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But e-day results are redder than EV, or is that accounted for?

Thank you for this! My quick read of this is this comes down to Davidson, and it looks closer than ppl are starting to say it does. Could still be a win?

Trump won Montgomery Co by almost 20 It was a tossup last night

This is still a massive overperformance for the Democrats for what should've been a solid red district.

I'm using their numbers.

Last year's spread.

The problem is that it looks like there's around 29,000 votes still outstanding, but only around 9,000 of them are in Davidson County (Nashville).

That’s still single digits… in a district that went for Trump by 22. And it matches the standard overperformance by Dems of ~+15. Which should terrify Repubs. Because there are a TON of +10R seats out there. Including many of the ones they’ve just gerrymandered.

I'm sad. He's pulling much farther ahead than the polling indicated.

Still D+15 swing from last year, though, right?

7.3% win in a +22 district? I’ll take it!!!

I think it was going to be a tall order for the Dem to win. What is the overall shift compared to '24?

The larger cities will take longer to vote And I am calling them as Democrat votes 🙏

This is what gerrymandering looks like on a spreadsheet.

It's Cheatham County btw. This chart shows how gerrymandering distorted this district - Davidson County is Nashville and the 7th District used to encompass all of it, making it reliably Democratic. I grew up there, this is painful to see, but by god she's made it incredibly close.

I liked 51-47 better.

Oh?!