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novapsyche
@novapsyche444.bsky.social

Mike Rogers would have wiped the floor with Stevens during their debates. Stevens was a horrendous candidate and I'm glad she didn't make it out of the primary.

Guachi
@guachi.bsky.social

Even less with McMorrow. She, of the three, comes across most as 'generic D' and in 2026 in MI that's good for a 10 point win.

novapsyche
@novapsyche444.bsky.social

When McMorrow dropped out of the 3-person primary, she was polling at about 4%. Her name remained on the ballot due to the late date of her stepping aside. She earned about 4% in the primary, even though voters knew she wasn't running. That 4% was probably an accurate reflection of her support.

novapsyche
@novapsyche444.bsky.social

The fact is that, while she began strong, McMorrow apparently took bad consulting advice, as her campaign became more generic. This might've been fine advice for the GE, but in a 3-way primary it was fatal. Combined with McMorrow's ill-considered attacks on El-Sayed, her campaign was spiraling.

Svenosaurus
@svenosaurus.bsky.social

How does a 10% spread happen? I find that hard to believe. bsky.app/profile/sven...

Svenosaurus@svenosaurus.bsky.social

What’s the theory explaining a 10% spread? In presidential elections, “weak candidate” explanation crucially depends on not exciting enough potential voters to go vote. That’s not possible here if those people are voting for Benson already. (I don’t believe there will be such a big spread, BTW)

Guachi
@guachi.bsky.social

People keep yelling at me when I say El-Sayed will underperform by 5-10 points. It's the same R Senate candidate as '24. So that's not it Some say the underperformance is Islamophobia but I think he's just a weak candidate.

Guachi
@guachi.bsky.social

Yes. I'm sure some is Islamophobia. But any good candidate, particularly in MI, should have either not run if they didn't think they could overcome their electoral negatives (whatever they may be) or been able to counteract them. El-Sayed eventually underbussed Hasan Piker but it took way too long

Guachi
@guachi.bsky.social

I am not currently a MI voter but I will be soon so I'm taking particular interest in this race. No R has won a MI Senate race since 1994. And El-Sayed winning by 2 means he has lots of work to do or he'll get smashed in 2032.

Mike BOO-rnandez
@burnorbrah.bsky.social

Dunno. I could imagine Hillary crushing McCain in 08 by LBJ 1964-level margins while Obama, of course, only won by 7. For someone with an identity as unique as AES’, it may be giving some normies cold feet.

Svenosaurus
@svenosaurus.bsky.social

What’s the theory explaining a 10% spread? In presidential elections, “weak candidate” explanation crucially depends on not exciting enough potential voters to go vote. That’s not possible here if those people are voting for Benson already. (I don’t believe there will be such a big spread, BTW)

novapsyche
@novapsyche444.bsky.social

You are incorrect. El-Sayed has amazing political instincts, especially when on the stump. Great retail politics. Also, his resume is impeccable in terms of his education and accomplishments. He's down-to-earth, empathetic, tough on his opponents. The Islamophobia is like nothing we've ever seen.

Guachi
@guachi.bsky.social

He's running 10 behind other Ds in MI. Should he not have anticipated this from Republicans? He has great instincts so surely he must have known what was coming. And yet he has no effective counter. He's spent way too long shoring up Jewish and Black voters and took too long underbussing Piker.