seen a lot of people say celebrity traitors is converting them to being pro-romesh and i do agree that i basically get why broadcasters put him on everything much more now. a lot of the problem is just there are like 3 rotating tv formats (buddy travel show, quiz show, panel show) anybody touches
--The #BSGOTYs2026 nomination round: 2001--
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bolsonaro camp claiming they’d be doing better but their average supporter is hospitalised by covid 3 times a year. lula camp countering that average bolsonaro supporter is hospitalised by covid 0 times a year. covidy jair, who is hospitalised 10000 times, is an outlier and should not be counted
NEW headline voting intention from Ipsos
📊Labour on 32% with a lead of +8 – the largest Labour lead Ipsos have recorded this parliament
📊Conservatives take second place the first time since June 2025
📊Reform UK down 3 points and Greens down 5
we need to bring back being embarrassed of stuff like this. so frequent on bbc. if I go to a meeting and don’t know about something I’m paid to know about, I’m embarrassed and make sure I’ve found out about it pretty sharpish
wouldn’t have predicted this when they were both announced but the most fun I’ve had with 2026 games so far this year are 100% splatoon raiders and galactic racer.
struggled to get into the football this year tbh. Leicester being depressing not helpful as I defo need a bit of tribalism but also: Man City punishment outstanding has meant everything is false and weird, long international break meaning no real momentum (actually didn’t mind those games tho)
champions league league stage quite hard to care about. however, Bayern vs Arsenal in on the television. It’s okay I’ll still keep drinking that garbage
next burnham policy suggestion: if you don’t wait for people to get off the train carriage and give them a clear path in which to do so, you don’t get to get on this one you have to wait for the next train instead
Mathematician Hannah Fry has been in the spotlight on Celebrity Traitors. But did you know that in 2018, she wrote for Prospect about how AI is prone to mistakes?
the problem with this norm netflix documentary is it’d be better if it was just all the clips in full back to back with no in between bits with anybody else at all and tbh it’s only almost just that
the thing on this series of traitors of people announcing they’re a traitor, begging to be recruited and/or just not really getting into being a traitor in the turret… it has not helped this series get going. people need to be more in the spirit of it
This is really interesting, and basically vindicates the v different approach Labour took towards the Greens in Holborn & St Pancras vs Gorton & Denton.
We've done some polling at @persuasionuk.bsky.social on the Holborn by-election, looking beyond how people voted to why they voted the way they did, which I discuss exclusively in the @newstatesman1913.bsky.social this afternoon:
www.newstatesman.com/politics/pol...
i just think when people are completely wild and unhealthy about zohran mamdani, and a lot of people are completely wild and unhealthy about him, the contrast illustrates how good he is at the gig
England vs Czech Republic in the Nations League or Leicester vs Stevenage (currently losing btw) in the EFL Trophy
they’re calling it the The Hard To Justify Not Just Watching Something We Both Like double bill in this flat
a rare photo of sean connery signed by roger moore reposted
54% of people had formed an opinion of Andy Burnham's speech
Good speech: 37%
Bad speech: 17%
Don't know 45%
Labour 69-4 (+65)
LibDem 49-8 (+41)
Green 43-11 (+32)
Cons 30-27 (+3)
Reform 19-39 (-20)
Remain 2016 50-9 (+41)
Leave 2016 27-30 (-3)
Opinium latest poll for Observer with Labour 30% (+2), Reform 25% (+1), Conservatives 17% (-), Green 11% (+1) Libdem 9% (-1). This pollster last had Labour at 30% in November 2024. 30/9/26 after Labour conference.
www.opinium.com/resource-cen...
Ok, some obvious and important methodological caveats before Lab folk get too excited.
Obviously we are forcibly exposing people to Burnham’s speech here, unfiltered and uncontested. In reality, most will not pay that sort of attention! Plus of course persuasion effects will decay.
But…
Some persuasion effects on policy: Burnham’s arguments moved more people to support national care service funded by triple lock change, as well as water. (the changes in other areas here weren’t stat significant, though already high). The PM as 'political teacher'.
Among whom did most of this change come from? Fairly across the board but biggest impact was among those he's gaining from generally: more progressive voters, northern voters.
Though bump in favourabilities in Scotland (Brexit potent here) & Wales matters given under-performance here in polling.
How about voting intention? All videos pushed up Labour VI, but three stood out: economic power/control, water nationalisation and social care/triple lock clip, boosting it by 8-10 points!
This is *genuinely impressive* for such a test, esp in an age of cynicism to politicians.
First finding: all clips we tested raised Burnham’s NET favorables by a lot, essentially doubling them.
But the public control/ownership themes in particular really smashed it. This is, once again, Burnham’s best performing bit imo. See it consistently in qual and quant.
the thing about Burnham’s speech yesterday is if you had asked your tool of choice to make a hideous AI bingo card for an Andy Burnham speech based entirely off the arguments in Head North you’d have close to a full house. the direction is so clearly defined
a rare photo of sean connery signed by roger moore reposted
In this week’s voting intention, Labour's lead widens as Reform fall to their lowest in over 18 months.
🌹 LAB 27% (+1)
🌳 CON 22% (-1)
⏩ REF 21% (-1)
🔶 LIB DEM 11% (-)
🟢 GREEN 9% (+1)
⚫ RES: 6% (-)
🟡 SNP 3% (+1)
⚪️ OTH 1% (-)
N = 2,041 | Fieldwork 25-29/9 | Changes w 18/09
real challenge will be keeping it up when every party (including for some reason the predictably useless libs who want to simultaneously claim to be the party of tax cuts, say they’d do social care faster and not touch triple lock) start screaming he’s cutting pensions. but initial reaction is good!
i know a lot of people have been long invested in the idea that andy burnham is a bit crap at politics, and with the caveat I know polling this far out isn’t the whole thing, but taken together with his electoral record is there a chance he’s maybe alright at it
i know a lot of people have been long invested in the idea that andy burnham is a bit crap at politics, and with the caveat I know polling this far out isn’t the whole thing, but taken together with his electoral record is there a chance he’s maybe alright at it
there’s crazy head winds and things I don’t like and things that could go pretty badly wrong but i just struggle to see how the idea he is completely useless as a political operator (which maybe mainly stems from 2015 leadership election?) could survive contact with the evidence