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Philip Bump
@pbump.com

This is functionally equivalent to the CBS exec who hollered at the reporter about how much better she knew Mideast politics.

Philip Bump
@pbump.com

The number of shitty analyses that depend on "polls aren't picking up X!!!!!" arguments is itself uncountable.

27 reposts700 likes

Philip Bump
@pbump.com

The dynamic is that anecdotalists were very mad when polling averages revealed that anecdotes were subpar predictors for election results and then they were very happy when 2016 offered a reminder to everyone that polls themselves were subject to errors and so maybe anecdotes were just as good?

Anthony B
@getreal.earth

“I have never once seen X,” or, “I’ve been doing Y my whole life and have always seen Z,” is never a good argument.

Eli Friedmann
@eligit.bsky.social

I would hasten add that the polls in 2016 were actually quite accurate. Once Comey dropped his bomb the polling took an absolute nosedive for Hillary. Like a plane shot out of the sky. That trajectory ended where it did. I remember following along day by day, watching it all quickly fall apart.

LurkyMcLurk
@lurkymclurk.bsky.social

Yup, we in the tribe are always gonna be a (very sexy, and handsome) rounding error in almost every poll everywhere except maybe a few east coast states