Andrew B. Watkins
Andrew B. Watkins
@windjunky.bsky.social
Australian climate scientist rambling about climate drivers, variability, risks, trends & impacts. Once played goalie for Antarctica. Born @ 325ppm. https://www.linkedin.com/in/drandrewwatkins/
1.4K followers171 following6K posts
So sad and so common around the word now
"St. Mary’s Glacier, a perennial snowfield popular among hikers and skiers, melted completely in September. 'What we’re witnessing is the loss of that part of Colorado’s identity. And it’s not just Colorado,' said McGrath, who specializes in glacier dynamics." apnews.com/article/glac...
Relative Nino3 El Nino index over +4C (four degrees). Never seen that in my professional lifetime. Unbelievable... but also not. Latest BoM data: www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso...
Sea surface height showing similarities to 1997/98, with around half a metre ( 1-1/2 foot) difference in sea level between the western and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, but clearly over a larger area. Groovy slider on the website too... science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-...
Plus, 2025 vs 2026 chlorophyll. Much less marine chlorophyl in 2026 than 2025, due to less upwelling along the equator due to weaker El Nino trade winds. Hence less nutrients brought to the surface and less food for chlorophyll producing phytoplankton. science.nasa.gov/earth/earth-...
Another El Niño story including me and John McBride from @news.abc.net.au by Romy Stephens youtu.be/k5mJU-UCBYs?...
Andrew B. Watkins reposted
Among the many things climate change deniers don’t understand is significance. They spend years looking for errors in climate data but don’t understand that what they find is almost always insignificant. It’s also why they’ll never be satisfied by any rigorous report on climate data.
The Australian newspaper has been claiming a "forensic audit report" shows BoM's temperature data has "widespread error". For 15 years climate sceptics have been claiming a conspiracy around the data. Is anything different this time?
Christ on a bike - Port Phillip Bay into unknown warm territory according to the satellite monitoring. Be interesting to see where it settles back down to after the current weather event www.baywx.com.au/temps.html (Direct link to plot: www.baywx.com.au/midtemps.png )
Same (Liberal gov) people attacked the BoM ACORN-SAT dataset which prompted a review in 2011 which found nothing wrong (theconversation.com/bureaus-weat...) and again in 2015 (www.bom.gov.au/climate/data... ) which commended the work to Minister Frydenberg, and again said there was nothing wrong.
The BoM’s temperature record keeping is under attack – again. What’s going on? | Temperature Check
Would you believe... the updated BoM summer extreme heat forecast has increased the chance of extreme heat even more! www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahea...
I have NEVER seen a BoM extreme (chance of top 20% of all years) maximum temperature outlook with numbers as high as this. And this is for summer 2026-27. Crikey. Sydney with a shocking high chance of extremes - watch out in the western suburbs. Can’t rule out 50C www.bom.gov.au/climate/outl...
First thunderstorm asthma warning of the season in east Gippsland for Sunday - which has gotta be unusual for an El Nino! Possibly more related to good crops in areas that started with big late summer 2025/26 rainfall and hence high soil moisture. www.health.vic.gov.au/environmenta...
50,000 excess deaths from heat, unknown additional 1000’s from smoke/air pollution. The untold story of extreme weather over summer.
New attribution study from @imperialcollegeldn.bsky.social supported by the @wwattribution.bsky.social team. 50.000 excess deaths across Europe during Summer 2026. 65% of the mortality burden is attributable to man-made climate change, ie our fossil emissions! www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham/pub...
Andrew B. Watkins reposted
Fat Cat Climate Scientists…. like me! (Replace EXXON with Woodside for Australian viewers). Cracker clip narrated by Woody Harrelson… www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJyQ...
The Exxon ad Exxon doesn't want you to see. New from Adam McKay @ghostpanther.bsky.social and voiced by Woody Harrelson.
If like me you thought you were going balmy when looking up past record rNINO34 values and couldn’t find them anymore (eg record El Niño monthly value in Jan 1983 of 2.6 now 2.43), a change in dataset was made by BoM on 13 October. So you/I are not (yet) crazy! www.bom.gov.au/climate/anno...
Port Phillip has shot up again and at record warm levels. Snapper will be on! I was too hot in my 3/2 steamer wetsuit in Western Port yesterday! www.baywx.com.au/temps.html
Andrew B. Watkins reposted
Live nowhere near the bush? Bushfires are still costing you. A new Emergency Leaders for Climate Action report finds they’ll cost Australia $6 billion a year, from hospital visits and lost work to rebuilding public infrastructure. Check out the new report here: https://bit.ly/bushfirecost
Andrew B. Watkins reposted
Fantastic article by @phannam.bsky.social! Highlights much more than just the CSIRO staff angst (which is shared by BoM and University researchers) but also the silence on climate because it doesn’t poll highly and hence near total lack of adaptation. reneweconomy.com.au/wandering-to...
(Exclusive, from me) An all-staff work review reveals some angst about what the public is not being told… reneweconomy.com.au/wandering-to...
Andrew B. Watkins reposted
Wearing my Protect Our Winters shirt today in solidarity and support for Helen Haines MP - a long time supporter of climate action and protecting the High Country from the worst impacts of climate change. One of the nicest pollies I’ve met. In our thoughts and hearts @helenhainesindi.bsky.social
"Subsidising fossil fuels is subsidising suicide," UN chief Antonio Guterres ahead of UN biodiversity summit, COP17. **for every $US that goes into saving our planet, $30 goes into degrading it** Bugger. sg.news.yahoo.com/subsidising-...
Andrew B. Watkins reposted
Sea level rise is accelerating connectsci.au/es/article/7..., meaning more councils and residents will soon face similar issues www.sgst.com.au/bass-coast-s...
Andrew B. Watkins reposted
Amazing sea surface temperature map, with a very distinct East Australian Current pushing down the east coast. Water temperatures around 23C offshore of Sydney, and much warmer waters off eastern Tasmania (around 18°C) than in Port Phillip Bay (15°C)! www.bom.gov.au/oceanography...
Temperatures 2.5-4°C warmer than normal in some areas. www.bom.gov.au/products/IDY...
That podcast is a YouTube clip now, and well worth a watch even if just to see a young McBride, Nicholls, Williams and Coughlan - all BoM legends. youtu.be/dL4B2Tv3oO8?...
This is a great climate and El Niño history listen! I was in a classroom looking out the window when the dust storm hit, and my mind boggled - my wife was riding her bike and rushed into a friends house to escape the Armageddon. www.abc.net.au/listen/progr...
Surely that poor dead horse should be spared the flogging by now… A small number of errors in a database in years that are not included in the calculation of Australia’s temperature trend means, frankly, bugger all. (Other than to remind me why The Australian can’t be taken seriously any more.)
The Australian attacks the Bureau of Meteorology…for data a century or so old … what a relief that we don’t have to worry about climate change… (handy, too, to undermine the coming State of the Climate, and the mass of record temperatures in Australia and abroad)..
This is a great climate and El Niño history listen! I was in a classroom looking out the window when the dust storm hit, and my mind boggled - my wife was riding her bike and rushed into a friends house to escape the Armageddon. www.abc.net.au/listen/progr...
I have NEVER seen a BoM extreme (chance of top 20% of all years) maximum temperature outlook with numbers as high as this. And this is for summer 2026-27. Crikey. Sydney with a shocking high chance of extremes - watch out in the western suburbs. Can’t rule out 50C www.bom.gov.au/climate/outl...
Back in Canberra this week talking climate change mitigation, adaptation and resilience building ahead of a hot El Niño summer, with the @climatecouncil.org.au
Andrew B. Watkins reposted
Clothes make the man. Today’s @theageaustralia.bsky.social @sydmorningherald.bsky.social cartoon
Atmospheric physics doesn’t give a rat’s putooty where the coal is burned, so why do we?
Should coal mines count their pollution? High Court says yes. Add your name 👉 https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/actions/end-the-free-ride-petition/ https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/oct/08/has-the-high-court-set-australias-fossil-fuel-producers-shaking-in-their-boots-they-should-be
Andrew B. Watkins reposted
A month of broken records for temperatures around Australia. Hottest September ever for minimums across the continent, scores of places setting records for warmest September. A snow depth gauge in the NSW alps fell to zero - a first for any September since it was deployed in 1954.
The one lonely 0cm dot in September was 2026. Weekly snow depthdata from Spencers Creek since 1954 (72 years) at snowdepth.info
2026 Aus snow season - first season on record that Spencers Creek hit 0cm snow in September… (Can also see this on snowdepth.info ) www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...