Post

Micah
@rincewind.run

"this would be really bad and so, ipso facto, it can't happen" is the assumption underlying the entire Trump era and it's sort of bleakly funny to see people clinging to it even as the train is jumping the tracks

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Micah
@rincewind.run

"drones aren't real" I assure myself as I close my eyes and pilot my tanker into the strait of hormuz

18 reposts507 likes

Tom Forsyth
@tomforsyth.bsky.social

Analysts all agree that starting a war with Iran that would impede traffic through the Strait would be catastrophic for the global economy, and the line would stop going up, therefore the Trump regime will make sure that war never starts. It's just facts, Micah.

Tom Forsyth
@tomforsyth.bsky.social

That's assuming a moron like Trump ever got elected for a second term, which as we know from past data would also stop the line going up, so it can't and won't ever happen.

Paul Murphy -> 🦖🦖🦖
@paulmurphyetc.bsky.social

You have to agree that any sane Secretary of Defense would insist that the US military could not stop Iran from closing the Strait without a massive ground invasion. And any sane President would therefore not start a war.This is not rocket science, people!

Micah
@rincewind.run

"one way or another" is really the key to this nonsense there's one way! the way is iran deciding the strait is open again, it's extremely clear at this point that this is not something that can be forced militarily there simply is no "another" no matter how hard you wishcast it

drama
@withdrama.bsky.social

we're more likely to experience a coup here than the world's most vain and petty man in history deciding to eat a giant bowl of shit and take the enormous L that is waiting at the end of this

Alexandrian Apologist
@goldenslowpoke.bsky.social

"One way or another" sure sounds like they know Trump has set an early June invasion date. I'm sure Iran hasn't spent the last two months digging trenches and installing mines all along the coastline and pressuring mideast allies to not assist a US invasion.

Micah
@rincewind.run

fwiw folks who know stuff are basically reading this as JPM doomposting and saying "price shocks are going to force Trump to give Iran whatever they want to reopen the strait by some time in June" I'm less convinced that's going to happen but it's a less ridiculous theory

ESG Hound@esghound.com

Correct, this is just a summary of Marko Kolanovic (former JPM macro) posts on twitter. He's been doom posting for weeks. Some people in finance are willfully dumb chuds but you should never assume that they are all mouthbreathers or w/e

ESG Hound
@esghound.com

"price changes behaviors, and 250 dollar crude is a market catastrophe that can't be jawboned" is all it should be read as.

Dustin
@dustinn.bsky.social

Not sure if Trump giving in to Iranian demands is actually a viable way out. I don’t think Trump can actually deliver on what they want.

Seentoomuch
@seentoomuch.bsky.social

The thing is worry about is the oil shocks happen, Trump initially backs down, then the Iranians post "We won, suck it Trump you tiny dicked loser" on Twitter and he rips up the deal.