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3/ So much to unpack here. First, the 'forever war' in this case is entirely Putin's choice. He could declare 'victory' or 'mission accomplished' or nothing at all and just withdraw to Russia's borders at literally any time. Macron isn't dragooning Russian troops into attacks on Kherson.

4/ The sanctions bit of this is also very dumb. It assumes Europeans thought sanctions would, for pretty much the first time in human history, topple a regime. Not signal opposition (which they did) Not slow down Russia's economy (which they did) Not starve Russia's warmachine (which they did).

5/ Yeah dude, Russia's economy is going great guns. They're crushing it. This is the kind of economic inisght and analysis that made Yanis such an invaluable asset to Greece. Is monthly inflation of 6% and a 15% interest rate good, Yanis? Military Keynsianism lmao.

6/ The strategy has been give Ukraine support so it can keep killing Russians until the price becomes unsustainable. It's not a perfect plan, and it's one both Europe and the US have been interrmitent on executing, but it's clearly working. Don't take my word for it, read Russian mil-bloggers.

7/ *"What the fuck are you talking about, Jesse?" meme* So a (US created) energy crisis in April of 2026 will compel the EU to abandon Ukraine and accept a peace deal that will see US owned pipelines that won't be finished for years eventually sell it Russian gas? Are you fucking high buddy?

8/ Every analyst who actually knows what they're talking about has been clear that while higher oil/gas prices as a result of the Strait crisis offer a reprieve for Russia, they don't solve any of their problems. It's a bandaid, not a prosthetic. Also, Ukrainian drones are working on it 😘.

9/ The 'hitler' stuff makes me really angry, because as always it positions the real problem not as the bad people doing bad things, but as the tone and linguistic choices of those condemning them. It's the "sure misogyny is bad, but feminists are so LOUD" of geopolotics. Fuck off Yanis.

10/ This just gets repetitive. It presumes Europe has a "peace" button it can push whenever but is too scared to for optics reasons. It presumes Putin is telling the truth that his sole concern is Russia's security, which even Putin's speeches make clear is not the point.

11/ First, lmao at the idea that Putin needs actual concessions to sell the war to his domestic constituency. He could declare tomorrow that the war is a crushing victory and that they've liberated brother Russians from the pedo-gays, and everyone would cheer. He just lies and invents things!

12/ Second, and setting aside the idea that big countries should get to veto the foreign policy choices of their smaller neighbours because something something Mearsheimer Spheres of Influence Realism... ... there were no NATO troops in Ukraine and none likely! Also, it's a DEFENSIVE alliance.

13/ Thirdly, this again simply ignores the literally hours of rambling speeches Putin has given about how Ukraine is a part of Russia, how it's not a real country, how it was stolen from Moscow etc. It cherry picks one of the 7 justifications Putin has offered for war.

14/ Fourthly, is the problem that NATO forces in Ukraine would be too strong for Russia to tolerate, or too weak and easily swept aside because it's all Starmer can muster? The goal of a peacekeeping force would be as a tripwire, so an attack is unthinkable. Children get this.

15/ I legitimately don't even know what he's on about here. The reason anyone is talking about Franco-British-German troops as peacekeepers or deal garauntors is that no one else is eager or willing. Because they don't trust Putin. Perhaps Yanis should consider why, or just ask Prigozhin.

16/ "Creative with issues of sovereignty and governance" is the sort of sentence you only ever seen written about other people's countries. Also, we tried that. It was Minsk I (Pt. 3) and Minsk II (Pt. 4). Somehow, it didn't help. Funny that.

17/ Yeah dude, absolutely vital we rebuild ties with the mighty and highly influential people in Russia's civil society. Real power centres, there. God, just say you missed doing cocaine off expensive sex workers in Moscow nightclubs on the Kremlin's dime and save us this sanctimonious drivel.

18/ I suppose if we do want to rebuild a sense of connection with Russia then sending Yanis to show them we have elites just as stupid, vanal, and easily duped by Russian propoganda as they do is a good opening gambit. Credit where credits due, more that unites than divides, etc.

19/ Jesus Christ how am I still barely half way through this? What day is it? Where am I? Send help.

20/ Russia already once garaunteed the Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity in the Budapest Memorandum, so that's worthless. A European security garauntee for Ukraine is called Ukraine joining NATO, the EU, or both. Putin pretty vehemently opposes that. I wonder why?

21/ So, the UK and France have to give up their nuclear weapons... and I guess Russia does too? Also, 300km?!? Kyiv is less than 300km even from the actual pre-2014 Russian border! Where is Ukraine supposed to pull its troops back to Yanis, Dover?

22/ I mean, sure, fine. A lot of those homes are now ruins because Russian military doctrine is to absolutely flatten villages with waves of artillery and drone strikes and advance once all cover is atomized but, ok. Also, presumably under Yanis-plan, a lot of those homes would be in Russia now?!

24/ Hahaha, yeah dude. Get that bag!

25/ Yeah dude, I'm sure Putin can't wait to frog march half his officer corps in front of a UN panel and have them be judged for Bucha and about 50,000 other atrocities. Real insight into the deep Russian soul you gained grinding on 19 year olds at the club.

26/ How about a European Comprehensive Security Agenda whereby a criminal petro-state in the region can't threaten, subvert and invade neighbours with no consequences? How about one where Europe's significant military budgets translate into effective deterrence? No? Just appeasement? Ok. Cool.

Dublin's power over Northern Ireland? Huh?