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"this would be really bad and so, ipso facto, it can't happen" is the assumption underlying the entire Trump era and it's sort of bleakly funny to see people clinging to it even as the train is jumping the tracks

"drones aren't real" I assure myself as I close my eyes and pilot my tanker into the strait of hormuz

"one way or another" is really the key to this nonsense there's one way! the way is iran deciding the strait is open again, it's extremely clear at this point that this is not something that can be forced militarily there simply is no "another" no matter how hard you wishcast it

fwiw folks who know stuff are basically reading this as JPM doomposting and saying "price shocks are going to force Trump to give Iran whatever they want to reopen the strait by some time in June" I'm less convinced that's going to happen but it's a less ridiculous theory