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You nailed it.

This is partly because Claude is much less efficient than it otherwise could be if Anthropic wasn't a weird cult.

Deepseek (foss) at launch could do about 80% of what paid models could do, but that 80% encompasses most of the small tasks people actually use that isn't generative. I hear it runs fine on lower end hardware due to being less bloated. I have zero faith in ai being truly useful in a meaningful way.

Keeping them out of the reach of individuals is also a great way to build hype, on the other hand.

4.5% of ms office 365 users pay for copilot, 1% of users use it weekly. The hype is overblown. We've lost 2 years of chip fab to this.

Some of the people happily vibe coding will find the code making them very unhappy later, to be fair.