Thomas Zimmer

steady.pageThe Right’s Fascistic Fever Dreams Are a Sign of WeaknessMAGA wants us to believe that Trump can simply declare “martial law” and wipe away the system - but it’s just not true. A threat assessment before the midterms.

The Right’s Fascistic Fever Dreams Are a Sign of Weakness MAGA wants us to believe that Trump can simply declare “martial law” and wipe away the system - but it’s just not true. A threat assessment before the midterms. My new piece:

ICYMI yesterday: A threat assessment before the midterms. MAGA wants us to believe that Trump can simply declare “martial law” and wipe away the system - but it’s just not true. The Right’s Fascistic Fever Dreams Are a Sign of Weakness

But that is 2028. For the midterms, I struggle to see Trump becoming the energetic, cunning leader his most extreme followers wish he were. The MAGA regime can, and likely will, cause tremendous damage. But that is not the same as consolidating authoritarian rule.

A past pattern is not a guarantee that the regime won’t ultimately break through somehow. But it is a crucial reminder: Being lawless, immoral, and violent does not make the Trumpists omnipotent. Please consider subscribing:

The most likely scenario for the midterms, I believe, is that Trump will once again hamper the efforts of the most extreme voices in and around the White House by displaying a similar lack of discipline and decisiveness.

Unfortunately, the situation might be very different in 2028. His ego and narcissism will be a much bigger factor two years from now, when Trump himself is about to lose power; he also understands he needs to be president in order to avoid accountability.

What is the role of Donald Trump himself in all of this? It is a weird form of personalism we are confronted with: Personalism with a lazy, mentally and physically exhausted, increasingly delusional leader at the top who doesn’t want to be bothered with the actual work of governing.

In key moments, when competing factions within his government were engaged in a struggle for supremacy that would define the trajectory of his regime, Trump either hesitated – or simply couldn’t be bothered to pay attention, participate, and make a decision either way.

This pattern stands in contrast to the idea of Trumpism’s irresistible march towards consolidated autocracy. One reason why the Trumpists, in key moments, weren’t willing and/or able to institute despotism: There is no consensus inside the MAGA government over this sort of escalation.

There are not only different ideological camps within this regime. There are also fault lines defined by temperament. The different factions aren’t entirely in agreement about how and how far they should escalate – they differ in terms of appetite for radicalism.

How we interpret the past 20 months of Trumpism in power shapes our expectations regarding the midterm elections. Has the country been irresistibly marching towards a Trump dictatorship? Will this be just another step in that direction? I don’t think so.

Several times over the past twenty months the Trumpists seemed poised to vanquish the democratic opposition and break through whatever obstacles the constitutional order was still placing in their path – but then were unwilling and/or unable to force that next step.

MAGA extremists are fantasizing about Trump ending the American Republic. Faced with an election they know they are almost guaranteed to lose, they want us to believe Trump can wipe away the system if he finally dares to the pull the lever that has “Dictatorship” written on it.

Let us not help them perpetuate such authoritarian propaganda. It is not true. There is no such lever. These fascistic fantasies of mass violence are acutely dangerous. But they also reek of desperation rather than strength.

Thomas Zimmer reposted

Replying to @thomaszimmer.bsky.social

The Trumpist lust for authoritarian control is limitless. But the gulf between those desires vs. the realities of a pluralistic society and complex political system remains vast. In that space, politics continues, resistance can thrive, there is ample opportunity and agency to push back.

republik.chMidterms in den USA: Wendepunkt in der US-Politik?Wird Präsident Trump sich bremsen lassen? Am Podiumsgespräch am 26. Oktober wird dieser Frage nachgegangen.

Happening tonight, in Zurich - come join us!

Thomas Zimmer@thomaszimmer.bsky.social

In case someone in or around Zurich, Switzerland follows me on here: On Monday night, I’ll be discussing the political situation in the United States right before the midterms - and the lessons the rest of the world can/should learn from the situation in the U.S. - with @republik.ch Come join us!

@rothschildmd.bsky.social

Let us find the balance: Alarmed and vigilant but not panicked; determined, not despairing; insisting on analyzing the situation as it actually is - instead of bowing to the assertion that reality does not apply to these dangerous clowns.

Thomas Zimmer@thomaszimmer.bsky.social

Thomas Zimmer reposted

Mike Rothschild

Do not grant Trump and his inner circle powers that don't exist. He has no ability to "cancel" the election or declare martial law and make the results go away. It's not a question of "who's going to stop him." It's that there is no mechanism to do it, and any order to do so has no validity.

Thomas Zimmer@thomaszimmer.bsky.social

Thomas Zimmer reposted

[Christopher M. Federico]

@chrispps.bsky.social

excellent 🧵; beyond the basic points made here about the limited institutional affordances Trump et al have to enact whatever kind of autocracy they lust for, it also feels like they hope at some level that a media simulacrum of authoritarianism will effectively substitute for the real thing

Thomas Zimmer@thomaszimmer.bsky.social

MAGA’s theory of power boils down to making big, scary proclamations that are not actually connected to plans they can implement. They can, and likely will, cause tremendous damage. But that is not the same as consolidating authoritarian rule.

Thomas Zimmer@thomaszimmer.bsky.social

Thomas Zimmer reposted

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Thomas Zimmer@thomaszimmer.bsky.social

I have very little patience for doomsaying and catastrophizing. The assertion of irresistible power is itself a key element of the authoritarian assault. We must not help them perpetuate it by giving in to pseudo-savvy cynicism and defeatism.

This pattern stands in contrast to the idea of Trumpism’s irresistible march towards consolidated autocracy. A past pattern is not a guarantee that the regime won’t ultimately break through somehow. But being lawless, immoral, and violent does not make the Trumpists omnipotent.

We are faced with a somewhat paradoxical situation. MAGA weakness is a source of radicalization. When delusion, authoritarian desires, ideological zealotry, ineptitude, and mounting desperation all combine, things are bound to escalate further. That is dangerous!

They will keep trying. But that doesn’t mean they will succeed. I would look at the situation differently if the country had been irresistibly marching towards a Trump dictatorship over the past 20 months. That, however, is not the dynamic I see.

While this step would undoubtedly constitute a major escalation – one Trump has so far been reluctant to force, despite all the bluster and unhinged rhetoric! –, invoking the Insurrection Act is not akin to waving a magic wand that instantly vanquishes all opposition.

I am not talking about "norms" or making a "the courts will save us" argument. I am saying: As a matter of practical reality, the idea that the minute Trump invokes the Insurrection Act all resistance is futile, Trump has won, Game Over is nonsense. That's just regime propaganda.

What about the Insurrection Act though? It is obvious why it appeals to Trump: He undoubtedly imagines it as a kind of cheat code that would make him omnipotent and allow him to establish MAGA dictatorship in an instance. But that is just not true.

The Insurrection Act does not suspend the constitution and civil liberties, it does not establish martial law or a military dictatorship. Federal troops patrolling the streets would still be constrained by the law, restricted to regular law enforcement powers.

My argument is not that Trump wouldn’t do anything illegal or unconstitutional (lol!). But it matters that there is no constitutional or legal pathway to martial law because it means there is no avenue for Trump to exploit, no realistic existing mechanism for him to abuse, no lever to pull.

That simply makes it far more difficult to apply the kind of pressure the Trumpists would need to apply, to generate the kind of force necessary, to get enough people to comply and enough institutions to acquiesce.

There are undoubtedly influential people in and around the government who lust for a chance to violently oppress any opposition. Stephen Miller, for instance, has been urging for such measures for a long time. He has been restlessly searching for ways to further militarize the conflict.

But there is no basis in the Constitution or in the law for Trump to declare martial law. Most importantly, the president has no authority whatsoever to suspend or violate the Constitution. That matters greatly, even when we are dealing with the most lawless president in history.

Fueling these fascistic dreams of using the military to install Trump as a dictator is a sense of having their backs against the wall. Direct violent oppression is a sign of weakness. Modern authoritarian regimes are always hoping to avoid such escalation.

Thomas Zimmer reposted

steady.pageTrump Is Not Some All-Powerful God-KingTo subvert the election and get from here to consolidated authoritarian rule, the Trumpists depend on cynicism, acquiescence, and defeatism in the democratic camp

Weekend reading: I wrote about the key challenge of finding the balance between being justifiably alarmed – and drowning in doomsaying and defeatism, which is exactly what the Trumpists rely on to bring the system down. This week’s piece: