Thomas Maddock

📢 The @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social appoints a new director: @anandmenon.bsky.social will succeed @cergrant.bsky.social as director, taking over at the start of 2027.

When @thomasmaddock.bsky.social & I predicted in March that the Trump/Netanyahu war on Iran would be "a prolonged nightmare", we were unfortunately right. Whether Trump carries out his latest threats of genocide or not, he has done huge harm to the US's allies in Europe, the Middle East & Asia.

10 years on from the Brexit vote, the UK’s relations with the EU and its place in the world have changed vastly. My colleague @antonspisak.bsky.social, has brought together 15 expert essays on the state of UK-EU relations today. Highly recommend reading. Check out some highlights in his 🧵

Essential reading on the econ damage done by Brexit. Read this analysis from my colleagues @johnspringford.bsky.social & @antonspisak.bsky.social, 10 years after the referendum. 👇

Europe needs to rapidly improve its deterrence. A new @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social / Hanns Seidel Foundation paper by @armida.bsky.social outlines key steps European governments can take in the next 1-2 years to accelerate rearmament, readiness and deterrence efforts. Read here: buff.ly/rwfLU1S

@centreeuropeanref.bsky.social paper by @sandertordoir.bsky.social & Brad Setser @cfr.org Germany is ground zero of the second #Chinashock, but Berlin is not fighting back, even as the shock erodes the country’s engineering sectors that are vital to its economic security. Read here: buff.ly/2OizisL

🎙️ “Are the goals that the EU is setting out realistic? And what should be prioritized in governance reform objectives?” @thomasmaddock.bsky.social asked @schamseu.bsky.social in the latest @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social podcast, listen here:

🎙️ Listen to our new #CERpodcast ‘Unpacking Europe’ discussing renewed tensions in transatlantic #trade between the EU and the US, @antonspisak.bsky.social spoke with @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social on 5/5/26. Listen here:

New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight: ‘The EU is trying to speak the language of power in #Africa, but what is it saying?’, by @katherinepye.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/7AYrIVt

🎙️Listen to our new #CERpodcast ‘Unpacking Europe’ discussing Hungary's landslide election outcome, @zecsaky.bsky.social spoke with Zsuzsanna Szelényi🎙️ Listen here:

What does Orban’s departure mean for #Hungary and for the EU? 🇭🇺 🇪🇺 New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @zecsaky.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/xfjtSOf

New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight: 'Energy shock 2.0: Lessons from 2022 for the #Hormuz crisis', by @elisabettaco.bsky.social and @johnspringford.bsky.social. #energyshock Read here: buff.ly/7gKy4VB

Two of the latest polls, from previously quite accurate pollsters, show a Tisza lead of ~20pp in Hungary. But can the opposition really win? Why is Orban on the backfoot? And what happens after April 12? 🇭🇺Hungary elections thread 🧵

The failure of the #WTO 'reform ministerial' exposed just how hard meaningful reform has become. But it also revealed where the multilateral trade system may be heading next. New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @antonspisak.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/ozfBGS1

US president Donald Trump seems not to have considered what the wider effects of war on #Iran might be, or its winners and losers; Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu may not care. CER insight by @cerianbond.bsky.social and @thomasmaddock.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/I42gf7q

Applications are open for the 13th Clara Marina O’Donnell fellowship, watch here for @thomasmaddock.bsky.social's tips to candidates. Full details here - buff.ly/3vV64SZ Start date: October 2026 for six months Pay: London Living Wage Applications in by: 09/04/26

How much did #Brexit affect immigration to the UK? @jdportes.bsky.social and @johnspringford.bsky.social estimate that it made a modest difference to overall numbers but led to a dramatic shift in origin in a new @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight. Read here: buff.ly/u1TuLFx

Europe has made real progress in protecting its technological base from Chinese takeovers. The risk is that China will now invest in EU countries with weak oversight like Hungary, argue @sandertordoir.bsky.social and @james-r-green.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/JTsL3yP

The EU wants trade to do geopolitics, but the #Mercosur deal is a reminder that signing isn't delivering. New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @antonspisak.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/IESx33T

"The gaps between Paris and Berlin mean Berlin is having to look to other partners," @thomasmaddock.bsky.social, a fellow at the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social in London, told AFP.

That’s a wrap on a great (and chilly) week in DC ! In town as the Clara Marina O’Donnell Fellow, meeting people across think-tanks and policy circles on transatlantic issues and the Middle East. Huge thanks to @brookings.edu Centre on the United States and Europe team for hosting me.

The world has changed since the 2016 #Brexit vote. In response, the UK & EU need to be more willing to change fundamental aspects of their post-Brexit relationship. New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social/ KAS UK & Ireland policy brief by @cerianbond.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/vQRCfrT

#Hungary holds elections in April. The stakes couldn’t be higher – for Budapest, for Brussels, and for democracy itself. Can the opposition win and restore democracy? 🇭🇺 🇪🇺 New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @zecsaky.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/MtJXrKQ

If this fails, there is no immediate plan B, write Stephen Paduano & @sandertordoir.bsky.social in a new @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight. Read here: buff.ly/GM6RkHv

The EU wants a bigger role in resolving the Israel-Palestine conflict, but internal splits and damaged credibility hold it back. Ahead of tomorrow's European Council discussions on EU Middle East policy, you can read my thoughts on how the EU can start rebuilding its influence: 👉

The French have always believed in tempering #freetrade with industrial policy, the protection of industry and the principle of préférence européenne. 🇪🇺 🇫🇷 New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @cergrant.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/vrFwWbE

#France has a very weak government with an uncertain future, yet it remains a dominant force in EU policy-making. How does one explain this paradox? 🇪🇺 🇫🇷 New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @cergrant.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/vrFwWbE

🇺🇸 | The 2025 US National Security Strategy aligns more closely with Donald Trump’s worldview than his first. But its contradictions will limit its effectiveness. Read Laurel Rapp's latest analysis for Chatham House⤵️

The European Competitiveness Fund risks pitting economy security and economic growth against each other. In a new @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social /Swedish Enterprise policy brief, @aslak.bsky.social & @zach-meyers.bsky.social propose a toolkit to unlock the ECF's potential buff.ly/GyzXI4o

What kind of European security structures might replace the current tottering architecture? 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social/ @uclei.bsky.social policy brief by @cerianbond.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/gzMAkk4

Global #trade policy is now dominated by great power politics, putting Europe under pressure. The EU will have to accommodate the US, confront China and derisk from both. 🇪🇺 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @aslak.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/OPBZCaY

There is an expansive literature on the causes of the rise of #populism. Its lesson? Policies designed to appease populism are unlikely to be effective. That battle can only be won through argument. New @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social insight by @johnspringford.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/O2SoUok

Simplifying EU regulation and a harder line on member-states’ gold-plating of EU law would cut compliance costs and boost growth. New CER/Martens Centre policy brief by @aslak.bsky.social, @elisabettaco.bsky.social, @zach-meyers.bsky.social & @sandertordoir.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/Rb9hOiI

We are delighted to welcome @thomasmaddock.bsky.social to the @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social as our 12th Clara Marina O’Donnell fellow. buff.ly/N4jQ49t