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This also applies to scenarios in which the GOP tries to avoid seating a Dem congress

Is there a ways to “Big Short” this June 1st bet?

It makes feel genuinely insane on a daily basis

How in the world do they breathe with their heads so deep in the sand like that?

This kind of thinking is rife in economics. When I was a student I was assigned an apparently serious article that assured us that new technologies will *always* arise to address resource shortages. Like getting gold from sea water! Something does have to give but it might not be what you expect.

Wishful thinking - what an analyst resorts too when the reality is too horrifying.

We've already seen the collapse of "This would be really bad and so, ipso facto, people in power will try to prevent it" and now we're in a situation where even if they DID try it might be too late! Maybe factor that into the model, as a treat?

Yep, mostly vindicated. The error wasn't in seeing what would happen. The error was in underestimating how stupid Great Idiots Of History were, such as Wilhelm and Nicholas

[loud chanting from Wall Street]: Things can only good happen. Can only good happen.

I hate how much ancient Egypt is a guide to understanding the moment, but the absolute ruler and cult leader desired by the Republicans is basically a Pharaoh, and Trump is a mix of Pepy II (old, senile, incompetent) and Akhenaten (narcissistic, daddy issues, delusions of godhood, deeply weird).

yeah, this is my dumb-guy opinion

"If this guy keeps applying pressure to my arm like that it'll break, ergo I'm working off the assumption that he's about to let me go."

"We can just push boats through, what are they going to do, hit us with rockets and drones launched from Iranian soil? That would be silly they are nowhere near the strait."

I got into a ferocious argument with my brother when I warned him Trump was screwing up the National Weather Service. My brother said "No one would do that, that would be stupid!" Greedy people will wreck all sorts of stuff for money. Like people pulling wiring out of buildings to sell metals.

Is this the same JP Morgan that said US refineries will be forced to reduce their gasoline production in September so they can produce more jet fuel?

"Nothing bad can happen, it can only good happen."

JP Morgan analyst: "if the train jumps tracks then we won't have to spend money on future tracks! Mark it doe as savings!"

Analysts: This would be really bad and nobody wants this, so it won't happen Trump: When I say 'Sea', you hear 'See'. A lot of people don't know there are words that sound the same but are spelled different. A big strong dictionary came up to me and said "Sir, we need you to make a word for that."

All I know is I’m getting hit hard in the current economy, extremely ready for it to be worse if it means that Trump is a generational pariah known only for a racist legacy of his tiny swollen hands turning the country into scam central and everything else to shit… …so imagine how the Iranians feel

The market believes that a full-scale assault on Iran's energy infrastructure (which is a war crime) would quickly compel their full surrender. I honestly can't say for sure they're wrong but it really feels like we're gonna find out.

it's coming to the point where i actually NEED the train to jump the tracks just to be sure that physical reality still exists, living in this "nothing matters" era is driving me insane

It's for the rubes on Xwitter. We'd ratio the fuck outta him here.

It's kind of ridiculous how much of the economy is being propped up by corporate/investor coping. People who can look for solutions are not because nobody is taking how dire the situation is seriously.

im reading this as "Trump will have to capitulate soon to avoid tanking the stock market" and like hell he does

Yeah, if the oil price had hit 200USD/bbl in March, we would have seen much more conservation and new drilling. But apparently that couldn't be allowed, so now Trump is pushing the crash as close to the midterms as possible lol.

"Next quarter is not my problem." is the entire ethos of capitalism.

My target for Hegseth to get the sack is 31May. Once Trump sacks him, he can redescribe defeat as defeat for Hegseth.

And Trump can stay stupid a lot longer than that!

It was more fun when Ozzy did it youtu.be/FVovq9TGBw0?...

It’s like they’re the 2nd character that’s supposed to die after the premonition in a Final Destination movie but their attitude is permanently the 1st character that’s supposed to die after the premonition.

bsky.app/profile/sent...

"nothing ever happens"-ing my way through it

and covid is going to be over by April

You have to agree that any sane Secretary of Defense would insist that the US military could not stop Iran from closing the Strait without a massive ground invasion. And any sane President would therefore not start a war.This is not rocket science, people!

it can only good happen

trump has been demanding tanker crews literally do this since the first week

we're more likely to experience a coup here than the world's most vain and petty man in history deciding to eat a giant bowl of shit and take the enormous L that is waiting at the end of this

Lol that one way isn't even an instant fix. Strait will take 6 months estimated to demine and repairing damage to facilities will take months or years

This reflexive free association is the only way I could feel good about this story. youtu.be/valVixMpzQY

oh it can be forced militarily, just not in a way that anyone wants to touch.

Well, there is a military solution from the US, but <insert Deity(s) here> help us if we go down that road.

It might not work, but it's a sacrifice I'm willing for them to make.

Deal!

I think the Blondie song they are hoping for is Rapture

we should send debbie harry to iran to help negotiate

"One way or another" sure sounds like they know Trump has set an early June invasion date. I'm sure Iran hasn't spent the last two months digging trenches and installing mines all along the coastline and pressuring mideast allies to not assist a US invasion.

They’re pretending cratering global oil reserves are a thing Iran ultimately wants to avoid too as opposed being, ya know, THE ENTIRE POINT.

"price changes behaviors, and 250 dollar crude is a market catastrophe that can't be jawboned" is all it should be read as.

Not sure if Trump giving in to Iranian demands is actually a viable way out. I don’t think Trump can actually deliver on what they want.

The thing is worry about is the oil shocks happen, Trump initially backs down, then the Iranians post "We won, suck it Trump you tiny dicked loser" on Twitter and he rips up the deal.

It's plausible and certainly a rational president would do that. Problem here is Donny just ain't rational and theres nothing he hates more than looking weak.

That’s the most plausible way to get there, but I still find it highly unlikely.

Trump's WWE instincts make this more possible than it seems at first glance

The alternative "funny" way of doing it, would be to gather up a shitton of trucks to carry the oil across the desert.

The only thing that stops the United States from invading a country is nuclear weapons. Therefore, if you don't want to be pillaged at a whim it behooves anyone who doesn't trust America to build one

Stonks only up!

Surely Iran will not use its power to inflict economic misery on its hated enemies that have kept it under sanctions for decades, I say in exchange for a seven-figure salary.

What’s the opposite of a capital strike? I’ve been wondering this for a while now and this seems like a perfect example.