Steve Cicala

Welcome to the new arrivals. Here's a starter pack of Energy/Environmental economists to get you going: bsky.app/starter-pack...

"Why not buy a car that is better, cheaper and basically gives you more technology?” Detroit did this to themselves in response to Japanese innovation in the 80s, harming both US consumers and manufacturing. They're doing it again. Compete, don't protect. www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...

Further evidence that substitutability between AI providers will seriously constrain their ability to recover the massive investments they're making: www.nber.org/papers/w3595...

In one day, two politicians - Bolsonaro in Brazil and Vucic in Serbia - with ties to Trump have lost surprise elections thanks to high turnout. The rise of the international far-right is not inevitable.

The question is: Why did Trump derail peace talks?

Agree with all of this, but one thing that can be inferred from the piece, but is never discussed: The Dutch have Kushner's phone because the GRU had it. And the GRU certainly has more than Kushner's phone. Trump is notoriously dismissive of IT security. Is it conceivable they *don't* have it?

This is one of the most holy sh*t stories I’ve ever read in my life. www.vanityfair.com/story/jared-...

Those in North Carolina who are voting by mail can track their ballots at: northcarolina.ballottrax.net/voter/ #ncpol

I look forward to reporting on Putin's offer to host Trump and Xi in Yalta, and Trump's enthusiasm for the idea, even after being informed that Yalta is located in occupied Crimea. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/19/u...

More seriously. There is already a large literature on the economic effects of Brexit. It would make more sense for Treasury to summarise and publicise what this work finds than try and reinvent the wheel by conducting their own study - which would inevitably be subject to claims of politicisation.

If you're not at the table, you're on the menu.

So, as it Turns Out, America Lost the Cold War: "There is no mistaking who is in the driver’s seat in this relationship: Putin. There is no mistaking who is taking orders from the Kremlin. There is no mistaking which country benefits and which pays the price."

And Tommy, basic operational security is to not identify yourself on camera wearing the khakis from your Patriot Front uniform when you were masked, terrorizing black folks on the DC metro.

Goodbye Section 230. These are not platforms. They're media outlets that should bear legal liability for what they publish, given their discretion to not publish completely legal communications.

I absolutely LOVE this coming the same week that Hall and Woodford were awarded the Nobel Prize for turning economics away from mindless regressions to predict inflation. The admin keeps finding new ways to turn back the clock on policymaking.

He lived a full life. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/14/o...

This is indeed, nuts.

Just so you understand the scale of betrayal: first, our "partners" didn't warn Ukraine about the incoming ballistic missiles, so the air raid alert wasn't activated before impact, robbing people of their chance to survive. ​Then, Starlink was restricted to stop working at speeds above 100 mph.

Completely sensible to import the most energy-intensive goods so long as your energy system is constrained. Perhaps focus on the regulatory issues preventing grid integration and renewables financing.

Billions of dollars’ worth of contracts predicting oil would fall and the S&P 500 would rise were placed about 15 minutes before Trump announced a U-turn on Iran in a post on Truth Social. CFTC staff began to investigate...then were told to lay off. www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

Backwards induction for the win.

The only thing this headline lacks is the phrase, “in a chainsaw-involved incident.”

I especially appreciate that my Swiss colleague, Timo Boppart, gave the presentation to further deepen Americans’ confusion about the difference between Sweden and Switzerland.

“Anyone who, through betrayal, stupidity or for money, seeks to weaken Ukraine in its defense against Russian aggression is acting directly against their own people, their country’s security and its sovereignty,” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said. #Ukraine

Running on accountability serves two ends: 1) At least some of the people currently breaking the law think twice. Deterrence is the only tool Democrats currently have. 2) The actual execution of accountability becomes the mere follow-through on a campaign pledge. That is much tougher to stop.

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never the wrong time for this classic

There is one sense in which economics is the enemy of the left, and that is the existence of tradeoffs. We provide prices on the menu of policy options. A common problem on the left is to insist that these prices do not exist and that we can have everything without anyone paying for it.

There are some People Who Know Better seriously entertaining price control policies under the thinking that the nutters are going to be running the show, so it’s better to get on board so you’ve got a seat at the table. And when they’re voted out because their policies predictably crash? Pass.

Very curious to know which Western powers apologized for anything in the postwar period, and which of those apologies he would like to reverse.

Switzerland's glacier report 2026 is out. Swiss glaciers have lost 5% of their ice volume this year. Only the last 5 years accounted for nearly 20% of the total ice loss across Switzerland. The numbers are devastating. Full report → doi.glamos.ch/pubs/annualr...

Not that I think car companies are dumb enough to make long-term investments based on the whims of this executive, but… Stimulating gasoline demand with weaker fuel economy standards is not going to help lower prices.

Deterrence is the only instrument at our disposal. The sooner Democrats learn to use it, the less damage there will be.

We must “recognize the evil that is being carried out in our name and fight it…We must recognize that in abandoning the words of Deuteronomy and the Statue of Liberty, we are losing our soul as a nation.” — Cardinal Robert McElroy, archbishop of Washington open.substack.com/pub/lettersf...

Paging Covert and Kellogg.

Even if you have zero concern for climate change, it is malpractice as a policymaker to do anything but run as far and fast as you can from a fossil fuel-based economy. Why would you leave yourself so exposed to this madness given the alternatives? www.wsj.com/livecoverage...

The Donkey Sanctuary and Royal Opera House are well-known aliases for Parliament, so I find this mathematically impossible.

Let us not forget the real victims when a rogue wet lab releases a deadly pathogen: The staff who conceived, designed, built, and operated the lab. The whole thing really bummed them out.

Ah yes. The widely heralded economic policies of “presidents in the 70s.”

Witkoff is even more inept than we thought. A good examination of the role of the White House front man for US efforts to end the war in Ukraine from the @KyivIndependent kyivindependent.com/exclusive-uk...

This, but also for the US.

“If the inheritocracy looms, it has clearly not yet arrived,” argue Eric Zwick and Owen Zidar. The university professors believe that the narrative surrounding the bequest of financial assets is flawed bit.ly/4rzWfD3 Illustration: Dan Williams