Stacie Pettyjohn

foreignpolicy.comHow to Avoid Disaster in the Next Iran WarRecent war games highlight how Washington can improve its air defenses so the next round of fighting isn’t worse.

@philipsheers.bsky.social & I write in @foreignpolicy.com about @cnas.bsky.social wargames exploring the next war w/a rearmed Iran. The results were troubling. Better warning & drone defenses help, but vulnerable bases raise questions about US strategy & posture. foreignpolicy.com/2026/10/06/i...

warontherocks.comA Body Blow? The War on Iran and U.S. Military ReadinessThe war against Iran is putting new strains on U.S. military readiness by consuming munitions and missile defense interceptors, as well as through

18 Sept

A body blow: Mark Cancian, Mike Eisenstadt, @ryanevans.bsky.social, & me on how the war with Iran is draining the stockpiles and readiness the U.S. military needs elsewhere. New @warontherocks.bsky.social podcast warontherocks.com/a-body-blow-...

npr.orgWhy does the U.S. military seem stymied in the war with Iran?Defense analyst Stacie Pettyjohn says while the U.S. military is facing long-range missile shortages, prolonged deployments and vacated regional bases, Iran is building cheaper weapons quickly.

19 Aug

I enjoyed talking with Dave Davies on @nprfreshair.bsky.social about the U.S. war with Iran: missile shortfalls, the vulnerability of Gulf bases to Iran's cheap drones and missiles, the industrial base, & what it all means for deterrence in Asia. www.npr.org/2026/08/19/n...

npr.orgExpert discusses dwindling U.S. munitions reserve and the effect on the Iran warNPR's Michel Martin speaks with Center for a New American Security senior fellow Stacie Pettyjohn about the shortage of U.S. long-range precision missiles in the wake of the war against Iran.

6 Aug

I enjoyed speaking with @michelmartinnpr.bsky.social on @npr.org's Morning Edition about the impact that the Iran war is having on US stockpiles of precision guided missiles. npr.org/2026/08/05/n...

npr.orgWhy the US is losing the drone war : The Indicator from Planet MoneyThe US defense industry is struggling to keep up with the revolution in cheap drones vs. expensive reusable military equipment. Today on the show, we talk with Stacie Pettyjohn, the director of the De...

8 July

I joined @planetmoney.bsky.social's The Indicator podcast to discuss why the U.S. is struggling to produce the cheap drones that are reshaping modern warfare. Listen here: www.npr.org/2026/07/06/n...

economist.comHow to bring down cheap, low-flying dronesAcoustics and innovative radar could help

2 June

This @economist.com piece gets it right: early detection is one of the hardest and most critical steps in countering small drones. www.economist.com/science-and-...

cnas.orgCountering the SwarmThe counter-drone mission entails much more than simply air defense and cannot be relegated to traditional, isolated air defense formations.

2 June

To learn about all the steps needed to defeat drones and the technologies required, check out @mollykcam.bsky.social & my @cnas.bsky.social report, Countering the Swarm. www.cnas.org/publications...

irregularwarfare.orgHellscape Taiwan: Drones, Deterrence, and the Future of Asymmetric DefenseThis week’s episode of the Irregular Warfare Podcast examines how Taiwan could deter—or potentially defeat—a Chinese invasion by transforming the Taiwan Strait into an “unmanned hellscape.” Anchored i...

21 May

Really enjoyed joining Ben Jebb & Mark Montgomery on the Irregular Warfare Podcast to talk Hellscape for Taiwan, @mollykcam.bsky.social & my @cnas.bsky.social report. irregularwarfare.org/podcasts/hel...

youtube.comCommanding the Air: the Future of Airborne Battle ManagementYouTube video by Center for a New American Security (CNAS)

24 Apr

How is airborne battle management shaping the Iran war, and what happens when the E-3s age out? Phil Sheers, Q Hinote, Kari Bingen, and I tackled both in our @cnas.bsky.social panel. Watch here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=UgkX...

cnas.orgEyes in the SkyAirborne sensing and air battle management are distinct but intertwined tasks.

24 Apr

You can find Phil's "Eyes in the Sky" report here: www.cnas.org/publications...

lawfaremedia.orgThe Russia-Iran PartnershipWhy Moscow is helping Iran fight the United States and Israel.

21 Apr

Moscow is helping Iran to target U.S. forces in the Middle East & reconstituting its drone stockpiles. In @lawfaremedia.org wfare, my @cnas.bsky.social colleague Delaney Soliday documents Russian support & why sanctions alone will not stop it. www.lawfaremedia.org/article/the-...

nytimes.comHow Iran’s Cheap, Low-Tech Drones Have Cost the U.S.

20 Apr

The cost disparity between Iran's cheap drones & the U.S. interceptors is breaking the bank. We need more cheap defenses--rockets, guns, interceptor drones — & at scale. Happy to have my report w/@mollykcam.bsky.social informing @nytimes.com' sharp breakdown www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

cnas.orgCountering the SwarmThe counter-drone mission entails much more than simply air defense and cannot be relegated to traditional, isolated air defense formations.

20 Apr

You can find our full @cnas.bsky.social report Countering the Swarm here: www.cnas.org/publications...

Stacie Pettyjohn reposted

Dr. Jonathan Schroden

@jjschroden.bsky.social

1 Apr

Good explainer article on what the MEUs are and what they can (and probably cannot) do today from @taskandpurpose.com Featuring quotes by @spettyjohn.bsky.social and me👇 taskandpurpose.com/tech-tactics...

taskandpurpose.comHere's what Marine Expeditionary Units are designed to doThe units are embarked on ships and include air and ground combat elements along with logistics and command structures.

breakingdefense.comWashington questions NATO alliance, as Spain fences off airspace - Breaking Defense"When we ask for additional assistance or simple access… we get questions or roadblocks or hesitation," US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said today when asked about US support to NATO's collective de...

1 Apr

Spain, Italy, France restricting base access and overflight is a reminder: these permissions are always political, always contingent on the specific situation. That's especially true when you treat partners transactionally, which is the Trump admin's approach. breakingdefense.com/2026/03/wash...?

rand.orgPolitical Challenges to the U.S. Overseas Military PresenceThe U.S. military depends on access to overseas bases to project power around the world. Political challenges to access have been common, but the threat has often been overstated.

1 Apr

What is new—and what makes this moment more dangerous—is treating long-standing allies as transactional partners. Expect this to get worse, not better. I did extensive research on this issue at RAND in happier times. www.rand.org/pubs/researc...

Stacie Pettyjohn reposted

Andrej Matisak

@matisaksk.bsky.social

28 Mar

Hellscape #Taiwan: A Porcupine Defense in the Drone Age, by @spettyjohn.bsky.social & @mollykcam.bsky.social warontherocks.com/2026/03/hell... via @warontherocks.bsky.social #China

warontherocks.comHellscape Taiwan: A Porcupine Defense in the Drone AgeIt is 2029. General Secretary Xi Jinping has given the order for the People’s Liberation Army to forcibly take Taiwan. Hundreds of Chinese warships begin

27 Mar

If the PLA invades, Taiwan could stop them at the shore w/UUVs, drone boats, swarms, missiles, & mines layered into a 4 ring gauntlet from the strait to the beach. Taiwan can create this Hellscape. We explain how. warontherocks.com/2026/03/hellscape-taiwan-a-porcupine-defense-in-the-drone-age/

cnas.orgHellscape for TaiwanDeveloping strong, pragmatic and principled national security and defense policies.

27 Mar

You can read the @warontherocks.bsky.social article @mollykcam.bsky.social & I wrote above or the full @cnas.bsky.social report here: www.cnas.org/publications...

economist.comThere is plenty of scope for the Iran war to intensifyAmerica and Israel conduct air strikes against Iran while the regime blocks the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global energy supplies and pushing Gulf allies toward alignment.

21 Mar

Important @economist.com insight on the dismal options for ending the Iran war: America can’t reopen Hormuz, Iran can’t stop the airstrikes, & every escalation option is bad, explaining why there’s no clear path to a durable political solution. economist.com/briefing/202...

marketplace.orgHow low-cost drones are used in modern military strikesStacie Pettyjohn at the Center for a New American Security says Iran's Shahed-136 drones are mainly composed of off-the-shelf consumer tech, which makes them affordable to make at scale.

20 Mar

Cheap drones are exhausting expensive air defenses — that cost asymmetry is the whole problem. I spoke with @marketplace.org about Iran's Shahed threat, why it demands affordable defenses, & the combat debut of America's own answer: the LUCAS drone. www.marketplace.org/episode/2026...

Stacie Pettyjohn reposted

Caitlin Talmadge

@proftalmadge.bsky.social

foreignaffairs.comThe Hormuz MinefieldIn the strait, Iran holds the advantage—and America has no good options.

My latest on the Iranian threat to the Strait of Hormuz in @foreignaffairs.com www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/hormuz-...

ft.comUS has burned through ‘years’ of munitions since start of Iran warRapid depletion of stockpile including Tomahawk missiles raises pressure on Trump over cost of conflict

From the @financialtimes.com: The US burned through "years" of Tomahawk missiles in days of the Iran war. @cnas.bsky.social has analyzed the munitions problem repeatedly but DoD has failed to fix it. Now we're in a hole that can't be quickly filled. 🧵 www.ft.com/content/1471...

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Air defenses tell a similar story. DoD has consistently bought interceptors, but our data shows purchases have focused on expensive ballistic missile defense systems in relatively small quantities, neglecting air, cruise missile, and drone defenses.

cnas.orgPrecision and Posture: Defense Spending Trends and the FY23 Budget RequestDeveloping strong, pragmatic and principled national security and defense policies.

Three years of @cnas.bsky.social research on US munitions procurement & the defense industrial base. 📄 Precision and Posture (2022) www.cnas.org/publications... 📄 Production Is Deterrence (2023) www.cnas.org/publications... 📄 From Production Lines to Front Lines (2025) www.cnas.org/publications...

ft.comUS has burned through ‘years’ of munitions since start of Iran warRapid depletion of stockpile including Tomahawk missiles raises pressure on Trump over cost of conflict

The numbers: Navy bought ZERO new TLAMs in FY19, FY24, and FY25. Only 322 Tomahawks procured across all services in the past 5 years. Procurement has been wildly volatile — swinging from hundreds one year to nothing the next — preventing industry from maintaining production lines.

nytimes.comUkraine Reaches a Milestone: Making ‘China-Free’ Drones

Meanwhile antiship stockpiles were near zero for years before FY17. Now we're suddenly deploying missiles against Iranian ships and minelayers, drawing down stockpiles that were never large to begin with.

Stacie Pettyjohn reposted

Ulrike Franke

@rikefranke.eu

11 Mar

This is a very good approach. (And I say approach, rather than outcome, because the headline goes a bit far. But still: well done Ukraine!!) #drone www.nytimes.com/2026/03/11/w...

Stacie Pettyjohn reposted

Caitlin Talmadge

@proftalmadge.bsky.social

11 Mar

Pleased to speak with @economist.com for this excellent discussion of Iran's threat to the Strait of Hormuz www.economist.com/middle-east-...

economist.comCan America clear the Strait of Hormuz of Iran’s drones and mines?Escorting convoys of oil tanker with warships may give Iran juicy American targets

wsj.comU.S. Army Sends Ukraine-Tested Drones to Hit Iran’s DronesMerops drones, from a company owned by Eric Schmidt, are favored by Kyiv’s troops against Russian Shahed attacks.

9 Mar

The US Army is rushing Ukrainian cheap drone interceptors to the Middle East, which is a hugely welcome development. These are cost-effective, battlefield-tested solutions for defeating Shaheds & should proliferate quickly. www.wsj.com/world/u-s-ar...

cnas.orgCountering the SwarmThe counter-drone mission entails much more than simply air defense and cannot be relegated to traditional, isolated air defense formations.

9 Mar

But no single technology is enough to defeat even cheap drones like the Shahed. As Molly Campbell and I argue in our @cnas.bsky.social report, you need a layered defense system that adversaries can't easily route around. Full report www.cnas.org/publications...

rusi.orgOctopus Adds an Additional Layer to Ukraine’s Air DefencesThe value of the UK-Ukrainian drone interceptor is not in the characteristics of the munition, but in the process that brought it into being.

9 Mar

For more on how the cat-and-mouse game between Russian drones and Ukrainian defenses has evolved, check out this piece by Jack Watling www.rusi.org/explore-our-...

cnas.orgDeterrence at ScaleDeveloping strong, pragmatic and principled national security and defense policies.

6 Mar

U.S. defense indsutry is built for short, sharp wars not protracted ones. New from Jenny McArdle in the @cnas.bsky.social New American DIB series: allied manufacturing strength can close the gaps domestic industry can't fill fast enough. cnas.org/publications/commentary/deterrence-at-scale

cnas.orgThe New American Defense Industrial BaseThe U.S. defense industrial base has seen significant change over the past decade. CNAS will publish a series of essays written by a diverse set of experts

6 Mar

Check out this link for other essays from this series including by Susanna Blume, Veronica Daigle & Grace Newsom, & Frank Kendall. www.cnas.org/the-new-amer...

cnas.orgCNAS Insights | Can the United States Sustain Its War Against Iran?Developing strong, pragmatic and principled national security and defense policies.

6 Mar

The U.S. is winning against Iran, but burning through the exact munitions it would need most against China. New @cnas.bsky.social analysis from @philipsheers.bsky.social & I on the hidden costs of Operation Epic Fury & what comes next. cnas.org/publications/commentary/insights-sustaining-war-in-iran

Stacie Pettyjohn reposted

Becca Wasser

@beccawasser.bsky.social

3 Mar

Back to doing what I do best: pointing at things on maps. (It's a wargamer thing). I walked through Iran's retaliatory strikes, what it has left in the arsenal, and what the “big wave” of strikes Trump promised might mean with Bloomberg TV. www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/...

bloomberg.comWatch Iran Retaliates Following US-Israel Strikes - BloombergBloomberg Economics Defense Lead Becca Wasser discusses Iran's retaliation to US-Israeli strikes over the weekend, and what potential moves lie ahead from the Trump administration. She joins Kailey Le...

cnas.orgEyes in the SkyAirborne sensing and air battle management are distinct but intertwined tasks.

3 Mar

New @cnas.bsky.social report: In "Eyes in the Sky," @philipsheers.bsky.social explains why airborne battle management aircraft aren't just vital in the Middle East—they're essential for DoD's top priorities, from a war with China to defending the homeland. www.cnas.org/publications...

cnas.orgHellscape for TaiwanDeveloping strong, pragmatic and principled national security and defense policies.

26 Feb

@mollykcam.bsky.social & my new report: "Hellscape for Taiwan" We propose a layered drone defense—from 80 km out to the beaches—that could stop an invasion at the water's edge. 4 layers. Cross-domain fires. A theory of victory Taiwan can own. www.cnas.org/publications...

breakingdefense.comAs Dems push for briefing on El Paso incident, experts warn it could be the ‘tip of the iceberg’ - Breaking Defense“I think coordination has been lacking, and you're seeing a lot more sort of cowboy behavior, which could be problematic,” Stacie Pettyjohn, a senior fellow and director of the defense program at the ...

20 Feb

New from @breakingdefense.com by Michael Marrow & Val Insinna. The El Paso shootdown highlights the hard work ahead to safely implement new counter-drone authorities for DoD, DHS, & local agencies. breakingdefense.com/2026/02/as-d...

20 Feb

I noted that "coordination has been lacking" increasing the risk of "cowboy behavior."

csis.orgRussian and Ukrainian Battlefield Adaptations with Dara Massicot and Kateryna Bondar | Russian Roulette | CSIS PodcastsMax and Maria had a livestreamed conversation in the CSIS Brack Studio with Dara Massicot and Kateryna Bondar to discuss Russian and Ukrainian battlefield adaptations and technological innovations.

Excellent episode of the Russian Roulette podcast on Ukrainian and Russian wartime adaptations w/@maxbergmann.bsky.social, @msnegovaya.bsky.social. @massdara.bsky.social, and Kateryna Bondar 🎧 csis.org/podcasts/russian-roulette/russian-and-ukrainian-battlefield-adaptations-dara-massicot-and-kateryna

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csis.orgHow Russia Is Reshaping Command and Control for AI-Enabled WarfareKateryna Bondar examines how Russia conceptualizes, builds, and adapts its command and control (C2) architecture under wartime pressures, in the first installment of a series on Russia’s use of AI in ...

And don't miss Kateryna Bondar's CSIS report on how Russia has abandoned it monolithic AI-enabled C2 ambitions in favor of tactical systems that solve immediate battlefield problems. www.csis.org/analysis/how...

The Pentagon would be wise to take note of Russia's approach as it pursues its own AI-enabled C2 — start with what works at the edge, not what looks good on a briefing slide (with lots of lightning bolts and lines). See CRS report for more on JADC2 www.everycrsreport.com/files/2022-0...

cnas.orgEvolution Not RevolutionDeveloping strong, pragmatic and principled national security and defense policies.

Key point: the tradeoff between decentralized innovation (Ukraine's strength) versus the ability to rapidly scale adaptations into fielded systems (Russia's advantage). I explored this dynamic early in the war in my @cnas.bsky.social report on drone warfare:

foreignaffairs.comHow Russia RecoveredWhat the Kremlin is learning from the war in Ukraine.

Also highly recommend @massdara.bsky.social's Foreign Affairs article on how Russia has regrouped — building a learning ecosystem that turns tactical adaptations into long-term institutional reforms. foreignaffairs.com/russia/how-russia-recovered

youtube.comU.S. Defense at an Inflection Point: The 2026 National Defense StrategyYouTube video by Center for a New American Security (CNAS)

30 Jan

ICYMI: The Pentagon released its defense strategy last Friday. Our @cnas.bsky.social panel—@beccawasser.bsky.social, Mara Karlin, Dustin Walker & me—broke down the document and graded it. The results weren't pretty. Watch our analysis here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=k3wr...