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Ballot #11 is from first-time voter Dan Szymborski. Digital Dandy selects 10 candidates and notes on his ballot that he would have selected two more with no 10-vote limit. Beltrán, Félix, Andruw and Pettitte are 3-for-3 among first-timers. In the Tracker*: tracker.fyi

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Johan fell off due to the competition of the spaces on the ballot during the year he made it. To me, he’s a surefire HOFer. As for the other comparisons, I’d choose Wright over Rollins due to his farstronger hitting during his peak and for Pettitte and KRod, I think starters are more valuable.

My line for whether to induct PED players into the Hall is drawn between the formalized drug tests after 2004 and whether a player is suspended or not from the test results. Pettitte was never suspended, so he belonged to the group of Bonds and Clemens, unlike ARod who is suspended for PED usage.

I'd say competition is a bigger factor than likeability for Johan. Andruw started the same year and barely stayed on the ballot with 11 HOFers and 6 PED guys + Vizquel all competing for votes as well. That ballot will be HOFers + players who didnt/wont get in bc of PED or other controversy.

In terms of head-to-head merit, yes. In terms of votes, Santana competed with 18 guys who had enough merit to either get in the HOF or stay on the ballot long enough despite PEDs. Wright's debut had 8-11 such guys. That is a lot more room to throw a vote to a player like Wright.

This reminded me of what I wanted to look at: who the 20 new voters voted for last year: Beltran 18x Pettite & Utley 13x Jones 12x A-Rod 11x Manny 10x Abreu 6x Felix 4x Buehrle 3x Rollins & Wright 2x Pedroia & Vizquel & K-Rod 1x 9 had 10 vote ballots and all with 6x or fewer wil likely gain.