Tim Morris

Reminds me of that cycle-helmet guy who sometimes wore a helmet and other times didn’t then after 2,000 passes from vehicles made various no-not-causal-but-should-change-policy claims about his study 1/

Mattan S. Ben-Shachar@mattansb.msbstats.info

Why it's important to consult a statistician before data collection, example 17445: If you collect data from 1000 patients, nested in 20 therapists, your effective sample size is much (much!) smaller than you think it is... 😏

@jonathan-bartlett.bsky.social

He reckoned it was a sample size of 2,000 because it was the drivers not the cyclist that count, plus sometimes he wore a wig. I thought it was closer to an N-of-1 but must have been wrong. Getting consent from those drivers must have been a nightmare sheesh

Tim Morris reposted

Jonathan Bartlett

'Hazard ratios and their causal interpretation: challenges and guidance' - open access at IJE, with @dominicmagirr.bsky.social and @timpmorris.bsky.social academic.oup.com/ije/article/...

academic.oup.comValidate User

Oh no how will he afford it

cnb.cxAdd these 4 words to your vocabulary right now, experts say: They can make you more influential at workIncorporating a handful of simple words into your vocabulary can make you more persuasive, according to a Wharton professor, a Harvard study and more.

Storing this one in my brain as a calm-down mantra

Rachel Coldicutt@rachelcoldicutt.bsky.social

I do, honestly, want to like more things, they just need to be better.

Tim Morris reposted

Will Lowe

@conjugateprior.org

What is your estimand?

CNBC Make It@cnbcmakeit.cnbc.com

Add these 4 words to your vocabulary right now, experts say: They can make you more influential at work

Tim Morris reposted

Matt Parkes

@mattyjparkes.bsky.social

Increasingly feels like 60% of my time is 'logging into systems', and 60% of my inbox is made up of verification codes from logging into systems.

@brennankahan.bsky.social

15 Sept

Makes me laugh when people don’t go to conferences for the content or the networking, but they go anyway just for the opportunity to have their calendar show “busy” so they can lock themself in a hotel room and get some work done

Tim Morris reposted

Brennan Kahan

15 Sept

***JOB ALERT*** We are seeking to appoint 3 Statistical Methodologists to work on methods related to the statistical analysis of clinical trials, or innovative design methodology. The posts will be based within the UCL Institute of Clinical Trials and Methodology. www.ucl.ac.uk/work-at-ucl/...

ucl.ac.ukUCL – University College LondonUCL is consistently ranked as one of the top ten universities in the world (QS World University Rankings 2010-2022) and is No.2 in the UK for research power (Research Excellence Framework 2021).

9 Sept

Trying to infer what’s going on in people’s brains: ‘I’m first in… where shall I sit today… by the window will be nice… except for all that horrible natural light and those views 🙅… I know – I’ll sit there but close several blinds to block out both for me and others… that’s better.’

9 Sept

Or maybe it’s: ‘The best desks are far from the window. Although I’m in first, I’ll be self-sacrificial and leave them for other people; I’ll just suck it up and sit by the window but close the blinds to emulate a good desk.’

4 Sept

Why does everyone bang on about how every snowflake is unique but never apply it to popcorn

3 Sept

Just passed a bloke pushing a buggy and glanced at his baby only to discover it was a loaf of sour dough. I just feel this is taking baking obsession a bit far.

@missannthrope66.bsky.social

3 Sept

If I ever get experimental and try to get my axes to nap in a sling you can be sure it will be in private and not just walking down the street

Tim Morris reposted

Miss Anthrope

2 Sept

Replying to @anonopin.bsky.social

My grandad used to hide the proceeds of crime in an apiary. Proof that booty is in the hive of the bee holder.

1 Sept

We’re at the end of #MSMR2026 which has been superb. It’s a ‘first’ such symposium and my main criticism is the talks have been too engaging, making it difficult to plan a mental switch off. See what you missed out on here crsuzh.pages.uzh.ch/msmr/program/

1 Sept

The great thing is that having ‘first’ in the title means a second is being planned… which has just been announced. Munich baby!

20 Aug

Anyone else’s kids love to just open the fridge and watch if anything happens, like it’s TV? I might take a pic of the inside and print a full-size poster for each of their bedrooms to save electricity.

17 Aug

In this week’s “grammar the way statos use it”, I wonder if at some point dictionaries will extend the definition of substantive to include substantial, like when they extended the definition of literally

17 Aug

Statos love using the substantive when going for the meaning of substantial Only if you learn the difference are you entitled to take swipes at people for saying “multivariate” when they mean “multivariable”, “quartiles” when they mean “fourths”, etc

instagram.comBBC Weather on Instagram: "What does an 80% chance of rain really mean? 🤔 The BBC Weather app tells you “the percentage chance of precipitation” each day - but it's sometimes misunderstood. Here's...50K likes, 1,117 comments - bbcweather on June 12, 2026: "What does an 80% chance of rain really mean? 🤔 The BBC Weather app tells you “the percentage chance of precipitation” each day - but it's so...

3 Aug

BBC finally explaining what that per cent means on the weather and that they’re frequentists www.instagram.com/reel/DZfGNFU...

Tim Morris reposted

Jonathan Bartlett

@jonathan-bartlett.bsky.social

24 July

Research Fellow post at LSHTM. Come and work with Njeru Njagi, Matteo Quartagno, Wende Clarence Safari, Aurélien Belot, Bernard Rachet and myself on extending multiple imputation methods, in particular for analyses of electronic health records in cancer. jobs.lshtm.ac.uk/vacancy.aspx...

jobs.lshtm.ac.ukJob Opportunity at LSHTM: Research Fellow in StatisticsThe London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) is one of the world’s leading public health universities. Our mission is to improve health and health equity in the UK and worldwide; working i...

20 July

Do you get wound up when you read stuff like “Warning: what you are about to read may change your mind about [x]”?

20 July

It feels like the antithesis of humility, and the opposite of how I’d want to come across when writing. Essentially: you’ve been thinking about it wrong all this time but I’m here to save you.

Tim Morris reposted

Darren Dahly

@statsepi.bsky.social

14 July

🤩 bingkaiwang.github.io/RCT_Bench-ma...

open.substack.comWhat estimands do patients care about?How can patients/researchers know? Is it a reasonable ask?

14 July

New post. People often invoke the idea of the estimands patients want. A laudable aim, but not straightforward to learn. Here are a couple of thoughts. ‘What estimands do patients care about? How can patients/researchers know? Is it a reasonable ask?’ open.substack.com/pub/tpmorris...

9 July

New rule, results now go in supplementary material and methods in the main text

Tim Morris reposted

Darren Dahly

@statsepi.bsky.social

7 July

Replying to @publichealthguy1.bsky.social

AND HERE I AM JUST GIVING IT OUT FOR FREE TO THE UNWASHED MASSES

6 July

This is a lot of people’s bugbear isn’t it

Tim Morris reposted

Hanne Oberman

@oberman.bsky.social

So excited to chat about Teaching Open Science and Reproducibility at MSMR this summer!

Tim Morris@timpmorris.bsky.social

The program is up for the first 1st Interdisciplinary Symposium on Meta Science for Methods Research and it promises to be a BANGER! crsuzh.pages.uzh.ch/msmr/program/

Tim Morris reposted

František Bartoš

@fbartos.bsky.social

Check out the great program of the *1st Interdisciplinary Symposium on Meta Science for Methods Research* organized 31 August and 1 September in Zürich! Ton of cool speakers and meta-methodological reseach! crsuzh.pages.uzh.ch/msmr/program/ (registration still open)

The program is up for the first 1st Interdisciplinary Symposium on Meta Science for Methods Research and it promises to be a BANGER! crsuzh.pages.uzh.ch/msmr/program/

Registration is open until 15th June – get in while you can. University of Zurich, 31st August and 1st Sep 2026.

open.substack.comCovariate adjustment and prediction-unbiasednessThis is about covariate adjustment in RCTs (for a marginal estimand).

21 May

New post: Covariate adjustment and prediction-unbiasedness. Where I embarrass myself by asking smart people a dumb question (so you don’t have to) and get a useful answer. open.substack.com/pub/tpmorris...

Tim Morris reposted

Darren Dahly

@statsepi.bsky.social

23 Apr

JPAI expresses concern that AI will generate even more papers than he does. 😜

22 Apr

Title for this paper by @annemscheel.bsky.social made me snort. Outstanding. doi.org/10.1002/icd....

22 Apr

I particularly like how it’s not just funny as a standalone title; there’s also a layer that seems to slightly deride the original title it’s riffing on.

15 Apr

I’m at EuroCIM for the first time and a) lovely community with lots of familiar faces & nice informality b) the talks are just as technical as the abstracts imply A funny thing happened a few times today: speakers slipped into a reverie while pondering some dense notation on a slide.

31 Mar

A beginner’s guide to hot-desking etiquette: A) Pick desk by window B) Close blinds

31 Mar

It’s a relief to be able to set AI to work on boring tasks so I can spend my time on important things like opening blinds, MFA, and proving I am still human.

doi.orgA Causal Perspective on “Appropriate Implementation of ICH E9(R1) Addendum Strategies” (Comment on Fleming et al.)This commentary offers perspectives on delivering “rigorous causal inference on meaningful estimands” that differ from the opinions recently shared by Fleming et al. We (1) depict a more robust pathw...

New commentary in Statistics in Medicine: ‘A Causal Perspective on “Appropriate Implementation of ICH E9(R1) Addendum Strategies” (Comment on Fleming et al.)’ By me, Alex Ocampo, Jesper Madsen, Hege Michiels, Sanne Roels. 1/ doi.org/10.1002/sim....

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doi.orgCommentary on Fleming et al. “A Perspective on the Appropriate Implementation of ICH E9(R1) Addendum Strategies for Handling Intercurrent Events”Click on the article title to read more.

The third comes from the Estimands Implementation Working Group. ‘Commentary on Fleming et al. “A Perspective on the Appropriate Implementation of ICH E9(R1) Addendum Strategies for Handling Intercurrent Events”’ by Oliver Keene, David Wright and Crissie Fletcher 5/ doi.org/10.1002/sim....

There was a long delay between Fleming et al’s paper and our comments… I suspect there will be a similar one before we get to see their response. Not sure if I’m looking forward to reading that or not! 6/

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Unfortch, their message seems to be roughly ‘ITT or bust’. This prompted three commentaries. Ours tries to give a different perspective that emphasises the flow of reasoning (figure 1 particularly), that starts with estimand and moves forward, but may get stuck and need to go backwards. 3/

doi.orgWhat Makes an Estimand Useful? Guidance on the Choice of Intercurrent Event StrategiesWhile the use of estimands in randomized trials is increasing, there is little guidance on which intercurrent event strategies should be used. The article by Fleming et al. seeks to address this gap....

There’s a very nice commentary on the tension between relevance and reliability. ‘What Makes an Estimand Useful? Guidance on the Choice of Intercurrent Event Strategies’ By @brennankahan.bsky.social Fan Li, Michael Harhay & @suziecro.bsky.social 4/ doi.org/10.1002/sim....

doi.orgA Perspective on the Appropriate Implementation of ICH E9(R1) Addendum Strategies for Handling Intercurrent EventsIn randomized clinical trials, stopping study medication, use of rescue treatment, and other intercurrent events can complicate interpretation of results. The ICH E9(R1) Addendum on estimands stimula...

This comments on a paper that appeared last year, ‘A Perspective on the Appropriate Implementation of ICH E9(R1) Addendum Strategies for Handling Intercurrent Events’. The aim – ‘Scientifically Rigorous Causal Inference on Meaningful Estimands’ – is good. 2/ doi.org/10.1002/sim....

Tim Morris reposted

Donald Szlosek

@dszlosek.bsky.social

24 Mar

For anyone who is doing statistical simulation work, I honestly cannot recommend @timpmorris.bsky.social's elegant 2019 manuscript on ADEMP framework enough. Outlining a structured approach to planning sim studies, w/in-depth examples+how to display Monte Carlo SEs. #statssky#statistics #academicsky

24 Mar

Note to self: I never ever want to present an RSS discussion paper. The experience of ‘discussions’ like these would drive me to the bottle.