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Ani
@aninewforest.bsky.social

That's great, but Reform is still in the lead which is terrifying. Given what an expensive five-alarm fire the Trump administration has been, if people are this keen to reproduce it in the UK, they're more self-destructively vengeful than I thought.

Ed Can Do
@edcando.bsky.social

They're going down and will continue to do so. Plus they already lost every by-election since the last general one, despite apparently being shoe in favourite to win each one.

Ed Can Do
@edcando.bsky.social

Yeah, they're dead in the water too. Turns out the voting public aren't actually that into performative cruelty after all, who knew? 🤷🏻‍♂️

Tim Wakeling
@timwakeling.co.uk

By my calculations, the notional Reform+Con majority only disappears when the Greens actually overtake Reform on %. The FPTP system works very hard to keep the fascists ahead until that happens.

Tim Wakeling
@timwakeling.co.uk

The inflexion point where Green seats start to be numerous enough to allow them to potentially stitch together a progressive government with other parties is somewhere around 26%. A Green majority seems to require about 31%.

Fergus Murray
@oolong.co.uk

Are you factoring in anything about tactical voting there? Signs so far point it working strongly against Reform, although the evidence is limited and mostly byelection-based.

Martin Farley 🔰
@martinfarley.bsky.social

In about half of all Reform seats here, the GRN+LD+LAB vote is at least 50% more than the Reform vote. So I think there is huge potential for tactical voting by those progressive supporters. Good local campaigning should deprive Reform of a huge number of seats

Duncan Buchanan
@duncanbuch.bsky.social

Aside from that they are doing ok. Perhaps relationships with the EU could be better managed. And maybe general sucking up to the US could be dropped. And they could be clearer on not bombing Iran illegally. And they could really do northern rail investment instead of pretending. Aside from that...