the 2020 election. Can they translate this into real votes at an election?

Business Post@businesspost.bsky.social

Richard Colwell: Are Sinn Féin gains real or underpinned by short-term anti-government sentiment?

businesspost.ieRichard Colwell: Are Sinn Féin gains real or underpinned by short-term anti-government sentiment?Sinn Féin: while in pole position for most of the electoral cycle, the party ultimately became a leaky bucket, haemorrhaging nationalistic voters to the right wing and independents, and losing college-educated millennials to Soc Dems and Labour
Richard Colwell
@redcceo.bsky.social

@REDCResearch & @businessposthq last poll vs. exit poll. Average error of just 0.9%. Plenty of votes still to be counted. But suggests very accurate polling from all the Irish polling industry. Putting to bed the view that polls are always wrong AND that online polls don’t work!

Richard Colwell
@redcceo.bsky.social

@businesspost poll 27th Nov (vs. 10th Nov) Fianna Fáil 21% (=) Fine Gael 20% (-2%) Sinn Fein 20% (+2%) Ind. Cand. 14% (-1%) Soc Dems 6% (=) Ind. Ireland 4% (+1%) Green 4% (=) Labour 4% (+1%) Aontú 4% (-1%) PBP-Solidarity 2% (=) Others 1% (=) Moe +\- 3% FW 20th-26th

Richard Colwell reposted

Prof David Farrell, UCD
@davidfarrell-ucd.bsky.social

Replying to @lizcarolan.com

Here’s one for those wanting to know how their policy positions compare with the parties www.independent.ie/irish-news/e... VoteSmart: Take our online election test – now including Independent candidates

independent.ieVoteSmart: Take our online election test – now including Independent candidatesPhase two of the Irish Independent’s election tool ‘VoteSmart’ has gone live.
Richard Colwell
@redcceo.bsky.social

A lot more time for larger parties in this 10 party debate as expected and probably tight. Yet have to feel sorry for some of the smaller parties. Think Joan Collins has had about 20 seconds speaking time so far.

Richard Colwell reposted

Seth Abramson
@sethabramson.bsky.social

Replying to @sethabramson.bsky.social

To be clear, he won—I've seen zero evidence suggesting fraud. My point is that a 128,000-vote swing in 3 states would have led to a Harris administration. We remain a closely divided nation where informed voters voted for Harris and uninformed voters are about to be wildly surprised at what happens.

Richard Colwell
@redcceo.bsky.social

Only 2 polls so far this GE campaign. Face to face by Ipsos polling seems to show FG with a greater lead. But FF historically outperforms polls. FF currently higher share in the online polls, that they gave out about 3-4 months ago! Very tight among the top 3 tbh. Key to see any momentum in next wk.

Richard Colwell
@redcceo.bsky.social

Latest update from Nate Silver in vote share in US election Harris 75.0m votes (48.3%) Trump 77.4m votes (49.8%) other 2.9m votes (1.9%) Trump margin +1.6% (with rounding) You can win a “landslide” but still be within margin of error of many of the polls!

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