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"Here’s what’s actually happening: data center deals are being funded by eager private credit gargoyles that don’t know shit about fuck." Dare anyone say the art of writing is dead? I'm a fan, I can't lie.

This was really good, I slowly read it all the way through. Thanks for doing the journalism none of the mainline outlets will ever do

Every industry is lying to you.

But Jensen just said AGI has been achieved! I’m so confused 🤭

Great article and thanks. The canarys in the coal mine for AI collapse will be NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, etc. sales slowing/stock price slipping and construction companies getting stiffed.

Re-upping my prediction that as we speak there are flavors of corruption and insanity going on in the AI companies, and the big hyperscalers, all driven by this AI hype cycle, and that make Wolf of Wall Street look sane by comparison. If our economy survives, the Netflix movies will be fucking LIT

So even if models are better they're subsidized and no one is paying true costs. Improving models further will require yet more money. I've seen a lot of people say LLMs are going to be a commodity. Don't really see how the economics work, then unless training runs stop.

I will say that "This update will fix it" logic was first "Beta Tested", shall we say, in the games industry. I've seen so many buggy game releases where "The next update will fix it!" was used to silence criticism. Problem is there are games that updates fixed, which is why it stuck around.

The AI data center bubble is filled with non-existent data centers that somehow raise billions of dollars for projects that don't seem to be being built. Every single project appears to be behind schedule - and most haven't even been started. www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-industry-is-lying-to-you/

and that's 3GW too much

I’m not sure you’re wrong on the capacity utilization fairy tale, but it seems like a big assumption that Nvidia’s US sourced revenue is going only to US buildouts, rather than US HQ’d cos buying their global capacity?

NGL it feels like we’re all just sitting around with the popcorn waiting to see what happens when the money runs out and/or the market gets bored, because there is nothing we can do about it except watch the proceedings that will inevitably crash our entire lives. Again.

So the code constructed to replace coders is so inefficient that it’s hard Killing AI. Cool!!!

Couldn't happen to a bigger bunch of braindead incels.

The industry might be overselling progress — but the bigger issue is we’re still treating probabilistic outputs like they’re deterministic. That’s where things break.

Oh I think they're all linked, that's why I call them puzzle pieces fitting together, with (1) and (2) I just think it's interesting that either one could be the horse or the cart.

And a more specific variation of (1): they're doing what it takes to book those juicy commitments from OpenAI for compute, but knowingly dragging their feet on the actual build-out, because they doubt whether OpenAI will actually be good for it.

Could tell them to make their marketing videos with Sora. Last week. This week, not so much. bsky.app/profile/rj-p...

A hammer

There's an accounting fraud where a distributor is incentivized to take delivery of product they knowingly can't sell so that the producer can fake increased sales. Aka, channel stuffing. It could be temporary, product could get returned next quarter, or it could get diverted to black/grey market.

Because it’s a story to tell investors

If they don't buy gpus, they're "falling behind" their competitors.

Yup. Servers that I was running 15 years ago in a rack on-prem were super efficient for the time but still pulled like 400 watts each. Now a freaking mini-PC can out perform those beasts while pulling 20 watts. Combine that with virtualization and data centers had a lot of extra capacity in power.

I can't believe how hard it is to find a Homer Simpson "Do you want it done right or do you want it done fast" meme for this article.

This is such a boon for business idiots and ambitious jerks. While the tooling can be helpful to a certain degree, I feel it is also causing me literal brain damage.

Bottom lines: Demand in the current model has peaked Demand for paid versions is declining IOW, few of of us need this shit. Fewer of us are willing to pay for it.

Yeah I’m one of those designers you mention ( I do actually know FE closing at a decent level) and can confirm we’re being expected to design by prompt code to be pushed into production. Welcome to the suck.

If you’re working with interviews, transcripts, or reporting — we’re opening up early access now: veracityai.app

"Not to sound unprofessional or nothing, but what the fuck is going on?" 😆

Wonder if this would work to help head off data center construction as well... bsky.app/profile/proj...

This is absolutely perfect: "Do you actually want to know stuff, or just have the ability to call up information when necessary?" Also, "Silicon Valley Hapsburgs" is a little niche, but also as good a description as there is.

A sad short poem: For sale. NVIDIA GPUs. Never installed.