[Christopher M. Federico] reposted
[Christopher M. Federico]
[Christopher M. Federico]
@chrispps.bsky.social
midwest academic, political science + psychology / inveterate fan of The Fall / cat enthusiast / boring social democrat / photographer / fix yr hearts or die
8.4K followers1.4K following7K posts
[Christopher M. Federico] reposted
"A Genocide Was Committed in Sudan’s El Fasher. A Year Later, Survivors Recount the Horrors" The RSF killed, raped, & disappeared thousands as they overran North Darfur’s capital in Oct 2025. No one has been held accountable in the year since, writes Eisa Dafallah. zeteo.com/p/a-genocide...
[Christopher M. Federico] reposted
[Christopher M. Federico] reposted
[Christopher M. Federico] reposted
In fact I will say the Earnest and Pious Charismatic Ethnic Minority political figure (AOC, Mamdani, El-Sayed) has been a pretty good bet for the American left so far, whereas the Disaffected Gruff White Guy Showcasing True Masculinity (Fetterman, Platner) has been a worse bet. Just an observation.
Yeah start insinuating he has morning chai rather than coffee, say that he knocks things for 6 rather than hits a home run, allege that he is generally a clean living good boy who loves his mother and prays every Friday (pejorative).
“you should not give a damn what happens in other major democracies” is the epitome of the glib self-hating cosmopolitanism of a significant segment of the US commentariat
I just think Matt's wrong about this. We're at a point in our technological development where a ton of problems spill over national borders--if Flavio Bolsonaro burns down the Amazon, that will flood houses in Miami.
[Christopher M. Federico] reposted
BREAKING: Judge Reyes issues a preliminary injunction in the East Potomac Golf Course case, blocking more tree removal and requiring 10-day notice "before making any irreparable modification to any forms or features" of the park. Background: www.lawdork.com/p/golf-argum...
[Christopher M. Federico] reposted
[Christopher M. Federico] reposted
[Christopher M. Federico] reposted
"Under Brazilian federal law, all legislators have immunity...To run for President, Bolsonaro decided not to run for his Senate seat. Now, after losing the Presidential election, he no longer has legislative immunity when his Senate term expires in January 2027." Very Special Episode of no amnesty
Flávio Bolsonaro had his passport confiscated by the Brazilian fed police as his brother Eduardo told him to flee to the US. He is tied to paramilitary gangs, is being investigated & lost his legislative immunity when he left the Senate to run for president. paydayreport.com/brazilian-fe...
[Christopher M. Federico] reposted
NEW: As expected, on a 2-1 vote, the Ninth Circuit dismisses DOJ's appeal in the US v. California case over DOJ's claims relating to "likely noncitizen" voting. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
NEW: In rare Sunday arguments, appeals court judges skeptical of DOJ’s California election lawsuit. The lawsuits in California and Alaska are expected to fail — but they also show how far A.G. Todd Blanche will go to advance Trump’s aims. Tonight, at Law Dork:
[Christopher M. Federico] reposted
I agree with this in broad strokes, but the underlying connective tissue here is more of a character problem: this administration is simply bad at authoritarianism. Their policy judgment and execution has been ham-handed and incompetent because *they* are ham-handed and incompetent
Three moments broke Trump 2.0: 1) Kimmel and other attempted censorship after Charlie Kirk. Made public see the attack on speech. 2) Minnesota anti-ICE protests, Goode and Pretti killings. Made public see the attack on rights. 3) Iran war. Made public see bad foreign policy affects them directly.
[Christopher M. Federico] reposted
I would bet cash money that this was the very first time this man has ever darkened the doorstep of a Cheesecake Factory
You really need to work hard to be the most obsequious member of Trump’s cabinet — by, for instance, eating lunch at Cheesecake Factory and alerting Fox Business, so they can interview you in defense of Obama’s joke about the White House decor. Well done Secretary Bessent! Your move, Doug Burgum!
[Christopher M. Federico] reposted
I do also think that empirical research *generally* sheds reasonable doubt on whether political professionals accurately predict what issue messages -- for example, the anti-trans ones that consultants seem to be recommending to some Democratic candidates this cycle -- actually land, i.e.,
Good essay here from @juliaazari.bsky.social. Since Julia is in part asking for other social scientists to weigh in here, I thought I'd add some thoughts that have been germinating in my head for while. The main point is that the base of evidence that anti-trans ads 'work' is paper thin. (1/2)
Good essay here from @juliaazari.bsky.social. Since Julia is in part asking for other social scientists to weigh in here, I thought I'd add some thoughts that have been germinating in my head for while. The main point is that the base of evidence that anti-trans ads 'work' is paper thin. (1/2)
Social scientists have lent our names to calls for electoral system change and rule of law, because of the findings of our disciplines. We should do the same for anti-trans ads, which have dubious benefit and demonstrable harm. My latest at GP/BP goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/social-sci...
Good essay here from @juliaazari.bsky.social. Since Julia is in part asking for other social scientists to weigh in here, I thought I'd add some thoughts that have been germinating in my head for while. The main point is that the base of evidence that anti-trans ads 'work' is paper thin. (1/2)
Social scientists have lent our names to calls for electoral system change and rule of law, because of the findings of our disciplines. We should do the same for anti-trans ads, which have dubious benefit and demonstrable harm. My latest at GP/BP goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/social-sci...
Good essay here from @juliaazari.bsky.social. Since Julia is in part asking for other social scientists to weigh in here, I thought I'd add some thoughts that have been germinating in my head for while. The main point is that the base of evidence that anti-trans ads 'work' is paper thin. (1/2)
Social scientists have lent our names to calls for electoral system change and rule of law, because of the findings of our disciplines. We should do the same for anti-trans ads, which have dubious benefit and demonstrable harm. My latest at GP/BP goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/social-sci...
What is often ignored are results that point in a different direction, toward people's expressed attitudes about other aspects of trans issues -- e.g., mass publics often express wide support for the broad principle of equality, (11/n) www.hrc.org/resources/tr...
Good essay here from @juliaazari.bsky.social. Since Julia is in part asking for other social scientists to weigh in here, I thought I'd add some thoughts that have been germinating in my head for while. The main point is that the base of evidence that anti-trans ads 'work' is paper thin. (1/2)
Social scientists have lent our names to calls for electoral system change and rule of law, because of the findings of our disciplines. We should do the same for anti-trans ads, which have dubious benefit and demonstrable harm. My latest at GP/BP goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/social-sci...
One reason why issue voting is difficult for many voters is that individuals often have complex / ambivalent beliefs about an issue, which do not always point in the same direction and make survey responses unstable. (8/n)
Good essay here from @juliaazari.bsky.social. Since Julia is in part asking for other social scientists to weigh in here, I thought I'd add some thoughts that have been germinating in my head for while. The main point is that the base of evidence that anti-trans ads 'work' is paper thin. (1/2)
Social scientists have lent our names to calls for electoral system change and rule of law, because of the findings of our disciplines. We should do the same for anti-trans ads, which have dubious benefit and demonstrable harm. My latest at GP/BP goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/social-sci...
Stepping back, it's also generally the consensus of political scientists that *most* voters lack the information and engagement to be issue voters, regardless of issue. The kind of voter whose party preferences are weak enough to be swayed may not even be clued in enough to receive messages (7/n)
Good essay here from @juliaazari.bsky.social. Since Julia is in part asking for other social scientists to weigh in here, I thought I'd add some thoughts that have been germinating in my head for while. The main point is that the base of evidence that anti-trans ads 'work' is paper thin. (1/2)
Social scientists have lent our names to calls for electoral system change and rule of law, because of the findings of our disciplines. We should do the same for anti-trans ads, which have dubious benefit and demonstrable harm. My latest at GP/BP goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/social-sci...
But experimental results for an ad don't matter of the issue is not important or low on the agenda for voters. In 2024, the economy dominated voters' attention. In contrast, in Gallup data, trans issues polled at the bottom of the league table in terms of perceived importance to voters. (4/n)
The best evidence we have is that perceived economic conditions in 2024 shaped the collective behavior of the electorate. This was not just the case in the US, but everywhere: incumbents lost vote share in almost all 2024 elections, e.g., (5/n) www.ft.com/content/e8ac...
Good essay here from @juliaazari.bsky.social. Since Julia is in part asking for other social scientists to weigh in here, I thought I'd add some thoughts that have been germinating in my head for while. The main point is that the base of evidence that anti-trans ads 'work' is paper thin. (1/2)
Social scientists have lent our names to calls for electoral system change and rule of law, because of the findings of our disciplines. We should do the same for anti-trans ads, which have dubious benefit and demonstrable harm. My latest at GP/BP goodpoliticsbadpolitics.substack.com/p/social-sci...
Julia mentions the classic minimal-effects finding of research on political advertising. There are some qualifications to this, but it is a finding that generally holds up in controlled interventions, e.g., (2/n) pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC...
Beyond this basic point, a claim that looms large over discourse on this issue is the folk belief that trans issues won the 2024 election for Trump & the GOP. A lot of this is extrapolation from poll-testing of a single prominent ad, i.e., (3/n) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_...
[Christopher M. Federico] reposted
[Christopher M. Federico] reposted
[Christopher M. Federico] reposted
[Christopher M. Federico] reposted