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Republicans in particular are instructed to lie on polls. The way to stir apathy in the voter base is to make races look like they are landslides in polls. This is a MAGA thing. NEVER believe political polls, get out and vote!!!

13 points? how is this any better than just guessing?

Do we really know anything? Recall that polling showed the 2024 election would be more favorable for Harris than it was. A reputable pollster in Iowa had Harris winning the state handily!

I appreciate this G. Also worth noting that Michigan just doesn’t have great polling in general I think

they're right

called it for aes hours ago

The average of all the polls predicted the result though lol

oh my goooooooodddfdddddffgdgdhfhfh

yeah rly ppl are freaking out waaaaay too much abt this aes was polling right around 50% in all the ones i saw aes didnt even underperform. the polls just undercounted stevens voters

Maybe that’s a reason either not to do primary polls, require every primary poll to include a margin of error of +/-13, or include a disclaimer that says “just remember voters-polls were off by 10-15 points in 2026!”

if a poll shows 46-34 with 20% undecided and then the undecided break 80% for the 34% candidate over the other, is that truly a polling “miss?” feels like it’s within the error bar / an outcome the poll is accounting for

Why? You can try campaigning hard on your actual principles in every part of whatever size jurisdiction you’re running in and compete for every vote. Then there’s a poll on Election Day.

But also I did think likelihood of voting was taken into consideration in at least some of these polls

The shock around this polling miss is a bit confusing to me, because has primary polling ever been good? I can't think of a single primary where polls were consistently in line with the final result.

Interesting article. Still very concerned that black voters went so hard for Stevens and what putting SC as first primary will mean

This underscores how the polls in other races (believed to be close) could be way off. For example, the Republican race for governor of Tennessee. It's possible Marsha Blackburn could lose. It's possible she wins by 20 points tomorrow. Nobody knows! Possible upset in TN-5 GOP primary (Ogles).

It is hard enough trying to figure who will turn out for general elections. It seems to be impossible for primary elections.

This would be a good thing to remind people of periodically when you’re quoting poll results in the future. I had no idea primary polls had that kind of error until just now.

You actually have no idea if this is true at all.

I hope so! But the question is can AES win independents? I am less convinced of that.

lol she absolutely would not have. Evidence by the fact that she lost her primary despite outspending the winner 12-1

McMorrow would have cruised. Not sure at all that's true of Stevens. She was a pretty bad candidate.

What you are not saying is thousands of white non urban voters who may have stayed at home or tempted to vote dem won’t because 1) Muslim 2) brown skin 3) their media telling everyone he is a commie Unless Detroit and Ann Arbor etc vote in numbers never seen this is a GOp gain and fair left

eh, Michigan polls not having a very good month, but it would be nice if there was something reliable to go on here.

State polling is a concentrated version of the sampling bias problem. Pollsters get so few responses, unless they use partisan sources. So they have to make huge assumptions. Once you get down to district level, the samples can get so bad your poll numbers may as well be RNG picks.

I think they're up for grabs. The Crowley camp's case is that the polls show he is in 2nd place so therefore only he can defeat Hong. Yet they don't provide any Crowley vision or plans or much substance at all. Its the Empty Suit Campaign.