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It really doesn't make sense to attribute those job losses to AI-the-technology, because if that were the case we'd be observing AI outputs displacing conventional entertainment products, and they're clearly not. Rather, the impact of AI is that AI-the-business is crowding out other investment.

Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈@josephpolitano.bsky.social

Hollywood has suffered the most in the AI era—with the movie & TV industry losing more than 100k jobs, nearly one-third of the sector’s total employment, over the last four years. Total employment in video production is approaching the fthe lowest levels in 30 years

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UK Film & TV worker here (currently out of work, lol) it's the same story here, as a lot of our production is for US streamers too. Also a huge part of the story is the 2023 WGA and SAG strikes. Production crawled to a halt and when it started up again they maintained the lower commissioning levels

as someone who works in the film & tv industry who has been replaced by or lost work because of AI …. I mean - it’s not just gaffers or directors who comprise the industry and saying you’d be observing “AI outputs” not sure what that means?

In both film and video games, you see a ton of *project cancellations* and a general difficulty in funding new projects, which wouldn't be the case if AI was displacing workers in producing those products—you'd expect the opposite, in fact, if it was becoming cheaper to make a movie/game.

But the crowding out is extremely obvious to see, in particular, in video games because just Microsoft by itself is responsible for a huge proportion of the bleeding because they're explicitly divesting from Xbox to plug the gaping financial ulcer that is OpenAI.

Declines also just correlate with the rise of the AI bubble on somewhat coincidental terms. *all* at-home entertainment was overinvested in during the peak of covid, and we're experiencing a hangover crash from that, for example, which is now being compounded by AI-driven misinvestment.

What is happening is not that AI-generated cultural goods are replacing human-made cultural goods; what is happening is that capital is flowing out of the production of cultural goods *entirely,* making us all poorer for it.

Movie/TV dried up because there a huge content glut. Streamer over investment created a huge overhang that has to burn off. Going through the same thing in ent hard/soft goods rn, but it's trailing the movie/tv cycle. There's other macro factors at play but AI is nothingburger in effect so far.

We're gonna see YoY nominal growth in hard/soft but that's deceptive as price inflation rate is far higher than the YoY growth rate. There will be a coming wave of failures and liquidations globally, including wage pressures which will work another turn of the screw. It's white knuckle time fr.

Unfortunately the pressure on management to chase projected cost savings can preemptively lead to staff reductions even when the tool gains have never materialised. Benchmark versus the illusion. Short term rewards outweigh long term output

Reasonably certain the account that posted those graphs is just a slop bot doing "ai"-washing. Not that the workplaces aren't being impacted, just that it's not slop engines doing it, it's mostly just horrid investments and the current economic situation.

Yeah you can pull the same kind of data from a lot of other parts of the economy. Was just talking with friends the other day about the flows of investmental capital in private construction are being almost entirely displaced into data centers.

The construction industry is going to absolutely boned when AI goes pop and all their data center deals fall through and future ones are canned. Just no money coming from anywhere else right now.

I'm reminded of a similar analysis of some of the recently canned saudi megaprojects, is that if they actually went ahead as allegedly planned they'd use such an enormous proportion of the world's steel and cement production that it'd drive up the cost for everything else. same as the RAM crunch.

We've seen this all over the place. AI is a convenient excuse for layoffs but they never had time to implement the AI workflows needed to actually replace these jobs. And the software developers who could develop these workflows were some of the hardest hit by AI layoffs.

I feel like there's a version of Gresham's law that as long as scams that promise exponential growth are allowed to present themselves as legitimate they inevitably crowd out real investments that can only generate organic growth.

This is why most founders go quiet. They buy the lie of automated exponential growth, get burned by empty promises, and then abandon social entirely. Real organic growth takes daily human labor. You either pay a desk to do the actual work or you get crowded out.

This is why most founders go quiet. They buy the lie of automated exponential growth, get burned by empty promises, and then abandon social entirely. Real organic growth takes daily human labor. You either pay a desk to do the actual work or you get crowded out.

This is why most founders go quiet. They buy the lie of automated exponential growth, get burned by empty promises, and then abandon social entirely. Real organic growth takes daily human labor. You either pay a desk to do the actual work or you get crowded out.